ATL: MATTHEW - Models

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fci
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#1121 Postby fci » Thu Sep 23, 2010 11:26 pm

Thank you guys!
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#1122 Postby Vortex » Thu Sep 23, 2010 11:26 pm

H162..look out western cuba...continues to deepen...



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal162.gif
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Re: Re:

#1123 Postby paintplaye » Thu Sep 23, 2010 11:27 pm

MWatkins wrote:
Vortex wrote:H114 over NW carribean and strengthening....


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_114l.gif


I think...THINK...that the developing system is an 850 vort max swung around from the Pacific by Matthew.

However, I think the GFS is way too weak with Matthew before landfall in 2 days. This is a super complex deal, but something is going to present a problem for the US next week.

MW


Exactly. The remaining "vort" of Matthew goes into the BOC before dissipating while something crosses the Pacific into the Atlantic:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/index_85v_lu_loop.shtml
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#1124 Postby Vortex » Thu Sep 23, 2010 11:27 pm

H168..stronger..over isle of youth...slowly N


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal168.gif
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Re:

#1125 Postby SouthDadeFish » Thu Sep 23, 2010 11:29 pm

Vortex wrote:H156...starting to crank...lifting N over NW carribean f


I don't know what would take it to so long to finally start cranking. Conditions appear to be quite favorable in the NW Carib the entire time.
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#1126 Postby Vortex » Thu Sep 23, 2010 11:29 pm

this has south or central florida written all over it...
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#1127 Postby ROCK » Thu Sep 23, 2010 11:29 pm

Image
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Re:

#1128 Postby paintplaye » Thu Sep 23, 2010 11:30 pm

Vortex wrote:this has south or central florida written all over it...



I don't know ridge is building in from the east. Will be close but then again this is a whole other system we are looking at now so anything can happen.
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#1129 Postby Vortex » Thu Sep 23, 2010 11:31 pm

H174...continues to deepen..beginning to move over western cuba...all this in just a week from now..



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal174.gif
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#1130 Postby Vortex » Thu Sep 23, 2010 11:32 pm

H180..moving off moving off NW cuba...sw of key west...look out west or sw florida...



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal180.gif
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#1131 Postby ROCK » Thu Sep 23, 2010 11:33 pm

Image
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#1132 Postby Vortex » Thu Sep 23, 2010 11:34 pm

H192...and stronger...Northbound...panhandle maybe?



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal192.gif
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#1133 Postby South Texas Storms » Thu Sep 23, 2010 11:35 pm

not looking good for florida again on this run. hope this doesnt verify...
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#1134 Postby Vortex » Thu Sep 23, 2010 11:36 pm

H204...turning nne/NE.......MUCH STRONGER...


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal204.gif
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Re:

#1135 Postby paintplaye » Thu Sep 23, 2010 11:36 pm

Vortex wrote:H192...and stronger...Northbound...panhandle maybe?



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal192.gif



One thing to also note is a lack of trofs after our big one this weekend. Could really push it farther west than predicted (if it even forms).
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#1136 Postby Vortex » Thu Sep 23, 2010 11:37 pm

h216..POWERFUL HURRICANE....crosses SFL...



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal216.gif
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Re:

#1137 Postby Florida1118 » Thu Sep 23, 2010 11:37 pm

Vortex wrote:H204...turning nne/NE.......MUCH STRONGER...


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal204.gif

Good golly. I thought it would be a prettier run...bad scenario this run.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#1138 Postby South Texas Storms » Thu Sep 23, 2010 11:38 pm

ugly ugly ugly. good thing its still a week away. lots can still change!
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#1139 Postby Vortex » Thu Sep 23, 2010 11:38 pm

H228 pulling away from fl and headed NE....

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal228.gif
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#1140 Postby Ntxw » Thu Sep 23, 2010 11:38 pm

Very interesting...
Last edited by Ntxw on Thu Sep 23, 2010 11:40 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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