ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO - DISCUSSION

[Air Force Met]

Yep, NHC put the center just offshore Port Isabel (the L on my map the previous page) at 26N/97W. No change in intensity, which looks correct. Just a TD.

Works for me. In our unit hurricane competition I have 1 name storm hitting TX this year...and I was afraid I was going to waste it on this one...

Dodged a bullet.

[funster]

No Bonnie. Little TD 2 ran out of time. Winds not strong enough as wxman57 explained above. Looks like a little burst near the coast. If TD 2 had six more hours, it might have made it. More rain for S. Texas. Hopefully, there won't be a third system coming through.

[Dick Pache]

Will Bonnie Jump out of the Cake?

[tolakram]

Beach Cams

http://www.spadre.com/beachcam.htm

http://www.spadre.com/surfcam.htm

http://www.southpadresurfcompany.com/ Might not be working

http://www.instacam.com/showcam.asp?size=S&id=STHPD

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022010
1000 AM CDT THU JUL 08 2010

REPORTS FROM A HURRICANE HUNTER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS...WSR-88D RADAR DATA FROM BROWNSVILLE...AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF THE
SYSTEM IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED. OUR BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT THE CENTER
IS JUST OFFSHORE OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST AT THIS TIME.
OBSERVATIONS FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT WINDS
APPROACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH ARE OCCURRING IN SQUALLS.
HOWEVER GIVEN THE LACK OF ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM AND THE SHORT
TIME REMAINING BEFORE LANDFALL...IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT THE CYCLONE
WILL BECOME A TROPICAL STORM. WEAKENING TO DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED
WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

[StormClouds63]

We have to wait a little longer for Bonnie. Maybe she's destined to be a "fish." Main issue w/TD2 will be flash flooding.

[cycloneye]

The search for Bonnie will resume at Talking Tropics forum.

[thetruesms]

Will Bonnie Jump out of the Cake?

At some time, yes, but not with this system

[HurrMark]

This is exactly why it is very difficult to get 20+ storms, even in years with great conditions for development. You are going to have several systems each year that start to get going right before landfall and simply run out of real estate. If the coastlines were pushed back 50 miles, we would easily see Colin by now.

I am pretty confident with my 16 storm prediction now...

[tolakram]

This is exactly why it is very difficult to get 20+ storms, even in years with great conditions for development. You are going to have several systems each year that start to get going right before landfall and simply run out of real estate. If the coastlines were pushed back 50 miles, we would easily see Colin by now.

I am pretty confident with my 16 storm prediction now...

So said he on July 8th, 2010.

[djones65]

There was a broad area of 35 knot winds east and northeast of the center about 60 miles offshore. The strongest winds in this system won't come onshore until the center passes... The winds north and west and certainly south of the center are extremely weak, but two or three hours after the center makes landfall I would expect the strongest winds to arrive... I think that's important to remember that the strongest portion of the storm won't be impacting the coast until after lunch in my humble opinion... I do believe that if the recon had found a more organized center they would have upgraded to Bonnie. The SFMR and flight level winds I believe would have been enough to warrant it if the system was a better organized cyclone. I wonder if they canceled the 1800 UTC fix mission? I imagine it would be.

[KWT]

Amazing to see the NHC have totally ignored several impressive reports that strongly suggest 35-40kts is the right call...though no doubting it is poorly organised...but I do feel its either a wave or a TS...can't see anything that would support it staying a TD.

[JonathanBelles]

In my opinion this is either an open wave or a tropical storm. It has winds of 40-45mph, but it does not have west winds that I have seen.

[KWT]

Actually thinking about it now the NHC may have discounted those TS surface estimate due to the location of the readings, certainly the 44kts was right at the coast which distorts the surface estimates.

[JonathanBelles]

Actually thinking about it now the NHC may have discounted those TS surface estimate due to the location of the readings, certainly the 44kts was right at the coast which distorts the surface estimates.

If the NHC didn't want winds along the coast, they wouldn't be flying there.

[clfenwi]

I wonder if they canceled the 1800 UTC fix mission? I imagine it would be.

Yeah, they cancelled the remaining missions earlier this morning

NOUS42 KNHC 081345
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0945 PM EDT THU 08 JULY 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 09/1100Z TO 10/1100Z JULY 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-038

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: TASKING FOR 08/1800Z, 08/2100, AND
09/0000Z CANCELED BY NHC AT 08/1230Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

[KWT]

Actually thinking about it now the NHC may have discounted those TS surface estimate due to the location of the readings, certainly the 44kts was right at the coast which distorts the surface estimates.

If the NHC didn't want winds along the coast, they wouldn't be flying there.

Its well known that the surface estimates are not to be trusted in shallow waters, they can still use the coasts as useful for FL winds but the surface estimates tend to be out. Note how the FL weren't even half of what the Surface estimates were when it went over the coastal waters.

[Comanche]

There will be NO CROW on my plate today!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[HurricaneBelle]

TCUAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022010
1015 AM CDT THU JUL 08 2010

...DEPRESSION MAKES LANDFALL OVER EXTREME SOUTH TEXAS COAST...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND WSR-88D RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER
OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO HAS MADE LANDFALL NEAR THE SOUTHERN END
OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND TEXAS.

SUMMARY OF 1015 AM CDT...1515 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.2N 97.2W
ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM NE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG

[djones65]

I personally believe the only reason Pasch and Berg kept it as a tropical depression is because tropical storm warnings were in place. If warnings had not been previously issued I bet they would have downgraded it to a tropical wave. Because I agree with Fact and KWT that the data does not support a well organized surface circulation and therefore would not meet the criteria for a tropical cyclone. If a organized surface circulation could be found then it would have been upgraded to a tropical storm. And that is what I interpreted Pasch's discussion when he said recon reports indicate winds to near tropical storm force in squalls, but prior to that he stated the system was extremely disorganized. So, Fact and KWT I agree completely this is either a "wave," or a tropical storm. But downgrading it to a wave and keeping warnings up wouldn't make sense, and upgrading to a tropical storm without having a more organized center of circulation wouldn't make sense either. So, all in all, Pasch and Berg made the right decision in my humble opinion to keep it status quo... Things can change so quickly in the tropics, that's what makes them so exciting! At the same time, Stewart and Cangialosi in my opinion made the right call last night and upgrading to a depression and issuing tropical storm warnings since it was going to be coming ashore so quickly and a definite circulation existed based on the NOAA reports last evening. I think the NHC did a great job! Now, I am frustrated a bit that we didn't get Bonnie out of this because my personal opinion is that this system probably reached that intensity based on the recon reports and the radar display from Brownsville, but the circulation was probably better defined a few thousand feet above the surface than it was at the surface. 02L will be another asterisk in my journal of the 2010 hurricane season...