ATL: Ex COLIN - Discussion

[SoupBone]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/sal/splitEW.jpg


Look at that massive SAL outbreak being caused by that strong high pressure.


If Danielle doesn't form in the Caribbean we may be seeing a lull of activity very soon.

I have to say I'm a bit obsessed with looking at the SAL maps. That is a pretty massive chunk of dry dusty air. What a crazy season so far.

[Category 5]

Theres your LLC, rapidly exiting the rest of the storm, basically decoupling itself. Wouldn't be shocked if the NHC killed this off later.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-rgb.html

Cyclosuicide.

[MWatkins]

It's moving at 30+ knots because it's trapped in that easterly surge (and has been since yesterday)...that dry...stable easterly surge.

Colin was simply a secondary feature...but again...it's a candidate for redevelopment by the weekend.

But for now, in terms of a tropical cyclone, it's gone. It's been gone since the first visibles came out this morning.

MW

[loup-garou]

Tropical storms can be generate copious amounts of rain. Houston was flooded by such a storm, but this could have been because of poor architecture. We should all hope this dangerous Colin system stays well offshore of the islands and the U.S. coast.

[Weatherfreak000]

I agree with other posters here...and i'm shocked at how unfavorable the Atlantic is right now...but it makes me curious.

Consider that it's making up 12 hours of distance on the forecast points...could this completely outrun the weakness?

[I-wall]

Something has got to give, Colin is racing way ahead of the forecast points. Either Colin gets to the western edge of the high and begins the turn earlier or Colin gets farther west before turning. IMO, it can't happen along the NHC's track because Colin at this speed is going to hit the 11am 24 hour forecast longitude point about 13 hours early!

How can a system that is so weak and shallow feel a weakness in the ridge? Wouldnt a system this weak be steered by the low level easterlies?

[hurricaneCW]

I just hope this doesn't pull an Andrew or Katrina and explode further west if the environment becomes favorable. Right now it's done though.

[bvigal]

You can really see all the features that have been mentioned in the last two pages (excluding SAL) on this black and white water vapor loop: http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/atwv.html

[sunnyday]

Local mets say that S FLA will not be affected by the storm. However, it is 2300 miles away. Can the landfall predictions be accurate at such a distance?

[meebo]

I just hope this doesn't pull an Andrew or Katrina and explode further west if the environment becomes favorable. Right now it's done though.

Dont worry there is no doom

[Florida1118]

Local mets say that S FLA will not be affected by the storm. However, it is 2300 miles away. Can the landfall predictions be accurate at such a distance?

probably not unless they can see the future. I remember in 2004 when charley was coming, we were in the center of the cone and all they had to say was..."its a long way out." 36hs from landfall..."Prepare now but i dont think it will make it here..." And what do you know. I think they like to calm people down and not get things wrong. Needless to say we dont need a end of the world Met.

[cheezyWXguy]

I just hope this doesn't pull an Andrew or Katrina and explode further west if the environment becomes favorable. Right now it's done though.

Dont worry there is no doom

Im actually not so sure of that. Multiple models take this up to hurricane strength by 5 days after weakening it in the short term. Not a certainty but that idea certainly gets my attention, especially if it ends up further south near the bahamas.

[AJC3]

Also the convection building to the NW is not directly associated with Colin.. however it provide a better assessment of the environment ahead of colin.. clearly some more moisture exists and better divergence aloft although its a very narrow area it is possible to see a slight improvement especially if it were to slow down some..

These are excellent and important points. Colin's weak (open?) circulation is indeed no longer seriously capable of producing significant convection, compared to what is occurring with the larger synoptic scale lift on the divergent east side of the large upper trough to it's NW. Until the environment gets better for Colin (or, more likely, what will be it's remnants), I think we're probably back to looking for signs of a center regenerating along a wave axis for the next few days.

[Frank2]

What's left of Colin is about to be sheared by the ULL to it's west:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/atwv.html

stand by for the downgrade...

[vacanechaser]

unfavorable right now?? yes.. but that was sortof expected... the mjo is in a negative phase... so to have even gotten this to develop is not bad really... the azores high is to strong right now... and like i said, the mjo being negative and this developing to me signals, look out when things line up... remember, we are already 2 storms ahead of 2004 at this time... things will change and can change quickly..



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Riptide]

What's left of Colin is about to be sheared by the ULL to it's west:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/atwv.html

stand by for the downgrade...

Wrong.

[thetruesms]

Theres your LLC, rapidly exiting the rest of the storm, basically decoupling itself. Wouldn't be shocked if the NHC killed this off later.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-rgb.html

Cyclosuicide.

Well, on the plus side, figuring out where the LLC's at just got a whole lot easier than it had been the rest of today

[RL3AO]

I can't remember seeing something move this fast in the tropics.

[Texas Snowman]

Local mets say that S FLA will not be affected by the storm. However, it is 2300 miles away. Can the landfall predictions be accurate at such a distance?

No, they can not.

[wxman57]

Theres your LLC, rapidly exiting the rest of the storm, basically decoupling itself. Wouldn't be shocked if the NHC killed this off later.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-rgb.html

Cyclosuicide.

Well, on the plus side, figuring out where the LLC's at just got a whole lot easier than it had been the rest of today

I always say, it's a lot easier to find an LLC without all that nasty convection obscuring the view. In this case, it looks like a remnant eddy moving off at over 35 mph to the WNW. Regeneration chances look low. Even if something should survive the impending shear, then all we'll have is a sheared wave moving into an area of less shear. Development chances would be no greater than with any other wave.

By the way, I measure that small eddy to be 37 miles across near 15.8N/53.2W 30 minutes ago.