ATL : INVEST 92L - DISCUSSION

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 182331
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI JUN 18 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS IS PRODUCING AN AREA
OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS...WHICH COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...AND HAITI AS THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON
THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE REFER TO PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[tolakram]

I think it's safe to say next few weeks might start to get pretty busy, even if 92L dissipates.

[Gustywind]

Looks like 92L is moving very very slowly even a bit stationnary? Convection is trying to make a short comeback just between Guadeloupe and Antigua tonight, a nice cluster seems to repop nicely near north of Guadeloupe. Let's be vigilant as usual instead of the strong shear winds inhibiting any quick developpement of 92L in vicinity of the EC islands .

[cycloneye]

00 UTC Best Track

They are still tracking it and that is why the invest has not been deactivated.

AL, 92, 2010061900, , BEST, 0, 165N, 646W, 25, 1012, WV

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[Gustywind]

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
AXNT20 KNHC 182342
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI JUN 18 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 23N62W 18N64W 15N64W 12N65W MOVING W
NEAR 15 KT. A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THE
WAVE BETWEEN 55W-65W EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A SHARP SE-NE WIND SHIFT
ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS E
OF THE WAVE AXIS IMPACTING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 16N-19N
BETWEEN 58W-64W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
IMPACTING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS 12N-16N BETWEEN 58W-62W. THIS
CONVECTION HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS.

[gatorcane]

I don't expect much change for at least another 72 hours. It should pass the shear area by Tuesday. At that time, it may be near western Cuba. Depending upon what's left of the wave, it could regenerate in the south-central Gulf next Tue-Wed. I'm estimating perhaps a 20% chance of development then. Nothing to do but just sit back and wait for 72 hours. Convection will come and go during that time. Doesn't mean anything.

I agree. So far no surprises with 92L. In my opinion it really hasn't had a chance to become a named storm since moving off of Africa and that is the forecast I have stuck with since I started tracking this wave. It is certainly a vigorous wave but the upper-level conditions are killing it. No matter how good it looks at times, it will not be able to fight off the high shear, as long as it is around. Sure it may have some kind of chance farther down the road in the NW Carib/Yucatan/BOC area, but plenty of time to watch and see what unfolds there. Not worried at all about 92L.

[bahamaswx]

Here comes the nighttime burst.

[wxman57]

That shear zone isn't stationary, it's forecast to gradually shift northward and weaken with time. It'll be gone in another 7-10 days, at least if the GFS is correct.

Does that mean in 7-10 days we should see some more tropical activity? I heard the MJO will also come into play by then, correct?

Yes and could be...

[Weatherfreak000]

Impressive bursting tonight again as 92L is developing more convection over the center, shear is on the decrease as well and i'm not entirely so sure it's going to burn off as it did in the past.

Tonight as always with this storm is a night to watch. Hard to believe the tenacity of the circulation.

[Brent]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT JUN 19 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...WHICH COULD CAUSE FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI AS THE
WAVE MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE
REFER TO PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[Weatherfreak000]

The convective bursting is increasing even more with recent sat pictures. Appears to be building to the west again as well.

[Nimbus]

The convection burst is further southwest which probably indicates the wave is following the shallow BAM. That might mean less interaction with the big islands. Good news over the short term unless they need the rain. I'm not ready to say 92L is going to just roll into the EPAC yet though.

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all. As I type this post,it's pouring with thunder.There have been many flash flood warnings this morning.More on the flood warnings and observations from the different Islands on the Caribbean thread at USA & Caribbean forum.

[MortisFL]

Luis, getting any gusty winds?

[cycloneye]

Luis, getting any gusty winds?

Brief gusts (Between 25-30 mph) in the heaviest thunderstorms.

[xironman]

Lots of dry air being pulled into the wave from the southwest



Nice explanation from Masters yesterday on how that contributes to the outflow boundries
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1510

Water vapor satellite loops show that there is a large amount of dry air in the storm's environment, and this dry air is getting sucked into 92L's thunderstorms, where the dry air is sinking to the surface and creating surface "arc clouds"--arc-shaped clouds that spread out away from 92L's thunderstorms.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUN 19 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...WHICH COULD CAUSE FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI AS THE
WAVE MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE REFER TO
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

06 UTC Best Track

They resumed updates.

AL, 92, 2010061906, , BEST, 0, 169N, 654W, 25, 1012, WV

[wzrgirl1]

Why does the invest keep coming off and going back on? This is the most I have ever seen of an invest doing that. I think it's the third time it has gone off and on again. It's playing with my mind. LOL

[Fego]

At 8:45 am, the convection still heading sw.


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