ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

[ROCK]

Weatherfreak....Ivan and I have been around a long long time...and since we are waiting on the 0z GFS to complete I thought a little musing was in order....if you would like to discuss more you can PM me...

[brunota2003]

Oiy...it is the beginning of the season, and nothing bad has happened yet...can everyone lighten up, please? What good is observing the weather if you can't have a little fun mixed in with the seriousness?

Though I will say, if you are going to quote a post with an image in it, can ya pretty please erase the img tags and just leave the link?

[Ivanhater]

Lol Rock, the NAM was just too pretty not to post

00Z gfs rolling, not expecting much though..

[Wx_Warrior]

I was labeled a EURO hugger by the Rock last year. Got to have a little fun...Heck, I've endured Rita & Ike, so a jab or two is fine with me.

I heart EURO

[ROCK]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_084l.gif


84hr GFS nothing to look at really....


I remember that WX Warrior....fun times....now I hug the EURO...go figure...

[Ivanhater]

Well the 00z GFS now at least has a surface reflection. Given this, I find it hard for a surface low not to take advantage of the upper air ridge and TCHP. Time will tell though...


120 hours over Yucatan

[ROCK]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_138l.gif

buries it in the Yucatan....I wonder what it is seeing that keeps it from developing....interesting...

[Weatherfreak000]

In my experiences, the GFS is a fairly worthless model without a surface feature to initialize. It's not as if 93L is heading for a 40kt shear zone like 92L was.

[Wx_Warrior]

It's been both good & bad at times.

[thetruesms]

:uarrow: Yes the 12Z and 00Z runs have fresh data..

This post is a bit vague - it implies that the 18Z and 06Z runs have no new information, which isn't true at all. What (I'm fairly sure) Aqua is saying is that the 12 and 00Z runs incorporate fresh radiosonde data, which is obviously pretty important

Is that orange model (the CLP5) reliable at all? Because if it is.... .....I don't mean to get this anxious this far out but..you know....

So, if I understand correctly - the faster / more powerful 93L becomes, the more it tracks to the right, and the longer it takes to develop, the more it tracks to the left?

In a word, no. The CLP model is not a good predictive model for tropical systems. I forget at the moment what it IS good for, perhaps someone else will check in on that.

The skill of forecast models is generally measured relative to climatology

[Ivanhater]

Canadian rolling..so far 1005mb low in the west caribbean

[Ivanhater]

now 1002..still rolling

[boca]

If 93L develops than the GFS has something to initialize with instead of pushing a weak sysytem into the Yucatan like its doing.

[Ivanhater]

uh oh...canadian back on board

[boca]

It will be intersting to see what the Euro comes out with comparing tonights to last nites runs.The Canadian run which Ivanhater posted kinda looks like what the Euro was showing last night.

[ROCK]

CMC to verify would mean a weaker ridge and or stronger system...also it would mean pushing a whole lot of oil inland along a large area...not good...

[Ivanhater]

Check out the frame before it Rock..swings another system in from the east and they merge. Odd. I'm about to go digging for the long range canadian

[Ivanhater]

00z Nogaps, not really impressed

[HurricaneRobert]

GFDL starts with the center further east than I think it will be. If that were so, would the track be more to the right too?

I hope this wave dies. Anywhere from Texas to Florida is guaranteed an oily mess.

[Wx_Warrior]

No offense guys, but IMO, CMC = terrible.