ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[Air Force Met]

Enjoy ladies and gentlemen...you are watching cyclogenesis...pressures are falling like a rock now...LLC will form East of the current 18z position, IMO

It is all relative. For a LLC with no convection this is like a rock. 30mb in 6 hours is only for very well established convective tropical cyclones.

Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 1007.2 mb
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -2.2 mb ( Falling )

I agree...this is on its way now. The broad low has stoped moving west and is now getting pulled back to the east towards the convection. You can also see the low level cu field along the 15 latitude from 80-82W beginning to veer as the pressures are lowering. Something is going to try and get going near 16/80...whether its a new low or the weak low getting sucked under...I feel pretty confident now...thinking 80-85% chance.

[rockyman]

Wow! I've spent the last 4 hours browsing the board but neglected to run IR sat loops...I just did, and the difference is amazing...convection is really blossoming near the "old center"

[cycloneye]

AFM ,do you think NHC may issue a special TWO or they will wait to the 8 PM one and up the %? IMO I say at next TWO will be 50%.

[crimi481]

I thing its good to "pull away" -with wide sat loop - then go zoom crazy

[Clint_TX]

AFM, I'm still thinking there's a real shot of it going east of us, the models mishandling summer troughs notwithstanding. It just looks like there will be little keeping it from going north. Thoughts?

[ronjon]

I agree AFM. The LLC is becoming elongated east-west and will probably relocate under the heavy convection just to its east. After that occurs, we'll probably have a tropical cyclone.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[I-wall]

Could a new LLC be forming under that blob of convection southwest of Jamaica?

[Air Force Met]

AFM ,do you think NHC may issue a special TWO or they will wait to the 8 PM one and up the %? IMO I say at next TWO will be 50%.

They will wait...but I would expect at least a 50%...if not a 60% or higher.

[I-wall]

If a depression does form, wouldnt it just continue going west or WNW? I thought only the stronger systems were pulled north by approaching troughs?

[rockyman]

Since 93L has taken so long to develop, it will potentially be within "5 day striking distance" of the CONUS. With that in mind (especially this year with the oil), I would imagine the NHC will spend even more time than usual on their first forecast.

[Air Force Met]

AFM, I'm still thinking there's a real shot of it going east of us, the models mishandling summer troughs notwithstanding. It just looks like there will be little keeping it from going north. Thoughts?

Hey clint...


I think there is a chance it will get pulled north...but stall. I am really sold on the Euro solution to the upper air and it really doesn't like the trof...and neither do I. Even the HGX guys say they think the GFS solution on pulling a front through here is out to lunch...and that is the problem I am having. The GFS is so bullish on the trof is gives us FROPA and I just can't buy into that solution. So...either the EURO will be right and the ridge weakens enough to allow Alex (to be) to head towards BRO/CRP...or there may be an in between solution where it gets pulled north then stalls...then moves west as the ridge builds back on Wednesday....

[Ikester]

Since 93L has taken so long to develop, it will potentially be within "5 day striking distance" of the CONUS. With that in mind (especially this year with the oil), I would imagine the NHC will spend even more time than usual on their first forecast.

Keep in mind that there are new changes this year. The cone is narrower and watches and warnings are hoisted 48 and 36 hours in advance, respectively.

[Air Force Met]

Could a new LLC be forming under that blob of convection southwest of Jamaica?

Yes...that is where something is happening. It is trying to pull the low under it...but it may also be forming its own low on its own.

Take a look at the cu field near 15-16N and 82W...watch how it is now trying to move east. Also note how the cu field is veering with time along 15N and 79-82W

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=16&lon=-80&info=vis&zoom=1&width=2800&height=2000&type=Animation&numframes=20&map=latlon

[Iune]

Image of storm:

[SunnyThoughts]

Well, when AFM speaks...I certainly listen. I respect him immensely as a met as well as the other mets on this site.. Thanks AFM for your participation on this site. WE definitely need your analysis this year, where the GOM is concerned.

[Florida1118]

I like how we started off " It has a good chance of development" then " It looks like crap, it wont do anything" and just going back and forth for the whole forum.

[KWT]

I'd go for a 60% now from the NHC, they seem to be rather keen on going to a high chance once they see a LLC developing with the models suggesting development.

[SunnyThoughts]

Since 93L has taken so long to develop, it will potentially be within "5 day striking distance" of the CONUS. With that in mind (especially this year with the oil), I would imagine the NHC will spend even more time than usual on their first forecast.

I totally agree, I heard where the folks working on the relief wells need a fairly big lead time in order to prepare and get out of the way.

[antonlsu]

Looks like she is finally getting her act together, should be interesting to see how much she develops tonight.

[HURAKAN]

I like how we started off " It has a good chance of development" then " It looks like crap, it wont do anything" and just going back and forth for the whole forum.

Welcome to the Hurricane Season!!!