ARABIAN SEA - DEEP DEPRESSION (03A)

[ugaap]

JTWC 65 knots & 974 Mb. @ 17.2N 61.8E

[Alacane2]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

RSMC – TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI

TROPICAL STORM ‘PHET’ ADVISORY NO. FOUR ISSUED AT 2000 UTC OF 01 JUNE 2010 BASED ON 1800 UTC CHARTS OF 01 JUNE.

THE CYCLONIC STORM, “PHET” OVER WESTCENTRAL & ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED NORTHWESTWARD AND LAY CENTRED AT 1800 UTC OF 01ST JUNE 2010 NEAR LATITUDE 17.00N AND LONG. 62.00E, ABOUT 1200 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI(43003), 1000 KM SOUTHWEST OF NALIYA(42631) AND 1000 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI(41781).

SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 45 KNOTS. THE STATE OF THE SEA IS HIGH TO VERY HIGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 990 HPA.

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST PATTERN. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T3.0. ASSOCIATED BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION OBSERVED OVER AREA BETWEEN LAT. 12.50 N TO 19.00 N AND LONG. 56.00 TO 64.00 E. THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE (CTT) DUE TO CONVECTION IS BETWEEN -700C TO -800C IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM.

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF HORIZONTAL WIND OVER THE REGION IS BETWEEN 05-15 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM LIES TO THE SOUTH OF TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE, WHICH ROUGHLY RUNS ALONG 20.00 N OVER THE REGION. THE RELATIVE VORTICITY AT 850 HPA LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ARE ALSO FAVOURABLE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM WOULD INTENSIFY INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM AND MOVE SLOWLY IN A NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY/NORTHERLY DIRECTION FOR NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN RECURVE NORTHEASTWARDS TOWARDS GUJARAT & ADJOINING PAKISTAN COAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH IN MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AT 500 HPA LEVEL. SQUALLY WINDS WITH SPEED REACHING 55-65 KMPH GUSTING TO 65 KMPH WOULD COMMENCE ALONG AND OFF OMAN COAST AS A PERIPHERAL AFFECT OF THE SYSTEM FROM AFTERNOON OF 2ND JUNE.

BASED ON LATEST ANALYSIS WITH NWP MODELS AND OTHER CONVENTIONAL TECHNIQUES, ESTIMATED TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM ARE GIVEN BELOW:


DATE/TIME(UTC)
POSITION (LAT. 0N/ LONG. 0E)
SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED (KMPH)

01-06-2010/1800
17.0/62.0
75-85 GUSTING TO 95

02-06-2010/0000
17.5/62.0
75-85 GUSTING TO 95

02-06-2010/0600
18.0/62.0
85-95 GUSTING TO 105

02-06-2010/1200
18.5/62.0
95-105 GUSTING TO 115

02-06-2010/1800
19.0/62.5
105-115 GUSTING TO 125

03-06-2010/0000
20.0/63.0
115-125 GUSTING TO 135

03-06-2010/1200
21.5/65.0
125-135 GUSTING TO 150

04-06-2010/0000
22.5/67.0
125-135 GUSTING TO 150

04-06-.2010/1200
23.5/69.0
135-145 GUSTING TO 160

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[KWT]

That eyewall really is wrapping around very well right now, thats a rather worrying development becuase that was open 9hrs ago on the western side.

[ugaap]

JTWC 90 knots & 956 mb. @ 17.5N 61.0E

[cycloneye]

Here is the latest image.

[Alacane2]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

RSMC – TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI

TROPICAL STORM ‘PHET’ ADVISORY NO. FIVE ISSUED AT 0000 UTC OF 02 JUNE 2010 BASED ON 2100 UTC CHARTS OF 01 JUNE.

THE CYCLONIC STORM, “PHET” OVER WESTCENTRAL & ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA REMAINED PRACTICALLY STATIONARY AND LAY CENTRED AT 2100 UTC OF 01ST JUNE 2010 NEAR LATITUDE 17.00N AND LONG. 62.00E, ABOUT 1200 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI(43003), 1000 KM SOUTHWEST OF NALIYA(42631) AND 1000 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI(41781).

SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 45 KNOTS. THE STATE OF THE SEA IS HIGH TO VERY HIGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 990 HPA.

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST PATTERN. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T3.0. ASSOCIATED BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION OBSERVED OVER AREA BETWEEN LAT. 12.50 N TO 19.00 N AND LONG. 56.00 TO 64.00 E. THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE (CTT) DUE TO CONVECTION IS BETWEEN -700C TO -800C IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM.

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF HORIZONTAL WIND OVER THE REGION IS BETWEEN 05-15 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM LIES TO THE SOUTH OF TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE, WHICH ROUGHLY RUNS ALONG 20.00 N OVER THE REGION. THE RELATIVE VORTICITY AT 850 HPA LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ARE ALSO FAVOURABLE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM WOULD INTENSIFY INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM AND MOVE SLOWLY IN A NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY/NORTHERLY DIRECTION FOR NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN RECURVE NORTHEASTWARDS TOWARDS GUJARAT & ADJOINING PAKISTAN COAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH IN MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AT 500 HPA LEVEL. SQUALLY WINDS WITH SPEED REACHING 55-65 KMPH GUSTING TO 65 KMPH WOULD COMMENCE ALONG AND OFF OMAN COAST AS A PERIPHERAL AFFECT OF THE SYSTEM FROM AFTERNOON OF 2ND JUNE.

BASED ON LATEST ANALYSIS WITH NWP MODELS AND OTHER CONVENTIONAL TECHNIQUES, ESTIMATED TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM ARE GIVEN BELOW:



Date/Time(IST)
Position (lat. 0N/ long. 0E)
Sustained maximum surface wind speed (kmph)

02-06-2010/2100
17.0/62.0
75-85 gusting to 95

02-06-2010/0000
17.5/62.0
75-85 gusting to 95

02-06-2010/0600
18.0/62.0
85-95 gusting to 105

02-06-2010/1200
18.5/62.0
95-105 gusting to 115

02-06-2010/1800
19.0/62.5
105-115 gusting to 125

03-06-2010/0000
20.0/63.0
115-125 gusting to 135

03-06-2010/1200
21.0/64.0
125-135 gusting to 150

04-06-2010/0000
22.0/66.0
125-135 gusting to 150

04-06-.2010/1200
23.0/68.0
135-145 gusting to 160

05-06-.2010/0000
24.0/70.0
95-105 gusting to 115

[HURAKAN]

Very impressive

[ugaap]

IMD New Delhi
ARB 02/2010/11 Dated: 02.06.2010

Time of issue: 0530 hours IST



Sub: Cyclonic storm, ‘PHET’ over westcentral & adjoining eastcentral Arabian Sea.



The cyclonic storm, “PHET” over westcentral & adjoining eastcentral Arabian Sea remained practically stationary and lay centred at 0230 hrs IST of 02nd June 2010 near latitude 17.00N and long. 62.00E, about 1200 km west-southwest of Mumbai, 1000 km southwest of Naliya (Kutch, Gujarat) and 1000 km southwest of Karachi (Pakistan)



The current environmental condition and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models suggest that the system would intensify further into a severe cyclonic storm and move slowly in a north-northwesterly/northerly direction for next 24 hours and then recurve northeastwards towards Gujarat & adjoining Pakistan coast.



Based on latest analysis with NWP models and other conventional techniques, estimated track and intensity of the system are given below:



Date/Time(IST)


Position (lat. 0N/ long. 0E)


Sustained maximum surface wind speed (kmph)

02-06-2010/0230


17.0/62.0


75-85 gusting to 95

02-06-2010/0530


17.5/62.0


75-85 gusting to 95

02-06-2010/1130


18.0/62.0


85-95 gusting to 105

02-06-2010/1730


18.5/62.0


95-105 gusting to 115

02-06-2010/2330


19.0/62.5


105-115 gusting to 125

03-06-2010/0530


20.0/63.0


115-125 gusting to 135

03-06-2010/1730


21.0/64.0


125-135 gusting to 150

04-06-2010/0530


22.0/66.0


125-135 gusting to 150

04-06-.2010/1730


23.0/68.0


135-145 gusting to 160

05-06-.2010/0530


24.0/70.0


95-105 gusting to 115



Under the influence of this system, fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls would commence over coastal areas of Gujarat from 4th June 2010 and increase thereafter. Squally winds with speed reaching 65-75 kmph gusting 85 kmph would commence along and off Gujarat coast from 3rd June 2010 and increase gradually.



Sea condition will be high to very high along and off Gujarat coast from 3rd June 2010. Fishermen are advised not venture into the sea.



Next bulletin will be issued at 0830 hrs IST of 02nd June 2010.

[Category 5]

Does IMD really have this at 45kts? I mean I'm not one to rip professional organizations but are there any actual mets working at IMD? I mean what the heck.

[srainhoutx]

[Grifforzer]

Does IMD really have this at 45kts? I mean I'm not one to rip professional organizations but are there any actual mets working at IMD? I mean what the heck.

not really.

They have the system at least 50-60 knots now. Just wait for the 0:00 AM UTC advisory to be released to see that they have increased the winds.

[HURAKAN]

Latest loop

[Grifforzer]

ARB02/2010/12 Dated: 02.06.2010
Time of issue: 0700 hours IST

Sub: Severe cyclonic storm, ‘PHET’ over westcentral & adjoining eastcentral Arabian Sea.

The cyclonic storm, “PHET” over westcentral & adjoining eastcentral Arabian Sea intensify further into a severe cyclonic storm and moved northwestward and lay centred at 0530 hrs IST of today, 02nd June 2010 near latitude 17.50N and long. 61.50E, about 1200 km west-southwest of Mumbai, 1000 km southwest of Naliya (Kutch, Gujarat) and 1000 km southwest of Karachi (Pakistan).

The current environmental condition and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models suggest that the system would intensify further into a very severe cyclonic storm and move slowly in a north-northwesterly/northerly direction for next 24 hours and then recurve northeastwards towards Gujarat & adjoining Pakistan coast.

[Cyclenall]

It's shape is similar to Cyclone Gonu from 2007 which was also in June and in the Arabian Sea. It's definitely rapidly deepening. Should be near 100 knots 1-min by now.

[CrazyC83]

I agree this is fairly similar to Gonu and surely went into RI in the last 12 hours. Probably about 100 kt right now (pressure guess 954mb).

[CrazyC83]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 02 JUN 2010 Time : 030000 UTC
Lat : 17:45:00 N Lon : 60:50:51 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.7 / 935.4mb/107.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.5 6.0 6.0

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -42.0C Cloud Region Temp : -73.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[shah8]

Infrared 3:30 ('bout an hour after that microwave) is showing one of those "Dat's bad news...Dat's vberry bad news" sort of pinhole eye. Looks Wilma size.

[HURAKAN]

Latest