ATL: IGOR - Ex Hurricane - Discussion

HurricaneStriker · #1102 Postby **HurricaneStriker** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 4:14 pm

I just noticed Igor looks an awful lot like Mitch:

Igor:

Mitch:

gixxer · #1103 Postby **gixxer** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 4:17 pm

plasticup wrote:I don't understand what people are so worked up about. Yes, it traveled west all day, but it wasn't supposed to turn until tonight. The synoptics are verifying and the storm is on track.

i have to disagree with it being on track, it should of had a northerly component all day and should be above 18.2 N now.
i expect a wnw turn but i have my doubts it will be as sharp as the track suggests. i almost hope for more west movement i think the only way bermuda is safe is if igor goes more west.

#1104 Postby **deltadog03** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 4:20 pm

Agreed!!! If you wanted to be the GFS hugging train, this was suppose to be moving WNW since early this morning. Again, this really shouldn't suprise many that we have a EURO vs American model war for the atleast the short term motion. Clearly the American models busted on the short term movement today.

canes101 · #1105 Postby **canes101** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 4:23 pm

HurricaneStriker · #1106 Postby **HurricaneStriker** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 4:23 pm

It looks like Igor wants to be Fabian II. The NHC track says that Igor will pass somewhat near (If not directly) Bermuda. Fabian also went near Bermuda and not near. Second, NHC predicts that Igor will be a minimal category 3 hurricane w/ winds of 115-120 mph, this was the intensity when Fabian made its pass in 03'. Last but not least, Igor nearly followed Fabian's track, and both had similar intensities. Fabian had peak winds of 145 mph and a minimal pressure of 939 mbar. Now, Igor has a pressure of 933 mbar and winds of 150 mph. :double:

hurricaneCW · #1107 Postby **hurricaneCW** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 4:24 pm

What about the interaction with Julia, she's certainly getting her act together. What happens if she gets closer to Igor than expected and is a lot bigger and stronger than expected.

Nj612 · #1108 Postby **Nj612** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 4:25 pm

Lol...as far as i know, from watching TWC they had Igor turning Sunday, and then they said oh Monday am...now they see it is staying west they want to say Monday pm...need to make up their mind. And NO i won't be surprised if is still going west in the morning...im just watching, not assuming anything, if it starts to turn so be it, and if it doesn't then they will be wrong again.

Aric Dunn · #1109 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 4:25 pm

This is a great loop ( although and hour old now) old NHC position and track and new model forecast. Once again the models have it moving wnw right now so IGOR will be south of all the models again and likely the NHC track at 11pm ( unless it decides to start turning ). You can also see how easy it is for a eye with all the shadows can be tricky which gives it the appearance of different motions ( wobbles) you almost have to block out the entire rest of the hurricane and track only the clear void in the eye...

canes101 · #1110 Postby **canes101** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 4:28 pm

Nj612 wrote:Lol...as far as i know, from watching TWC they had Igor turning Sunday, and then they said oh Monday am...now they see it is staying west they want to say Monday pm...need to make up their mind. And NO i won't be surprised if is still going west in the morning...im just watching, not assuming anything, if it starts to turn so be it, and if it doesn't then they will be wrong again.

You seriously want them to be able to pinpoint the EXACT time a system is going to turn etc..?

#1111 Postby **fci** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 4:28 pm

plasticup wrote:I don't understand what people are so worked up about. Yes, it traveled west all day, but it wasn't supposed to turn until tonight. The synoptics are verifying and the storm is on track.

People are worked up because this is a 150 MPH Hurricane and until they see the change in direction they are deservedly worked up.

FLpanhandle91 · #1112 Postby **FLpanhandle91** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 4:29 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:This is a great loop ( although and hour old now) old NHC position and track and new model forecast. Once again the models have it moving wnw right now so IGOR will be south of all the models again and likely the NHC track at 11pm ( unless it decides to start turning ). You can also see how easy it is for a eye with all the shadows can be tricky which gives it the appearance of different motions ( wobbles) you almost have to block out the entire rest of the hurricane and track only the clear void in the eye...

It seems to me (ruling out shadows) that the middle of the eye has remained south and on a more westward track than the white line imposed on the map.

HurricaneStriker · #1113 Postby **HurricaneStriker** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 4:31 pm

Keep watch on http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/storm.php?&basin=atlantic&sname=11L&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000000&loop=0

Hurricane Igor is going to pass real close to buoy 4195 and 4135. So far Buoy 4135 picking up a lowest pressure of 998 mbar...

#1114 Postby **chrisjslucia** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 4:34 pm

Aric has found Pacman!!

Nj612 · #1115 Postby **Nj612** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 4:36 pm

canes101 wrote:
Nj612 wrote:Lol...as far as i know, from watching TWC they had Igor turning Sunday, and then they said oh Monday am...now they see it is staying west they want to say Monday pm...need to make up their mind. And NO i won't be surprised if is still going west in the morning...im just watching, not assuming anything, if it starts to turn so be it, and if it doesn't then they will be wrong again.

You seriously want them to be able to pinpoint the EXACT time a system is going to turn etc..?

NO....im not saying that, its just so far their so called "track" has been off, they jumped on this thing from day one and said turn to the northwest...and to my knowledge as of right now it still has yet to even turn west-northwest...but yet their track is so sharp to the north..its confusing.

TheBurn · #1116 Postby **TheBurn** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 4:36 pm

HurricaneStriker · #1117 Postby **HurricaneStriker** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 4:42 pm

I'm thinking that dry air is not letting Igor go up to Category 5. According to CIMSS, there's this large pack of dry air stuffed right in the eyewall.

#1118 Postby **abajan** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 4:48 pm

plasticup wrote:I don't understand what people are so worked up about. Yes, it traveled west all day, but it wasn't supposed to turn until tonight. The synoptics are verifying and the storm is on track.

Yep. There has been no marked change in the synoptic setup to suggest that the turn will not occur. As a matter of fact, looking at the latest loops, it seems that turn may have already begun but I will need to see more frames to confirm that it’s not just a wobble.

Presently, assuming the official 5 pm track verifies, the closest Igor’s eye will get to any of the islands in the archipelago is 432.6 miles. That’s pretty far, even for a large system like Igor. Rough and dangerous surf should be our main focus. Of course, this is not to say that the Leewards shouldn’t monitor the situation at all. That would be foolhardy. After all, this is weather we are discussing — the quintessential inexact science.

At this juncture, the only place that really needs to be concerned is Bermuda. From the looks of things, it’s gonna be a rough Saturday night there!

The preceding post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

FLpanhandle91 · #1119 Postby **FLpanhandle91** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 5:00 pm

I believe this is a definite turn to the west north west.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... 000&loop=0

Solaris · #1120 Postby **Solaris** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 5:05 pm

Given the current motion, I expect Igor will move more closely near the LBAR, UKMO and CMC projected path than the GFS one.

ATL: IGOR - Ex Hurricane - Discussion

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