ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

[Blown Away]

TAFB buying the WSW movement into the Caribbean.

[ROCK]

I think I see what Vortex is seeing. The convection burst that the LLC rolled under died out, so where did the LLC go? Did it relocate to the new burst to the SE?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/flash-vis.html

I would agree with your assumption...looks that way to me...the LLC is hopping around IMO bouncing between convection bursts...just need one to stick...

[fasterdisaster]

Gaston looks the best he has since as a tropical storm!

[Fego]

At 2200 UTC...


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[SootyTern]

I agree with Aric I think Gaston is going to get it together in the next half day.If moisture is his problem now there is plenty of it where he is going. ULL seems to be on the move to the west, too.

[fasterdisaster]

Gaston already seems to be getting his act together.

[Dean4Storms]

I don't know guys, the circulation looks to be weakening as the day went along and there just isn't any moisture feeding into this system. I think tonight is the key, if it cannot get convection sustained and re-organize with a stronger circulation it could be pretty much history.

[fasterdisaster]

I don't know guys, the circulation looks to be weakening as the day went along and there just isn't any moisture feeding into this system. I think tonight is the key, if it cannot get convection sustained and re-organize with a stronger circulation it could be pretty much history.

The circulation looked to be getting worse until about 3 hours ago, since when there has been considerable improvement IMO.

[Dean4Storms]

I don't know guys, the circulation looks to be weakening as the day went along and there just isn't any moisture feeding into this system. I think tonight is the key, if it cannot get convection sustained and re-organize with a stronger circulation it could be pretty much history.

The circulation looked to be getting worse until about 3 hours ago, since when there has been considerable improvement IMO.

All I see is pretty much one lone thunderstorm, there is really no convection in banding to speak of and the last few hours before sunset you could see a outflow race eastward from near the center. Looks more and more like a Wave than the reverse too me!

[Dean4Storms]

Like I said though, tonight is going to be key if the global models are going to be wrong in not intensifying it then it will need to turn around tonight.

[Shuriken]

I think I see what Vortex is seeing. The convection burst that the LLC rolled under died out, so where did the LLC go? Did it relocate to the new burst to the SE?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/flash-vis.html

My impression is the following: Low-level flow is running 280 degrees, while convection, once-formed and sufficiently tall to penetrate all steering layers, heads 260.

So, when convection dies, the LLC moves WNW. When convection redevelops (on the higher-convergence region immediately south or southwest of the LLC), the existing center distorts as it is sucked back under the convection. This on-again/off-again pulsing is probably what is confounding the models, as they would like to move a developed system on a W or WSW heading, but a weaker or exposed system heads WNW.

[jinftl]

What does the environment downstream look like...been out of the loop for a few days so forgive my ignorance if this has already been addressed....does this hold potential to hold-off developing until very close to land?

[Aric Dunn]

the circulation is still intact...

[Florida1118]

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF
GASTON LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS HAS
CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. DATA FROM THE NATIONAL
SCIENCE FOUNDATION G-V AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT VERY DRY AIR IS
PRESENT NEAR THE LOW PRESSURE AREA...WHICH MAY BE INHIBITING
FURTHER ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT...AND THE LOW SHOULD BE
MOVING INTO AN AREA WITH HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES IN A DAY OR SO.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

Lowered again....

[Florida1118]

The NHC seems a little less confident of this making the cut...

[Aric Dunn]

as was anticipated.. more waiting.. convection is doing better though ..

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 052333
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN SEP 5 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF
GASTON LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS HAS
CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. DATA FROM THE NATIONAL
SCIENCE FOUNDATION G-V AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT VERY DRY AIR IS
PRESENT NEAR THE LOW PRESSURE AREA...WHICH MAY BE INHIBITING
FURTHER ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT...AND THE LOW SHOULD BE
MOVING INTO AN AREA WITH HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES IN A DAY OR SO.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[BigA]

That was a really detailed, really helpful TWO. Kudos to forecaster Blake.

[supercane]

Circulation not as well defined as yesterday on microwave: