ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - DISCUSSION

#1141 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 24, 2010 6:32 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUN 24 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED BETWEEN THE EASTERN TIP OF HONDURAS
AND JAMAICA HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED THIS EVENING. SURFACE
PRESSURES HAVE BEEN FALLING IN THE AREA AND THERE HAS BEEN AN
INCREASE IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY
BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE IT REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE

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#1142 Postby bahamaswx » Thu Jun 24, 2010 6:36 pm

I'm on board for this to really wrap up tonight.
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#1143 Postby Cdeck81 » Thu Jun 24, 2010 6:37 pm

Code RED!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - DISCUSSION

#1144 Postby tolakram » Thu Jun 24, 2010 6:37 pm

Too bad they don't have high speed on today. Anyway here's an evening recording of the LLC being sucked / reforming under the convection. Best quality is 720P.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a5by_aJTLx4[/youtube]
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Re: Re:

#1145 Postby drezee » Thu Jun 24, 2010 6:38 pm

wxman57 wrote:
brunota2003 wrote:I don't get it...these waves have had near prime conditions (according to current standards) to develop, and then even intensify. Little dry air, hot SSTs, low shear, low pressures...heck, some even already had a low pressure on them! Yet they keep failing...why?

What criteria have we overlooked in the past that is clearly not there currently?


We weren't expecting it to come together until Friday. Today is Wednesday. It's consolidating very slowly. Come back Friday.


Great Call, 57. Credit given when due...
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#1146 Postby KWT » Thu Jun 24, 2010 6:39 pm

Ah so we are at 60% now, I'm not surprised when they went to code Red, because once we knew there is a LLC its just a matter of getting convection over the system, when there is convection present but dislocated with the LLC, the NHC tend to go for about 60% most times from what I've observed.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - DISCUSSION

#1147 Postby lrak » Thu Jun 24, 2010 6:40 pm

Ivanhater wrote:There is the 1006.7mb

Image



Nice website, thanks Ivanhater.
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#1148 Postby bahamaswx » Thu Jun 24, 2010 6:54 pm

What's up with the 940mb readings all over central america? Broken equipment, or are they taking readings from way up in the mountains?
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Re:

#1149 Postby Air Force Met » Thu Jun 24, 2010 7:08 pm

bahamaswx wrote:What's up with the 940mb readings all over central america? Broken equipment, or are they taking readings from way up in the mountains?


Yes...those are station pressures...not altimeter settings.
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#1150 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Thu Jun 24, 2010 7:09 pm

What time are you thinking for this to develop Air Force met?
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Re:

#1151 Postby abajan » Thu Jun 24, 2010 7:13 pm

bahamaswx wrote:What's up with the 940mb readings all over central america? Broken equipment, or are they taking readings from way up in the mountains?
Yes, it's my assumption those readings were taken at elevation. Otherwise this hurricane season is even more active than anticipated! :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - DISCUSSION

#1152 Postby clfenwi » Thu Jun 24, 2010 7:14 pm

Rated by SAB

24/2345 UTC 15.7N 82.2W T1.0/1.0 93L -- Atlantic
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Re:

#1153 Postby Air Force Met » Thu Jun 24, 2010 7:18 pm

Hurricane Andrew wrote:What time are you thinking for this to develop Air Force met?


Sometime overnight or early tomorrow. Not sure when they will officially upgrade it...they may wait for recon or just good vis loops. It certainly won't be upgraded officially until sometime tomorrow.
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Re: Re:

#1154 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Thu Jun 24, 2010 7:21 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
Hurricane Andrew wrote:What time are you thinking for this to develop Air Force met?


Sometime overnight or early tomorrow. Not sure when they will officially upgrade it...they may wait for recon or just good vis loops. It certainly won't be upgraded officially until sometime tomorrow.

Thanks.

My guess is TD by 11AM tommorow.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - DISCUSSION

#1155 Postby clfenwi » Thu Jun 24, 2010 7:22 pm

All-time June climo for TD's passing through vicinity of 93L's path (east of Yucatan/Central America):

Image

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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - DISCUSSION

#1156 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 24, 2010 7:22 pm

00 UTC Best Track

AL, 93, 2010062500, , BEST, 0, 160N, 816W, 25, 1006, LO

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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - DISCUSSION

#1157 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Thu Jun 24, 2010 7:23 pm

cycloneye wrote:00 UTC Best Track

AL, 93, 2010062500, , BEST, 0, 160N, 816W, 25, 1006, LO


1006? The pressure is lowering.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - DISCUSSION

#1158 Postby wxman57 » Thu Jun 24, 2010 7:24 pm

No reason to upgrade before recon gets there tomorrow afternoon. There would have to be quite compelling surface obs to do so beforehand.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - DISCUSSION

#1159 Postby Nederlander » Thu Jun 24, 2010 7:24 pm

maybe someone can help me understand this.. I am looking at the IR shortwave loop and to me it appears the LLC is near 16N-78W.. isnt this farther east than where we thought it was?

edit: nevermind.. my eyes are playing tricks on me.. i see the spin now under that convection ( I think).. i hate losing vis at sunset..
Last edited by Nederlander on Thu Jun 24, 2010 7:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#1160 Postby KWT » Thu Jun 24, 2010 7:26 pm

Ah so now we have Dvorak numbers and interestingly got a LO on the best track...

I'd suspect they will wait for recon unless they feel confident enough in the Vis imagery tomorrow and convection has lasted long enough with the circulation in the same spot...

I think the 1921 storm isn't a bad match thus far given the current location, track and models...
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