ATL : INVEST 92L - MODELS

[artist]

when was the upgrade to the cmc supposed to occur?

[Nederlander]

when was the upgrade to the cmc supposed to occur?

pretty sure its not until late this fall.. november or so

[artist]

when was the upgrade to the cmc supposed to occur?

pretty sure its not until late this fall.. november or so

Thanks Nederlander. I had thought I had heard in June some time. You are probably right.

[Ivanhater]

12z Canadian continues to hold onto 92L in the Caribbean

[southerngale]

when was the upgrade to the cmc supposed to occur?

wxman57 posted recently that it would be September at the earliest.

[Blown Away]

18z Bam's available?

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF shows what is left of 92L in the Western Caribbean.

[cycloneye]

18z Bam's available?

So far no 18z run.

[shah8]

You know, that's the least interesting aspect of that ECM plot. That train of storms!

Nogaps 12z shows absolutely nothing from anywheres--methinks a botched run.

[cycloneye]

BAM models running again.

846
WHXX01 KWBC 160029
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0029 UTC WED JUN 16 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922010) 20100616 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100616 0000 100616 1200 100617 0000 100617 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.1N 47.5W 15.1N 50.2W 16.0N 52.7W 16.7N 55.6W
BAMD 14.1N 47.5W 14.9N 49.3W 15.5N 50.9W 15.8N 52.4W
BAMM 14.1N 47.5W 14.9N 50.0W 15.6N 52.2W 16.1N 54.4W
LBAR 14.1N 47.5W 15.4N 50.0W 16.4N 52.3W 17.2N 54.7W
SHIP 30KTS 31KTS 33KTS 32KTS
DSHP 30KTS 31KTS 33KTS 32KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100618 0000 100619 0000 100620 0000 100621 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.6N 58.2W 19.1N 63.3W 20.0N 68.2W 20.9N 73.0W
BAMD 16.1N 54.2W 17.0N 57.5W 17.7N 60.4W 18.2N 63.1W
BAMM 16.6N 56.7W 17.5N 60.9W 17.8N 64.6W 18.3N 68.3W
LBAR 18.3N 57.1W 20.6N 61.0W 23.3N 63.9W 26.3N 64.4W
SHIP 33KTS 32KTS 33KTS 35KTS
DSHP 33KTS 32KTS 33KTS 34KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.1N LONCUR = 47.5W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 13.0N LONM12 = 44.4W DIRM12 = 300DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 11.3N LONM24 = 42.1W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Blown Away]

Not that it really matters, but the 12z ship was 0 kts at 96 and 120 hours and the 00z ship maintains a TD at those times.

[Ivanhater]

It is the NAM, but has a pretty good reflection of 92L at 84 hours

[ROCK]

It is the NAM, but has a pretty good reflection of 92L at 84 hours

NAM? you know better bro....

[Ivanhater]

I know Rock, is this what im reduced to? jk but seriously the 00z GFS shows 92 L regenerating some in the Gulf. Euro and canadian have been hinting at this, needs to be watched

[Ivanhater]

00Z Canadian in the Gulf

[Ivanhater]

add 00z Euro to showing a strong reflection of 92L in the Gulf..starts to restrengthen it along with the gfs

[Blown Away]

Luis where is the 06z Bam's?

[cycloneye]

Luis where is the 06z Bam's?

They didn't run.

[cycloneye]

Blown Away,here are the 12 UTC BAMS.


WHXX01 KWBC 161223
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1223 UTC WED JUN 16 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922010) 20100616 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100616 1200 100617 0000 100617 1200 100618 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.3N 50.8W 14.9N 53.7W 15.6N 57.0W 16.4N 59.9W
BAMD 14.3N 50.8W 14.8N 52.3W 15.2N 53.7W 15.6N 55.3W
BAMM 14.3N 50.8W 15.0N 53.1W 15.4N 55.3W 15.9N 57.6W
LBAR 14.3N 50.8W 15.0N 53.3W 15.7N 55.8W 16.5N 58.5W
SHIP 30KTS 29KTS 27KTS 26KTS
DSHP 30KTS 29KTS 27KTS 26KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100618 1200 100619 1200 100620 1200 100621 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.0N 63.0W 18.0N 68.4W 18.1N 73.7W 18.7N 78.5W
BAMD 15.9N 57.0W 16.5N 60.1W 17.0N 63.3W 18.1N 66.5W
BAMM 16.3N 59.9W 16.8N 63.8W 16.9N 68.1W 17.8N 72.3W
LBAR 17.2N 61.2W 19.3N 66.0W 21.6N 69.6W 24.6N 71.2W
SHIP 26KTS 27KTS 32KTS 42KTS
DSHP 26KTS 27KTS 32KTS 42KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.3N LONCUR = 50.8W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 14.1N LONM12 = 47.5W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 13.0N LONM24 = 44.4W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Blown Away]

I'm not really bullish on 92L's development, but I guess I'm the only one that finds it interesting the Ship's builds 92L to a TS at 120 hours and the intensity is slightly higher than the 00z run.

Thank you Luis I get very anxious when the Bam's don't run!!