ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

[Extremeweatherguy]

00z GFDL shifts south and also weaker than 18z run..

[Ivanhater]

gfdl is odd..no reason for it to weaken and turn sw when it was moving nw

[ConvergenceZone]

I don't know, the latest discussions seem very confident that it's heading to Mexico, and so do all of the Mets here...There have many many posts by the Mets here and I haven't heard one of them say that they think it's giong north of the Mexico/Texas border.

[vbhoutex]

That is very odd! Nothing showing yet that would indicate a reason for that.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

The only way I can see it moving back sw is the front not digging near as far south and have the ridge build back in blocking northward movement pushing him back south and west ie Katrina over florida and the far eastern gulf.

[Ivanhater]

Canadian

[CYCLONE MIKE]

First off can't believe I am staying up this late looking at freaking models of something that could not even happen

Ivan, what is the count up to now that show Alex nearing the upper tx or la coasts vs south tx/mexico hit? Have completely lost track now

[Nederlander]

Canadian

ouch.. how strong is that Ivan?

[americanre1]

Canadian

That looks like it could be Category 3 or 4 if I looked at the pressure gradiants correctly. Under 980 mb. I know it is a large system so it might be just a Cat. 2. But if Alex decides to come up to the Galveston area and then decides to stall for 3 or 4 days, that would cause horrific damage all along the Easter shores of Texas and all of Louisiana's shores. It would also probably push oil all over the coast from Tampa, Fl. to Morgan City, La.

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[Ivanhater]

Strong..it slows and bombs out before the HOUSTON area. The 12z run shifted north to the central Texas coast, the 00z even further north to match the 00z gfs

[americanre1]

Audrey slowed in the BOC 53 years ago and then zoomed north to LA/TX - hmmm. I know it's not the same set up as with Alex, but I was just thinking.

I was wondering if anyone has a map showing the course that Audrey took. Would like to see it so we could compare it to the current spaghetti models.

[ROCK]

45 minutes before I can see the EURO......longest 45 minutes in my 39yrs....

[Nederlander]

Audrey slowed in the BOC 53 years ago and then zoomed north to LA/TX - hmmm. I know it's not the same set up as with Alex, but I was just thinking.

I was wondering if anyone has a map showing the course that Audrey took. Would like to see it so we could compare it to the current spaghetti models.

Audrey went pretty much north in the GOM.. i see Alex curving more, if the cmc verifies..

[ROCK]

Strong..it slows and bombs out before the HOUSTON area. The 12z run shifted north to the central Texas coast, the 00z even further north to match the 00z gfs

trend is north Ivan...all have moved north..some slightly others more extreme....

[Sambucol]

Strong..it slows and bombs out before the HOUSTON area. The 12z run shifted north to the central Texas coast, the 00z even further north to match the 00z gfs

This is sickening if this happens. We were hit hard by Ike. I will check back in the morning. I had thought it was basically a done deal that the Texas to Florida coastline was spared from Alex. I really appreciate all of the updates here. Thank you.

[americanre1]

Audrey slowed in the BOC 53 years ago and then zoomed north to LA/TX - hmmm. I know it's not the same set up as with Alex, but I was just thinking.

I was wondering if anyone has a map showing the course that Audrey took. Would like to see it so we could compare it to the current spaghetti models.

Audrey went pretty much north in the GOM.. i see Alex curving more, if the cmc verifies..

But didn't she start off as a TD in the same spot as Alex??? I could of swore I read that somewheres in here earlier. On the same exact day that Alex first became a TD.

[ROCK]

NOGAPS is next up to bat...then the all seeing all knowing EURO that I am beginning to dislike will bat clean up......

heres the NOGAPS....no real change...

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/dy ... oplant.gif

[Nederlander]

well its still a week out or so.. so my reliance on any particular model verifying is sketchy at best, especially with the setup we have.. but i think its kind of ironic that a week ago I volunteered for the hurricane response team at the chemical plant I work at south of houston, near galveston bay..

[Nederlander]

Strong..it slows and bombs out before the HOUSTON area. The 12z run shifted north to the central Texas coast, the 00z even further north to match the 00z gfs

This is sickening if this happens. We were hit hard by Ike. I will check back in the morning. I had thought it was basically a done deal that the Texas to Florida coastline was spared from Alex. I really appreciate all of the updates here. Thank you.

this is exactly why i hate when people use the words definitely, for sure, and 100% when talking about tropical forecasting.. things happen, models shift.. im not getting bent out of shape yet and I would caution EVERYONE to not panic yet.. always be prepared, but in a couple of days we will have a much better idea of whats going to pan out I think..

on a lighter note, I'm going to sarcastically chuckle if the euro stays put.. im kind of expecting it..

[LaBreeze]

Yes, americanre1, Audrey became a TD in the same area and on the same date as Alex, then she crossed the Yucatan and stalled briefly in the BOC where she became a hurricane. From there she headed north quickly - faster than we were being told at the time.