ATL : EX TOMAS - Discussion

[Blown Away]

What a beautiful LLC, once shear eases that tight little circulation should have no problem building back up.

[Macrocane]

Thta convection over the center is growing a little and more convection seems to be developing around it, could it mean that shear is relaxing? It looks to me like the flow in the upper level is still very different from the flow in the low level so that convection may soon be decoupled form the LLC.

[TheBurn]

13:15

[cyclonic chronic]

what a difference a day makes, huh? it does have a nice low level circulation core. if that can remain, even if it gets a little elongated or looser,once the shear/dry air lessens a bit tomas has a good shot at getting back to a cane.IMO

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[hurricaneCW]

:uarrow: What a beautiful LLC, once shear eases that tight little circulation should have no problem building back up.

If the LLC remains relatively convection free, then it will unravel and potentially dissipate. I'm not sure it's going to survive for 3 days without convection and even if it does, it will probably become a very weak LLC that would take time for it to come back together and produce something. It also looks like the LLC is moving wsw, it might come very close to SA if that continues.

It seems like the difference between this season and 2005 is that 2005 went against climatology several times while this season is strictly abiding to climatology. Tomas looked amazing when it was east of the islands, but then late October came around (climatology) and put it back in its place.

[HURAKAN]

Bonaire:

9 AM (13) Nov 01 86 (30) 77 (25) 29.88 (1012) W 7

[Nimbus]

The official forecast still has this recurving east of Cuba possibly as a Cat1. That sounds serious for Haiti.

[GCANE]

That hot-tower to the SE that fired earlier this morning no doubt injected heat into the core and as a result increased ascent.

The cells are now firing in the ADT bullseye and seem to be deepening.

If rain-rate takes off, we could see a very quick recovery.

[HurricaneBelle]

It seems like the difference between this season and 2005 is that 2005 went against climatology several times while this season is strictly abiding to climatology. Tomas looked amazing when it was east of the islands, but then late October came around (climatology) and put it back in its place.

There was nothing climatological about Tomas' development, as the various records and statistics cited a few days ago indicated. The amount of post-October 1 development hasn't been climatological either. 2010 is a different season than 2005, but strict adherence to climatology isn't one of its strong suits.

[GCANE]

WV nicely shows the interaction of the large MCS to the SE and the new convection firing east of the LLC.

Seems to be getting a good infeed from it at mid-levels.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html

[cycloneye]

Still no watches for Haiti nor Dominican Republic at the 11 AM advisory. When will they start to issue them? I ask because we know how the infrastructure of Haiti is and warning well ahead would be a good thing.

[hurricanefloyd5]

The official forecast still has this recurving east of Cuba possibly as a Cat1. That sounds serious for Haiti.

I pray that it hits jamaca and cuba and miss haiti

[cycloneye]

I pray that it hits jamaca and cuba and miss haiti

I really pray that is doesn't affect anyone and dissipates.

[HURAKAN]

Still no watches for Haiti nor Dominican Republic at the 11 AM advisory. When will they start to issue them? I ask because we know how the infrastructure of Haiti is and warning well ahead would be a good thing.

Landfall is still about 96 hours away. Tomorrow will be the earliest advisories go up.

[Gustywind]

I pray that it hits jamaca and cuba and miss haiti

I really pray that is doesn't affect anyone and dissipates.

Excellent reasoning , i really pray that the season will end up quickly and nothing more!

[Ptarmigan]

I see the naked swirl which is now flaring up. I expect to see watches and warnings for Haiti and Dominican Republic soon. It is going to be a big problem for them.

[Ptarmigan]

If the LLC remains relatively convection free, then it will unravel and potentially dissipate. I'm not sure it's going to survive for 3 days without convection and even if it does, it will probably become a very weak LLC that would take time for it to come back together and produce something. It also looks like the LLC is moving wsw, it might come very close to SA if that continues.

It seems like the difference between this season and 2005 is that 2005 went against climatology several times while this season is strictly abiding to climatology. Tomas looked amazing when it was east of the islands, but then late October came around (climatology) and put it back in its place.

Both 2005 and 2010 were just one of a kind season. 2005 had storms form in areas you would least expect, notably the Northeastern Atlantic. 2010 also went against climatology.

[JonathanBelles]

I dont think I've ever been so happy to see a naked swirl in my life! I'm praying Tomas continues to fizzle.

[Sanibel]

South of west is an odd track for the East Caribbean.


I'm sure everybody on the board is glad Haiti will get a weaker storm. However you have to imagine it will move with the shear and strengthen before getting there.