ATL : INVEST 92L - DISCUSSION

[cycloneye]

12 UTC Best Track

Continues to moves mainly west.

AL, 92, 2010061912, , BEST, 0, 171N, 670W, 25, 1012, WV

The history of this invest continues to grow.See from the start until now.

History of 2010 Invest 92L

[wxman57]

The best way to follow its movement (yes, it's moving at a good clip) is with the TPW imagery from CIMSS:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... /main.html

It's moving a good 15 kts or so to the west. The reason it appears to not move much is because you're following the movement of convection vs. the wave axis itself. Sometimes the convection remains stationary over "hot spots" while the wave axis is moving off to the west. You can clearly see the mid-level rotation on the TPW loop.

Latest GFS takes it over the DR and Cuba, forming a low north of western Cuba Wednesday late night then NW to the mid LA coast on Saturday evening. That would be very bad as far as oil cleanup operations, as if it was to develop, then the cleanup site would have to be evacuated on Wednesday and Thursday. And even a TS could damage/destroy all the containment booms and sand barricades.

Canadian forms the low north of western Cuba Thursday afternoon and moves it to the mid TX coast on Saturday. Euro doesn't see it yet.

I still think it has a 20% shot of development in the Gulf, possibly higher. Wind shear won't be too bad, and the projected upper low in the SW Gulf could help to enhance outflow. But don't look for anything significant to happen until around Wednesday at the earliest.

[SFLcane]

Thanks wxman57... The GGEM and ECM both show development around 9-10 timeframe in the gulf.

[srainhoutx]

Thanks for the update wxman57. It was interesting to see the chatter from NWS offices around the GOM this morning. Certainly has attention from Corpus to Key West.

[Sanibel]

The convective tag means it still has energy but since it will have to go across Cuba to get north of Cuba I doubt it will develop.

[Frank2]

Thanks, wxman57 (I guess) - the wave axis (at least as far as convection) is easily defined on IR and is nothing more at this time (I certainly wouldn't call it a "strong tropical wave", per the TWO)...

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh.html

At this point, nothing to get into a (cyclonic) spin over - it's just a wave, in fact, yesterday at this time it seemed the weak mid-level circulation (apparently there was one since early in the week) seemed to separate and move northeastward, and if my observation of that is correct, then any development beyond it's present state would be unlikely - we'll see...

Frank

[Ivanhater]

Last nights gfs had it hitting around Pensacola and I havnt looked at the 06gfs but if it's Louisiana that it not good for points east with this oil spill. Sad seeing the oil come ashore on our pristine white beaches recently. We don't need a strong onshore wind to bring more

[bob rulz]

It's far too early to say whether it actually will hit Louisiana or not and whether it will even develop. Still, we should still definitely hope it doesn't.

[ROCK]

still has some energy left in it though. Model support seems to be coming around to developement in the GOM in the next few day. EURO has a closed low in the CGOM...CMC and GFS are seeing it also...

[Frank2]

Hard to understand the models making much of it since it's a disorganized wave tracking over moutainous islands (the wave axis already moving inland over the Dominican Republic) - going out on a limb to say they'll back off in later runs this weekend (of course Bill Murray said the same about a blizzard not hitting Pittsburgh - lol)...

Frank

[xironman]

Hard to understand the models making much of it since it's a disorganized wave tracking over moutainous islands (the wave axis already moving inland over the Dominican Republic

I thought the latest position was here.

[Macrocane]

Hard to understand the models making much of it since it's a disorganized wave tracking over moutainous islands (the wave axis already moving inland over the Dominican Republic) - going out on a limb to say they'll back off in later runs this weekend (of course Bill Murray said the same about a blizzard not hitting Pittsburgh - lol)...

Frank

The mountains will prevent development but they don't dissipate the waves, look at the EPAC storms they form from tropical waves that have tracked over the mountains of Central America but when they reach an environment with good conditions they develop, that may happen with 92 L if it finds at least marginally favorable conditions it could develop.

[cycloneye]

Another thing is that they have not deactivated 92L yet.They could have done it already but is still active with that long track that I have posted.

[Frank2]

Here's the 06Z surface analysis, so 12 hours later the axis should be moving inland over the Dominican Republic (or over the Mona Passage), based on it's forward speed:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_06Z.gif

[Frank2]

Here's the 12z surface analysis (at 18Z the wave axis should be about 60 miles further west, so that's very close to the coast of the Dominican Republic, or just inland):

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_12Z.gif

and true about tropical waves not dissipating over mountainous terrain, since like other type of waves they move around objects but retain their identity (to some extent), but whether this develops into a closed low is another issue...

Frank

[cycloneye]

Below is Dr Jeff Masters from Weatherunderground discussion of the prospects for development of 92L.

92L could develop by Wednesday
Today through Monday, 92L will encounter 20 - 40 knots of wind shear as it plows though a region of strong upper-level winds associated with the subtropical jet stream. The disturbance will also encounter the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola and Cuba, though it appears that much of the disturbance's energy is tracking almost due west, and thus may escape disruption by these islands. If 92L manages to hold together through the high wind shear, dry air, and mountainous terrain of Hispaniola and Cuba, it may have the opportunity to develop beginning on Tuesday, when it may enter a region of wind shear less than 20 knots in the region near central Cuba. Some modest moistening of the atmosphere may also occur at that time, according to the latest SHIPS model run. The latest 12Z GFS model run indicates re-organization of 92L may occur by Wednesday over the waters near the Lower Florida Keys, but the ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET models do not show this. The obstacles that 92L must overcome to become a tropic depression in the Gulf of Mexico near week are significant, and I give 92L a 20% chance of eventually developing into a tropical depression by Friday.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 191732
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUN 19 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS...WHICH COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...AND GUSTY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO OVER PORTIONS OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...AND HAITI AS THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON
THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE REFER TO PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

It's raining very nicely since 15 minutes in my area, thunder is rumbling a bit too. No winds, weather is grey and sad, moist.

[KWT]

I think it certainly has a shot in the Gulf, the GFS solution really isn't at all outlandish, indeed climatology favours something to develop in this region if it is going to develop.

I'd say its more likely it won't develop than it will in the Gulf but its going to have time but there does appear to still be some shear in the Gulf according to some of the models unless the system really speeds up or slows down somewhat.