ATL : EX TOMAS - Discussion

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I think 20 kt shear and dry air intrusion will continue to weaken the storm
to a 70 mph tropical storm. My concern is when the shear
is forecasted to weaken. Then the concern to Haiti increases...
it is possible that the shear moves the convection away
and east of Haiti/DR while weakening the storm. However,
the NHC stills forecasts a major hurricane.

[snowcane180]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


I think this storm will continue to weaken till tomorrow afternoon to a 50mph. Hold that strength till wednesday morning and then undergo explosive intensification. from a 50mph to a 135 cat 4 in two days. Then make landfall in eastern cuba as a 110mph storm. Then i expect it to just shoot off north and affect bermuda as a strong ts. JmO!

[cycloneye]

I think this storm will continue to weaken till tomorrow afternoon to a 50mph. Hold that strength till wednesday morning and then undergo explosive intensification. from a 50mph to a 135 cat 4 in two days. Then make landfall in eastern cuba as a 110mph storm. Then i expect it to just shoot off north and affect bermuda as a strong ts. JmO!

I added our disclaimer.

[cycloneye]

Stop the presses!!

74kts at flight level

200600 1442N 06446W 8434 01508 0047 +145 +134 098073 074 055 004 00

[neospaceblue]

Stop the presses!!

74kts at flight level

200600 1442N 06446W 8434 01508 0047 +145 +134 098073 074 055 004 00

Sooo...what does this mean? Are we using a 80% or 90% reduction with this one?

[x-y-no]

5pm advisory takes Tomas Inland over Haiti day 5 as a 90 knot storm.

[cyclonic chronic]

it looks as if the eastern carib graveyard (halloweenie, huh?) has taken a toll. dont ever write off a storm when it has a good inner core in the carib. this storm has been full of suprises, the foremost being its formation, and reintensification is deffinately a possibility. its a long way till wed.- thur. and hurricanes often change strength with no rhyme or reason. please all in the north,north-eastern caribean islands be wary of tomas until it passes.

[Ptarmigan]

Tomas has weakened greatly due to windshear. However, I think it has a chance of re-strengthening. Haiti should really keep an eye on Tomas.

[snowcane180]

Does that mean its still a hurricane?

[emeraldislencguy]

the last few sat pics looks like a few more deeper reds are showing up
does anyone else see this

[TheDreamTraveler]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 312030
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
500 PM AST SUN OCT 31 2010

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS TOMAS WEAKER...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 64.9W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM W OF ST. LUCIA
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

000
WTNT41 KNHC 312031
TCDAT1
HURRICANE TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
500 PM AST SUN OCT 31 2010

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
TOMAS HAS WEAKENED A LITTLE MORE. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MAXIMUM
850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 74 KT...AN SFMR SURFACE WIND OF 64
KT...AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 994 MB. THESE DATA SUPPORT
MAINTAINING TOMAS AS A HURRICANE WITH AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 65
KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT AND A LITTLE FASTER THAN
BEFORE...280/10. TOMAS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT REMAINS SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE.
BEYOND THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND
GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AS THE STEERING CURRENTS WEAKEN DUE
TO A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN
THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN...THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES AS TO WHERE AND WHEN THE NORTHWARD TURN OCCURS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE NEXT 3 TO
4 DAYS...AND THEN LIES A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE LAST TRACK TO
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE. THIS TRACK
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS...GFDL...ECMWF...AND
UKMET MODELS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG-TERM
FORECAST POINTS ARE OF LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN NORMAL.

SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING SEEMS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF 20-25 KT AND SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUE
TO IMPACT THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND IN
THE GUIDANCE AND IS ONCE AGAIN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD...BRINGING TOMAS
BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. BEYOND A COUPLE
OF DAYS...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN WHILE TOMAS REMAINS OVER
FAVORABLE OCEANIC CONDITIONS. ALL OF THE INTENSITY MODELS RESPOND
AND SHOW THE SYSTEM INTENSIFYING IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY RANGE...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT AND IS AT THE HIGH END OF THE
GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/2100Z 14.4N 64.9W 65 KT
12HR VT 01/0600Z 14.7N 66.4W 60 KT
24HR VT 01/1800Z 15.0N 68.3W 55 KT
36HR VT 02/0600Z 15.0N 69.9W 55 KT
48HR VT 02/1800Z 15.0N 71.3W 60 KT
72HR VT 03/1800Z 15.3N 72.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 04/1800Z 16.0N 73.0W 80 KT
120HR VT 05/1800Z 18.5N 72.5W 90 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN

[snowcane180]

Where are you seeing that at?

[Macrocane]

From the last vortex message:

MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 74 KT N QUAD 20:06:10Z
SURFACE CENTER SE OF POSITION APPROX 2 NM.
SPIRAL BANDING ON NORTH SIDE.
MAX OUTBOUND SFC WIND 62 KTS N QUAD 20:02:50Z

[cycloneye]

Third Decoded VDM

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 31st day of the month at 20:32Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number & Year: 21L in 2010
Storm Name: Tomas (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 13
A. Time of Center Fix: 31st day of the month at 20:00:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 14°22'N 64°47'W (14.3667N 64.7833W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 292 miles (470 km) to the SSE (163°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,403m (4,603ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 42kts (~ 48.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 1 nautical miles (1 statute miles) to the NNW (330°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 226° at 38kts (From the SW at ~ 43.7mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the SE (143°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 996mb (29.41 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,514m (4,967ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,504m (4,934ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 19°C (66°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Wind Outbound: 74kts (~ 85.2mph) in the north quadrant at 20:06:10Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 74kts (~ 85.2mph) in the north quadrant at 20:06:10Z
Maximum Surface (likely estimated by SFMR) Wind Outbound: 62kts (~ 71.3mph) in the north quadrant at 20:02:50Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
SURFACE CENTER SE OF POSITION APPROX 2 NM.
SPIRAL BANDING ON NORTH SIDE.

[Aquawind]

Barely a Hurricane..

[snowcane180]

More like a td trying 2 get its act together.

[wxman57]

Stop the presses!!

74kts at flight level

200600 1442N 06446W 8434 01508 0047 +145 +134 098073 074 055 004 00

Sooo...what does this mean? Are we using a 80% or 90% reduction with this one?

Those FL-SFC reductions are not valid outside a hurricane's eyewall, and Tomas has no eyewall and only minimal convection. Tomas' winds are likely 50-60 kts now.

[neospaceblue]

What's funny is that he looked WAAAYYYY better when he was a "disturbance" a couple of days ago.

[Ntxw]

Doesn't look too good for now. Probably takes a day or two to revamp again if that.

[45NWOrlando]

5:26 AM EDT:

Hewanorra International Airport, Saint Lucia, hasn't reported the weather conditions since noon, local time.

That may be due to the fact that Hewanorra has been closed because of flooding, according to the latest public advisory from the NHC. Then again, Arnos Vale in St. Vincent hasn’t made any reports since 10:00 a.m. I guess they’re closed too.

Closed Caribbean island airports don't report weather conditions when they aren't operational?