ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO - DISCUSSION

[tolakram]

IR loop shows convection building near center ... ish.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... =spect.pal

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[KWT]

Withoutn a doubt an awful looking borderline TS thats for sure, but then again if it has the winds then it probably should be considered for upgrading...

Looks like much more flooding is about to occur in the Rio Grande region, more or less hitting the exact same spot as Alex did...

[HURAKAN]

So far, no west winds from RECON. Will the NHC just take off the plug right before landfall?

Interesting developments!!

[tolakram]

I think they'll assume there are west winds somewhere. Looks like the center might be reorganizing, which I imagine (but do not know for a fact) would make it difficult to find west winds.

[HURAKAN]

I think they'll assume there are west winds somewhere. Looks like the center might be reorganizing, which I imagine (but do not know for a fact) would make it difficult to find west winds.

True, I don't think they will turn it off just before landfall.

[Thunder44]

9am winds are now out of SSW at Tampico,MX. So it may have opened up now or it's reforming further north.

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMTM.html

[ROCK]

Allison was a pitiful excuse for a TS also. Though it did have a stronger LLC but it was a sheared mess. I think they will upgrade this one based on surface winds alone. JMO....we will see. Not much time left.

[KWT]

It quite possibly is reforming, certainly an interesting call for the NHC. They may upgrade and state the center maybe reforming based on recon but we shall see!

[srainhoutx]

NESDIS is suggesting another 6-10 hours over water...

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 07/08/10 1232Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1215Z JANKOT
AMSR-E 0839Z
.
LOCATION...TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...LCH...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...BRO...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...HEAVY RAIN OVER S TEXAS FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO.
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...FIRST FEW VIS IMAGES OF THE DAY SHOW
SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION MOVING NORTHWEST INTO SE/S TEXAS AND IR
IMAGERY SHOWS BEST ENHANCEMENT INVOF VICTORIA COUNTY. TROPICAL MOISTURE IS
IN PLACE WITH THE BLENDED TPW PRODUCT SHOWING PWATS AROUND 2.6". MANUAL
SATELLITE ESTIMATES SUGGEST RAIN RATES ARE 1.25"/30 MIN IN THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION/CELL MERGERS. A 0839Z MICROWAVE AMSR-E PASS INDICATED AN AREAL
AVERAGE INSTANTANEOUS RAIN RATE OF .601 ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER MOST
CONVECTION OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION. EXPECT RATES TO INCREASE WITH
ADDITIONAL DAY TIME HEATING AS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL IN
THE NEXT 6-10 HOURS. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER SHOULD
IMPACT S TEXAS/MEXICO WITH RATES OF 1-2"/HR.

AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC OUTLINING HEAVY RAIN THREAT AREA SHOULD
BE AVAILABLE ON THE WEBISTE LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES.

SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1230Z-1530Z....HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT TERM
OUTLOOK BASED ON RECENT TRENDS IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...EXPECT HEAVY RAIN
TO CONTINUE TO ROTATE INTO S/SE TEXAS THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH RAIN
RATES OF 1-2"/HR. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SHOULD BEGIN IMPACTING S TEXAS IN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS WITH
SIMILAR RAIN RATES. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN OVER
THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS OVER MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.

[KWT]

Recon so far isn't really even hinting at a west wind, would have to be a very small and weak LLC if it currenty exists.

[thetruesms]

Wow, another softball game, another big ramp up while I'm gone - that's two weeks in a row now! Of course, this thing is really in a spot where it refuses to make anything of itself, but doesn't have the common decency to just die.

This thing looks much better on radar than what recon's finding out there. But then again, at this range, the radar beam is ~9000 feet above the ground, so they're not exactly looking at the same thing, either.

[HURAKAN]

9am winds are now out of SSW at Tampico,MX. So it may have opened up now or it's reforming further north.

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMTM.html

Tampico is located at 22.2°N, TD #2 is at 25.7°N.

Can't be related

[StormClouds63]

So is this mess going to be upgraded to Bonnie? One of the worst looking systems in quite a while. However, flooding a real concern regardless.

[HURAKAN]

So is this mess going to be upgraded to Bonnie? One of the worst looking systems in quite a while. However, flooding a real concern regardless.

Surface winds support a TS. Lets see what the NHC thinks

[HURAKAN]

Latest radar

[HURAKAN]

NW winds found and 44 knots at the surface. I think that will do the trick

[Bocadude85]

NW winds found and 44 knots at the surface. I think that will do the trick

I would think that would do the trick but I guess we shall see

[djones65]

It's kind of weird that observations from Port Isabel located near 26.0N and 97.2W are reporting light NNW winds at 5 or 6 knots and a pressure of 1008.3 mb while the AF recon has only been showing SE winds light at similar location... and the extrapolated pressure is slightly higher by approximately 1 mb from the aircraft than the Port Isabel buoy. SFMR recently reported 39 knots showing that surface winds (if the SFMR is accurate) are still tropical storm force offshore... I'm glad I don't work at the NHC... this would be a tough forecast to make and one in which no matter what direction you go someone will probably be disappointed or want to disagree with the decision... Actually, who am I kidding? I would LOVE to work at the NHC!!! LOL But, what should they do? Since recon cannot close off a circulation should it be downgraded to a wave while heavy rains and possibly tropical storm force winds may still come onshore? Since radar shows a good low/mid level circulation and SFMR has reported numerous 35 to 40 knot winds go ahead and upgrade to Bonnie under the assumption that a circulation center does exist, but too broad to close it off at this time? Keep it as a depression and keep everything status quo since tropical storm warnings are still in effect not upgrading wouldn't hurt, and that would be better than declaring it as a wave? Lots of tough decisions... I personally would vote for the last option and keep it as a depression so that warnings can be justified still and see if a surface circulation shows up in subsequent obs from the recon. What do y'all think?

[Cryomaniac]

NW winds found and 44 knots at the surface. I think that will do the trick

You'd think so, but you never know with the NHC.