ATL: MATTHEW - Ex-Tropical Storm - Discussion

[TheShrimper]

Good catch tailgaiter. Last frame on visible looks like it is 30 miles north of that recording station.

[aerology]

Why the heck is recon flying out to Matthew if its over land?

This year they are doing extended research into the how and why's of hurricane production so are gathering extra data than just normal recon. Have seen some extra flights than normal and this is just another one, looking at / for new perspectives.

[artist]

I did; referred to it lest page.

Matthew is kaput....big time going to be done....no worries.

MY PERSONAL OPINION AND DOES NOT REFLECT ANY OFFICIAL FORECAST FROM THE NHC.

not for those in CA and Mexico. There are others that have to deal with this than just the threat to the US.

[Air Force Met]

This is the observation people need to look at right now IMO. The center of Matthew is sitting off to the NNE of this town (which is on the NE coast of Honduras). The shear is displacing most of the convection towards the SW which gives the appearance of Matthew being far inland. If a WNW motion from this point continues there is a good chance it gets back over water. Will be interesting to see unfold.

I think there is more than likely a problem with the ob...than that Matthew is sitting NNE of this town.

First...the 18Z position was 14.6 / 83.0. A wind from 300 would mean the center would need to be NE of this town...which means that all of the sudden...after moving at a clip of 275 all day...its now all of the sudden hooked it to the right towards 340.

Second...the hi-res vis imagery does not match up with a center being in that location. The low level cu field is very strong out of the ESE near 15/83. This would not be the case if the center was near 15.5/83.5 Also...the low level cu field everywhere else is indicative of a low over land...not at 15.5/83.5

Third...the latest obs shows the wind from 090 at 22kts. This means a center SOUTH of the town. So...a wind from NORTH...then WNW...then EAST.

That tells me that WNW is bogus...but even given no current east wind...all the other clues don't add up to the center being there.

Here is some advice: Always evaluate your data for possible errors...especially when it comes from 3rd world countries. I learned this lesson 20 years ago when plotting and analyzing surface charts in Colorado. There was always this one station that read 5 mb higher than everywhere else. The first couple of times...I analyzed a bubble high over the area (it was data sparse back then)...until a seasoned forecaster pointed out the trend...and told me to disregard the data.

If the data doesn't make sense...throw it out. There was a reason the NHC put the center over land.

[tailgater]

Good catch tailgaiter. Last frame on visible looks like it is 30 miles north of that recording station.

Thanks Shrimper I was begining to think I was talking to myself. Wish they had a good radar down there.

[Sanibel]

Good thing that didn't turn north because the IR convection burst was going for the downs there with Matty. Best yet in the Caribbean in 2010.

[wxman57]

Here's an updated plot with satellite overlay. That ob went from WNW at 25 kts to due east at 20 kts. Clearly the center is south of the station near the crosshairs on the image below. There's no center offshore north of Honduras. Just a goofy observation around 20Z.

[Air Force Met]

One more thing about the OB at Puerto Lempira....and this pretty much promises it is a bad ob: Look at the pressure.

If the storm was really that close...and the ob was accurate...would the pressure be 1009 mb? The pressure down at Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua (MNPC) is 1003. So...how is the pressure lower at a station that is further away from the storm?

Bad ob.

[tailgater]

AF Met I agree about the OBs but I'm seeing something totally different in the cu field going back a few hours the south to north motion just east of the coast of Nig. On the hi-res site going back 25 frames.

[Air Force Met]

Good catch tailgaiter. Last frame on visible looks like it is 30 miles north of that recording station.

Thanks Shrimper I was begining to think I was talking to myself. Wish they had a good radar down there.

Please see the posts I made...and the one WXMAN57 just made. That is a bad ob. The center is not NE of that station. The center is over land where the NHC placed it. The ob is an error. The winds are now out of the east...and the satellite shows it is clearly over land and still booking it to the west.

Radar would show you the center is over land

[Air Force Met]

AF Met I agree about the OBs but I'm seeing something totally different in the cu field going back a few hours the south to north motion just east of the coast of Nig. On the hi-res site going back 25 frames.

We are probably looking at two different areas...but the bottom line is this: The center isn't anywhere near the coast. Its inland...probably near 14.9/84.4. That would create a strong southerly wind along the east coast of Nic.

[Air Force Met]

One more thing about the OB at Puerto Lempira....and this pretty much promises it is a bad ob: Look at the pressure.

If the storm was really that close...and the ob was accurate...would the pressure be 1009 mb? The pressure down at Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua (MNPC) is 1003. So...how is the pressure lower at a station that is further away from the storm?

Bad ob.

Wind now 15040KT...

[Normandy]

Interesting AFM, thanks for your input. Even still this afternoon the center looked to be a bit elongated and stretched off the coast for a while. Probably satellite hallucinations I guess.

[canes101]

Ok everyone Im sorry if I am asking a redundant question here, but I have been away from my computer.. So by looking at the new track map they have it entering CA and then Dying out for good? No more re curving back into Gulf or NE carib? Thank you in advance


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[Vortmax1]

Yep...dissipated:


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/2100Z 14.7N 83.7W 40 KT
12HR VT 25/0600Z 15.2N 85.6W 35 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 25/1800Z 15.8N 88.0W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 26/0600Z 16.5N 90.0W 25 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 26/1800Z 17.0N 91.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 27/1800Z 17.0N 91.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

[canes101]

Thank you Vortmax. Do you know if any of the models pick it back up for potential regen?

[TheDreamTraveler]

Matthew's wind speed increased 5 mph? Surprising considering it's been over land for a while now.

[Ptarmigan]

Matthew is going to be a problem for Central America. Hopefully, it will not be bad for them.

[Vortmax1]

Thank you Vortmax. Do you know if any of the models pick it back up for potential regen?

Please read the NHC discussion at 5 PM:


FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY DEPICTING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MOST RECENT RUNS INDICATE THAT ANY
DEVELOPMENT THERE WOULD LIKELY NOT HAVE CONTINUITY WITH MATTHEW...
BUT RATHER REPRESENT THE FORMATION A NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE.

[canes101]

Actually looks like he may already be dying out huh?


CURRENT VIEW:

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3 FRAMES PRIOR:

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