ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO - DISCUSSION

[wxman57]

The main mission of the NHC is public safety. Yeah, it was questionably a TD last night. Cloud tops had been warming steadily for hours before advisory 1. But because there was at least a chance it would intensify overnight, the NHC needed to do something while people on the coast were still awake just in case. We saw how quickly a 45 mph TS can reach nearly Cat 2 strength in just 2-3 hours with Humberto in 2007. In this case, it continued to weaken and is no wind threat. No harm done. At least we didn't waste a good name on this system. Just 16 more to go for my 17/10/5...

[KWT]

Well we have our first US landfall this year, even if it is only a poorly organised depression, hopefully thats the last one this season!

The rain really is going to be the big issue with this one though quite clearly, expecting some bad flooding in some parts of Texas.

[Sanibel]

Good example of how conditions can affect different systems in the same place.

[tailgater]

Already on shore.

Current Weather Conditions:
BROWNSVILLE/SOUTH PADRE IS, TX, United States
(KBRO) 25-54N 97-25W 5M

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Conditions at Jul 08, 2010 - 10:53 AM EDTJul 08, 2010 - 09:53 AM CDTJul 08, 2010 - 08:53 AM MDTJul 08, 2010 - 07:53 AM PDTJul 08, 2010 - 06:53 AM ADTJul 08, 2010 - 05:53 AM HDT
2010.07.08 1453 UTC
Wind from the WNW (300 degrees) at 6 MPH (5 KT)
Visibility 6 mile(s)
Sky conditions overcast
Weather Rain
Mist
Precipitation last hour 0.03 inches
Temperature 80.1 F (26.7 C)
Dew Point 78.1 F (25.6 C)
Relative Humidity 93%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.78 in. Hg (1008 hPa)
Pressure tendency 0.01 inches (0.4 hPa) higher than three hours ago
ob KBRO 081453Z 30005KT 6SM RA BR SCT006 BKN014 OVC031 27/26 A2978 RMK AO2 RAB24 SLP082 P0003 60003 T02670256 51004

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[KWT]

Looks like a fairly big band of rain about to head close to Corpus now, but the worst of the rains are just south of the center it seems with the convection really taking its time to move and some rather heavy stuff just south fo the MX/TX border.

[HouTXmetro]

Looks like a fairly big band of rain about to head close to Corpus now, but the worst of the rains are just south of the center it seems with the convection really taking its time to move and some rather heavy stuff just south fo the MX/TX border.

Bayou's in Houston are almost full...we can't take too much more rain from TD2 as street flooding has already occured in parts of the city. People's homes are next if this doesn't let up.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022010
1015 AM CDT THU JUL 08 2010

...DEPRESSION MAKES LANDFALL OVER EXTREME SOUTH TEXAS COAST...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND WSR-88D RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER
OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO HAS MADE LANDFALL NEAR THE SOUTHERN END
OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND TEXAS.

[KWT]

Looks like a fairly big band of rain about to head close to Corpus now, but the worst of the rains are just south of the center it seems with the convection really taking its time to move and some rather heavy stuff just south fo the MX/TX border.

Bayou's in Houston are almost full...we can't take too much more rain from TD2 as street flooding has already occured in parts of the city. People's homes are next if this doesn't let up.

Yeah starting to see more and more flash flood warnings are coming through form the region now...hopefully the rain does ease off for the reasons you state...

[HurrMark]

This is exactly why it is very difficult to get 20+ storms, even in years with great conditions for development. You are going to have several systems each year that start to get going right before landfall and simply run out of real estate. If the coastlines were pushed back 50 miles, we would easily see Colin by now.

I am pretty confident with my 16 storm prediction now...

So said he on July 8th, 2010.

Well, yeah, it's early...but I think that the western Gulf/Caribbean will be a hotspot this year...and that could actually hold down the number of developing storms because of the land barriers. We will probably have a few depressions that simply can't make it to TS strength due to the lack of real estate, and that should hold down the overall numbers.

[KWT]

Whilst this is true remember that both Alex and TD2 came from tropical waves that were rather far south, the waves down the line will be more to the north and even if they take the same sort of track it'll lead to storms further north.

[ConvergenceZone]

I don't see any other hot areas primed for development right now, nothing even close, so it looks like we might finally get a lull in July. We will need it, because it will probably be a busy August.

[KWT]

Heavy rain has just moved through the Brownsville region, I'd imagine flash flooding could be an issue given how much rain fell during Alex and now they have the heaviest stuff just passing them.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Guys, there is still a TD causing flooding in an already rain-sick area.

[HURAKAN]

Can't wait for August, September and October

[KWT]

Yep lots of flash flooding is possible from this and indeed I think there probably must be some bad flooding occuring around the Rio Grande region.

Also worth noting there was a tornado warning out close to Brownsville just a short while ago.

[HURAKAN]

Oops!!!

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[KWT]

A pretty funny mistake, but probably shows how tempted the NHC were to pull the trigger if such a mistake like that was made, surely?

Hurakan, the Vis.imagery you have put up there shows the convective burst near the TX/MX border, in an area that really doesn't need the rainfall.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I'll be glad when this event is over. Unfortunately, doesnt look like anytime soon

Will this system hang around and drench Houston through the weekend?

[RachelAnna]

I'll be glad when this event is over. Unfortunately, doesnt look like anytime soon

Will this system hang around and drench Houston through the weekend?

Forecast looks to have it out by Friday evening/Saturday morning best I can tell.