ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[rockyman]

Since 93L has taken so long to develop, it will potentially be within "5 day striking distance" of the CONUS. With that in mind (especially this year with the oil), I would imagine the NHC will spend even more time than usual on their first forecast.

Keep in mind that there are new changes this year. The cone is narrower and watches and warnings are hoisted 48 and 36 hours in advance, respectively.

Yes, thanks for the reminder! It's going to be very interesting to see how the new watch/warning system plays out.

For those who haven't heard about the changes, click http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/nhc_new_2010.pdf

[Stormcenter]

Can you please put a big red dot on where the center would/could be because it's still
hard to tell IMO? Thanks.

Image of storm:

[Ikester]

Since 93L has taken so long to develop, it will potentially be within "5 day striking distance" of the CONUS. With that in mind (especially this year with the oil), I would imagine the NHC will spend even more time than usual on their first forecast.

I totally agree, I heard where the folks working on the relief wells need a fairly big lead time in order to prepare and get out of the way.

There are private mets in Houston that give a weeks lead time for approaching storms. I can tell you that 93l has been tracked, logged, honed in on, analyzed and photographed more than the Afghan desert. I can assure you, the rigs in the gulf have been warned of a possible hurricane days ago.

[HURAKAN]

Fresh!

[Clint_TX]

AFM, I'm still thinking there's a real shot of it going east of us, the models mishandling summer troughs notwithstanding. It just looks like there will be little keeping it from going north. Thoughts?

Hey clint...


I think there is a chance it will get pulled north...but stall. I am really sold on the Euro solution to the upper air and it really doesn't like the trof...and neither do I. Even the HGX guys say they think the GFS solution on pulling a front through here is out to lunch...and that is the problem I am having. The GFS is so bullish on the trof is gives us FROPA and I just can't buy into that solution. So...either the EURO will be right and the ridge weakens enough to allow Alex (to be) to head towards BRO/CRP...or there may be an in between solution where it gets pulled north then stalls...then moves west as the ridge builds back on Wednesday....

Thanks man, the stall would be below par, I would imagine the conditions would be ripe.

[Dean4Storms]

I see it as well AFM, looks like the CU field is getting drawn back eastward toward the convection now. Think we see cyclogenesis either overnight or by noon tomorrow.

[Dean4Storms]

All is going to depend on how far south the trough digs and how quickly this system deepens and its overall speed and course over the next two days to see where it ends up. Too early yet to say with any 100% certainty. I'm still trying to understand the GFS developing a low near the coast of AL/FL with a TC in the Gulf.

[KWT]

Think the previous tighter LLC near the coast has opened up again, still got a broad low but I wouldn't be all that surprised if that signals a relocation eastwards.

[Sambucol]

AFM, I'm still thinking there's a real shot of it going east of us, the models mishandling summer troughs notwithstanding. It just looks like there will be little keeping it from going north. Thoughts?

Hey clint...


I think there is a chance it will get pulled north...but stall. I am really sold on the Euro solution to the upper air and it really doesn't like the trof...and neither do I. Even the HGX guys say they think the GFS solution on pulling a front through here is out to lunch...and that is the problem I am having. The GFS is so bullish on the trof is gives us FROPA and I just can't buy into that solution. So...either the EURO will be right and the ridge weakens enough to allow Alex (to be) to head towards BRO/CRP...or there may be an in between solution where it gets pulled north then stalls...then moves west as the ridge builds back on Wednesday....

Thanks man, the stall would be below par, I would imagine the conditions would be ripe.

As of today, does this mean it's most likely going to come ashore somewhere along the Texas coast rather than along eastern Louisiana to Florida?

[Ikester]

Until there is a fixed center and a developed storm, I don't think any stretch of coast is "in the clear" quite yet. Though I will agree with AFM, the trough is WAY overdone by the gfs. Think about it, when was the last time we had a cold front clear the coast in LATE June?

[wxman57]

This is the area AFM is talking about (yellow circle). Just ahead of the convective burst. Fairly far south. Would lend credence to the ECMWF track toward northern Mexico or far south TX. Not a high confidence forecast yet, though. I'm afraid it has at least a 50% shot at development, probably higher.

[lrak]

This is the area AFM is talking about (yellow circle). Just ahead of the convective burst. Fairly far south. Would lend credence to the ECMWF track toward northern Mexico or far south TX. Not a high confidence forecast yet, though. I'm afraid it has at least a 50% shot at development, probably higher.

ACK...South TX?

[Air Force Met]

I see it as well AFM, looks like the CU field is getting drawn back eastward toward the convection now. Think we see cyclogenesis either overnight or by noon tomorrow.

I agree 100%...and just briefed a similar time frame...

[KWT]

I agree Wxman57 I really can't see the other models coming off to be honest the GFS is usually too agressive with these systems anyway.

I'm fully expecting a lopsided system to develop, probably low end TS before Yucatan, I doubt it'll change that apperence though the ECM does weaken shear about 12-24hrs before landfall so it could well strengthen towards land. I'm favouring a landfall location close to Dolly.

I was just starting to have doubts before that LLC formed!

[Dean4Storms]

This is the area AFM is talking about (yellow circle). Just ahead of the convective burst. Fairly far south. Would lend credence to the ECMWF track toward northern Mexico or far south TX. Not a high confidence forecast yet, though. I'm afraid it has at least a 50% shot at development, probably higher.

I'm seeing it at 16N 82W Approx.

[Air Force Met]

All is going to depend on how far south the trough digs and how quickly this system deepens and its overall speed and course over the next two days to see where it ends up. Too early yet to say with any 100% certainty. I'm still trying to understand the GFS developing a low near the coast of AL/FL with a TC in the Gulf.

I'm still trying to understand the GFS pulling a front through SE TX in July...

[HouTXmetro]

Think the previous tighter LLC near the coast has opened up again, still got a broad low but I wouldn't be all that surprised if that signals a relocation eastwards.

Sure looks that way to me...or it's being pulled under the convection.

[KWT]

I see it as well AFM, looks like the CU field is getting drawn back eastward toward the convection now. Think we see cyclogenesis either overnight or by noon tomorrow.

I think I'm seeing the previous tighter LLC starting to open up, so this is probably the first phase of the new LLC getting ready to form under the convection.

Recon will very likely fly now we know we have a LLC and convection is close by...

[Nederlander]

Is Recon going to get after this thing tomorrow?

edit: beat me to it KWT

[wxman57]

This is the area AFM is talking about (yellow circle). Just ahead of the convective burst. Fairly far south. Would lend credence to the ECMWF track toward northern Mexico or far south TX. Not a high confidence forecast yet, though. I'm afraid it has at least a 50% shot at development, probably higher.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/92La.jpg

ACK...South TX?

I thought you've been crying for rain for the past few years?