ATL : EX TOMAS - Discussion

[snowcane180]

My fault Ivanhater. I just came on here yesterday.

[cycloneye]

Plenty of flight level winds in the 60's and uncontaminated.

180900 1450N 06310W 8426 01550 0102 +129 +069 104061 062 039 007 00
180930 1452N 06310W 8432 01549 0098 +137 +071 103062 063 037 007 00
181000 1454N 06310W 8430 01551 0099 +136 +071 101060 061 037 007 00
181030 1455N 06309W 8429 01551 0101 +136 +072 103059 060 037 005 00
181100 1457N 06309W 8433 01546 0097 +144 +073 104062 063 037 005 00
181130 1458N 06309W 8426 01554 0098 +144 +073 106062 063 037 005 00

[snowcane180]

This storm looks better than wilma at peak intensity.

[KWT]

Nothing really there from recon to suggest this is a hurricane, wind shear really has caused some large damage to this system.

Remember though people this is far from done yet, though it is weakening conditions improve alot, esp when it slows down and starts to gain poleward motion in a few days time.

[Ivanhater]

This storm looks better than wilma at peak intensity.

What in the world is this supposed to mean?

[snowcane180]

It means that the storm looks pathetic because of wind shear.sarcasm

[neospaceblue]

Does anyone think this could ramp back up soon? And what are the chances of a Hazel like track? I live in southeast Virginia and all of the older people around here can tell you that Hazel was worse than Isabel.

[KWT]

I'm not sure if its going to ramp-up soon but nearly all the major models show at least some restrengthening occuring back upto a 2/3 before it makes landfall on Hispaniola, where abouts will probably decide whether this is just a deadly storm or one that is remembered in the same ranks of the all time worst I reckon...

[HurricaneStriker]

I caught this bit from Jeff Masters' blog, if no one noticed:

An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft arrived at Tomas at 2pm this afternoon, and found a much weaker storm. The 2pm EDT center fix found that the pressure has risen to 994 mb, and the strongest surface winds were barely Category 1 hurricane strength, 74 mph. The aircraft found the the eyewall had mostly collapsed. Satellite loops of Tomas also show a significant degradation in the appearance of the storm in recent hours. The storm is highly asymmetric with very little heavy thunderstorm activity or upper level outflow on the west side, and the hurricane has only one prominent spiral band, on the east side. Wind shear is a high 20 knots due to strong upper level west-southwest winds, and these winds are driving dry air at mid-levels of the atmosphere into Tomas' west side, as seen on water vapor satellite imagery.

[snowcane180]

NO! not at all. when td5 was in the gulf looping around. It was suppose to become a cat 1 hurricane. What makes this storm different especially when there is unexpected windshear

[HurricaneStriker]

Tomas vs. Hazel

TOMAS:


HAZEL:

[gatorcane]

I'm impressed how the ecmwf called for this to weaken to a depression as it entered the eastern Caribbean.

Looking at tomas now ecmwf is verifying.

Gfs is missing the intensity forecast on this one.

[Ivanhater]

I'm impressed how the ecmwf called for this to weaken to a depression as it entered the eastern Caribbean.

Looking at tomas now ecmwf is verifying.

Gfs is missing the intensity forecast on this one.

Keep in mind, the GFS never really showed anything until the stall. That is when the real intensification starts, according to the models anyway.

[hurricaneCW]

Ultimately, the zone of death is still alive and well. Tomas developed prior to the eastern Caribbean and now it is getting killed in the eastern Caribbean. I wonder if Tomas will truly go away and become something bigger this week.

[cycloneye]

Ultimately, the zone of death is still alive and well. Tomas developed prior to the eastern Caribbean and now it is getting killed in the eastern Caribbean. I wonder if Tomas will truly go away and become something bigger this week.

Shear will relax by 72 hours allowing for reintensification.

Code: Select all

ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *      GOES DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *      OHC  DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *  TOMAS       AL212010  10/31/10  18 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120

SHEAR (KT)        19    23    23    23    19    24    14    14     6     5     6    17    14


[TheDreamTraveler]

There's a reason the NHC kept the intensity at hurricane strength until Wednesday or so. Otherwise Tomas would have already become a major hurricane by now. Though I'm sure they didn't expect Tomas to weaken this much.

[LarryWx]

And what are the chances of a Hazel like track? I live in southeast Virginia and all of the older people around here can tell you that Hazel was worse than Isabel.

I'd go with about a 1/2 of 1% chance (1 in 200) of this hitting somewhere along the U.S. east coast as a still intact TC and about a 1 in 2,000 chance of this hitting the U.S. east coast as a cat. 4. This is all based on a combo of the continued unanimous agreement from the models and very strong support against a hit from climo.

[cycloneye]

Eyewall Dissipated

This is the second decoded VDM with the news of the eyewall that has dissipated.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 31st day of the month at 19:21Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number & Year: 21L in 2010
Storm Name: Tomas (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 08
A. Time of Center Fix: 31st day of the month at 18:58:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 14°18'N 64°34'W (14.3N 64.5667W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 301 miles (485 km) to the SSE (161°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,391m (4,564ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 61kts (~ 70.2mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 31 nautical miles (36 statute miles) to the ENE (72°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 101° at 65kts (From between the E and ESE at ~ 74.8mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 54 nautical miles (62 statute miles) to the NE (55°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 995mb (29.38 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,528m (5,013ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 25°C (77°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,513m (4,964ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 18°C (64°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 65kts (~ 74.8mph) in the northeast quadrant at 18:39:20Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
SFC CNTR BEARING 180 AT APPROX 2 NM FROM FL CNTR
EYEWALL DISSIPATED.

[wxman57]

I'm impressed how the ecmwf called for this to weaken to a depression as it entered the eastern Caribbean.

Looking at tomas now ecmwf is verifying.

Gfs is missing the intensity forecast on this one.

But the EC never developed it BEFORE the Caribbean. It was barely identifiable in the pressure field east of the Caribbean. GFS didn't develop it until Tuesday south of the DR. No model developed it until Tuesday.

[Ivanhater]

I'm impressed how the ecmwf called for this to weaken to a depression as it entered the eastern Caribbean.

Looking at tomas now ecmwf is verifying.

Gfs is missing the intensity forecast on this one.

But the EC never developed it BEFORE the Caribbean. It was barely identifiable in the pressure field east of the Caribbean. GFS didn't develop it until Tuesday south of the DR. No model developed it until Tuesday.

Well a few days ago the Euro did develop it before the Islands, valid last Wednesday. Not that is matters much now.