WPAC: MEGI (1013/15W) - Tropical Depression

[Typhoon10]

As HKO's website only predicts 72hrs in advance, very few people know about Megi. But some of us are very curious to which track it will take and strength. HKO predicts it will go back to Super Typhoon status which is worrying.

I wouldnt be suprised if HKO raises their T1 warning signal today, T3 tomorrow and T8 Thursday.
Am going to stock up on supplies tomorrow and buy some tape for the windows.

As this is my 1st Typhoon, any suggestions as I live in a 40 year old building on 18th floor in one of the most populated districts in HK on HK Island side facing north?

[StormingB81]

what is that link to the HKO website again typhoon10?

[Typhoon10]

what is that link to the HKO website again typhoon10?

http://www.hko.gov.hk/contente.htm is the home page

http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/currwx/tc_pos.htm is the track url

[RobWESTPACWX]

I think the biggest concern though is that SE china is already suffering terribly due to floods this year, another storm and a strong one at that is just hurtful.

[Typhoon10]

I think the biggest concern though is that SE china is already suffering terribly due to floods this year, another storm and a strong one at that is just hurtful.

Yeah, except right now we have a dry monsoon bringing dry, cool air to HK!

[Pleasing05]

As this is my 1st Typhoon, any suggestions as I live in a 40 year old building on 18th floor in one of the most populated districts in HK on HK Island side facing north?

just stay tuned to the news and if your area is under threat 24 hours before the predicted hit, cover all your electronics in plastic and position it in the room with the least windows, cover the windows with wood (2x2, not plywood, as to protect from debris coming in from windows), lock your home, go to the nearest evacuation center if possible. If the building is made in bricks or at least a very very tough foundation, if wont go down, however there is a possibility of debris and very high wind in case HK gets a direct hit.

Megi does appear to have stalled. Hopefully it'll start upwelling itself.

its been stationary for 12 hours now, the storm still fails to maintain its "pseudo-perfect" form from before it has entered the Isabela area, though the real scary thought is the prediction, it will move WNW 7kph according to PAGASA in the next 12 hours, considering that its at 175kph max sustained and 210kph gustiness, it could get stronger..

May I ask how long does it take for a storm to upwell itself?

[RobWESTPACWX]

dry cool air, warm moist air? this sounds like a recipe for sever thunderstorms not a typhoon.

[Typhoon10]

dry cool air, warm moist air? this sounds like a recipe for sever thunderstorms not a typhoon.

Cool dry air

[StormingB81]

http://edition.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/asiap ... cnn_latest

Death Toll climbs to 11

[Typhoon10]

Just looked at the ECMWF forecast and has as almost direct hit on HK on Saturday as Cat 4 or 5! Scary!

[supercane]

WTPQ50 RJTD 190600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1013 MEGI (1013)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190600UTC 16.7N 118.5E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 200NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 200600UTC 17.6N 116.8E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
48HF 210600UTC 18.7N 116.5E 110NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
72HF 220600UTC 20.6N 116.5E 220NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
96HF 230600UTC 22.5N 116.6E 280NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
120HF 240600UTC 25.8N 116.7E 375NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT =



WTPQ20 BABJ 190600
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
SuperTY MEGI 1013 (1013) INITIAL TIME 190600 UTC
00HR 16.6N 118.4E 940HPA 52M/S
30KTS 300KM
50KTS 100KM
P12HR W 10KM/H
P+24HR 17.0N 116.4E 940HPA 52M/S
P+48HR 18.4N 114.6E 930HPA 55M/S
P+72HR 20.2N 113.1E 930HPA 55M/S
P+96HR 21.2N 111.7E 945HPA 50M/S
P+120HR 22.7N 109.3E 990HPA 23M/S=



WTKO20 RKSL 190600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 24
NAME TY 1013 MEGI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 190600UTC 16.7N 118.5E
MOVEMENT WNW 3KT
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 200600UTC 17.6N 115.7E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 93KT
48HR
POSITION 210600UTC 19.1N 115.1E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 925HPA 99KT
72HR
POSITION 220600UTC 20.5N 114.9E WITHIN 215NM
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 93KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.



932
TCNA21 RJTD 190600
CCAA 19060 47644 MEGI(1013) 17167 11185 13404 255// 93105=

TPPN11 PGTW 190636
A. TYPHOON 15W (MEGI)
B. 19/0530Z
C. 16.6N
D. 118.5E
E. ONE/MTSAT
F. T5.5/5.5/W2.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 03A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. IRRG EYE.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
DARLOW

[supercane]

00Z models:
GFS=red, CMC=pink, NOGAPS=olive, UKMET=brown


ECMWF at 96hr:


Do have to give GFS credit for catching this stall. Agree with you Chacor that this storm may start upwelling cooler waters if it doesn't move more definitively soon.

[Typhoon10]

Supercane, can you elaborate on "Do have to give GFS credit for catching this stall. Agree with you Chacor that this storm may start upwelling cooler waters if it doesn't move more definitively soon." for us amateurs please?

[Chacor]

WTPN31 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 16.5N 118.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, SYNOPTIC DATA AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5N 118.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 17.1N 117.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 17.8N 116.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 18.5N 115.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 19.3N 115.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 20.9N 114.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 22.7N 114.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 23.9N 112.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 16.7N 118.1E.
TYPHOON (TY) 15W (MEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM SOUTHEAST OF
HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
MAINTAINED AN EYE THAT HAS BECOME MORE RAGGED AND ENLARGED. THE SAME
ANIMATION DEPICTS EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT POSITION AND
INTENSITY ARE BASED ON DVORAK EYE FIXES FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES
WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TY
15W IS APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES TO THE SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS WITH A
MESOCALE ANTICYCLONE DIRECTLY OVER THE SYSTEM. IT IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR)TO THE NORTHEAST. TYPHOON MEGI HAS BEGUN TO DRIFT MORE
POLEWARD IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT IS DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO EAST CENTRAL CHINA. IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD AND MAKE LANDFALL IN THE VICINITY OF HONG
KONG NEAR TAU 96, THEN DEFLECT WESTWARD AS AN EXTENSION OF THE STR
TO THE NORTH BUILDS. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE ARE IN POOR
AGREEMENT WITH GFDN AND EGRR FAVORING A DRASTIC POLEWARD TUG TOWARDS
TAIWAN AND ECMWF FAVORING A MORE WESTWARD TRAJECTORY. THIS FORECAST
IS TO THE LEFT OF CONSENSUS WITH BIAS TOWARDS ECMWF. THIS SOLUTION
STAYS WITH CURRENT FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FAVORING A LESS INTENSE
POLEWARD MOTION ALTHOUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191500Z, 192100Z,
200300Z AND 200900Z.//

[Pleasing05]

err am I reading the satellite image right when I say that it looks like the typhoon is weakening? Red spots seem to have disappeared.

[Chacor]

I wouldn't say the "typhoon is weakening", but yes, cloud tops are warming. It's a sign of weakening but may be temporary. We'll have to watch a bit longer before we can make a definitive call, imo. Might be starting to upwell itself—where it draws up cooler waters from under the ocean's surface while it stays almost stationary. If that is true, this is a good thing.

[AussieMark]

waters are definately cooler than east of Phillipines

[GCANE]

Core temperature-profile has snapped nicely back in shape.

[GCANE]

Eye-wall convection beginning to deepen.

[oaba09]

For a typhoon this powerful, I'm actually thankful that the casualties aren't as high as people were expecting...The gov't finally did what they needed to do....

However, the infrastructure and agricultural damage is a different story...Some people in isabela are saying that they never thought that a typhoon could be this powerful...One even said in an interview that he thought these things only happen in movies...