ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion

[tailgater]

LOOP: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

Is it over the gulf now?

Answering my own question.

More frames: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=12

Speed this up. It appears the circulation, broad as it is, is just off the west coast of Florida, near Sanibel. Sanibel reporting ESE winds

I see what yall are seeing on the loop but this chart shows it a little farther south near the Keys.

[Aric Dunn]

Its pretty clear there is a low forming just WSW of Ft Myers. still a lot of shear but that could change..

[Nimbus]

These lows tend to form as far south on a digging front as they can. That means this system will have more time over the warm gulf SST's. Unfortunately there is bound to be a window for development with that much time over water.

[srainhoutx]

I know Luis posted this in the RECON thread...

000
NOUS42 KNHC 091400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT MON 09 AUGUST 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 10/1100Z TO 11/1100Z AUGUST 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-071

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA - GULF OF MEXICO
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 10/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
C. 10/1600Z
D. 26.0N 84.0W
E. 10/1730 - 2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 11/0600Z -1200Z
B. AFXXX 0205A CYCLONE
C. 11/0430Z
D. 27.0N 85.5W
E. 11/0500 -1200Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6 HRLY FIXES
IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

[sandyb]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

is that a second low trying to develop around 77 and 28 looks like it might be trying to do something there anyone?

[ColinDelia]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

is that a second low trying to develop around 77 and 28 looks like it might be trying to do something there anyone?

That's the ULL that has been there for a while. I noticed it yesterday afternoon in the Northern Bahamas

[sandyb]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

is that a second low trying to develop around 77 and 28 looks like it might be trying to do something there anyone?

That's the ULL that has been there for a while. I noticed it yesterday afternoon in the Northern Bahamas

is anything gonna become of it do you think

[ColinDelia]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

is that a second low trying to develop around 77 and 28 looks like it might be trying to do something there anyone?

That's the ULL that has been there for a while. I noticed it yesterday afternoon in the Northern Bahamas

is anything gonna become of it do you think

Doesn't seem likely.

[Stormcenter]

It's funny how not much attention is being given to 94L on this board
or elsewhere. I know the models aren't making much of this and conditions
don't seem to be ideal for development. Yet we all know things change rapidly in the tropics and it is in the very warm GOM and it is August.

[StormClouds63]

The clock on the 2010 tropical season continues ticking ... so far, as of August 9, a pair of very weak TS and 1 category 2 hurricane. 94L could bring some beneficial rains and perhaps some squally weather, but models seem to be backing off of serious development. Anything over the GOM will be monitored carefully, however.

[Nikki]

It's funny how not much attention is being given to 94L on this board
or elsewhere. I know the models aren't making much of this and conditions
don't seem to be ideal for development. Yet we all know things change rapidly in the tropics and it is in the very warm GOM and it is August.

I agree with you. I think, at least for our area, people are noticing that the models have now taken Texas out of the conus and so now they have relaxed about this disturbance. I just don't want people to get too complacent and then get a surprise later on.

[Stormcenter]

So far so good in my opinion.

The Atlantic still looks very hostile.
Those high SSTs everyone keeps on
hyping won't mean much if conditions stay
the way they are there right now. IMO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

The clock on the 2010 tropical season continues ticking ... so far, as of August 9, a pair of very weak TS and 1 category 2 hurricane. 94L could bring some beneficial rains and perhaps some squally weather, but models seem to be backing off of serious development. Anything over the GOM will be monitored carefully, however.

[KWT]

Yeah there is a circulation down near SW Florida at the moment however I want to see it last as long as it can.

This is because these sorts of systems tend to develop not just one but several circulations in formation stage simply because of its origins.

[Aric Dunn]

It's funny how not much attention is being given to 94L on this board
or elsewhere. I know the models aren't making much of this and conditions
don't seem to be ideal for development. Yet we all know things change rapidly in the tropics and it is in the very warm GOM and it is August.

well people are paying attention but its going to be a waiting game and no need to post comments about every new satellite image. the models thread is a little more active. Its just not doing much at the moment and to much uncertainty best thing to do is check on it every so often for any changes.. that goes for 93L and any other interesting system. When something is nearing development and models are not in agreement thats when things get fast passed everywhere because everyone is looking at every piece of data trying to determine whats going to happen. I like just watching like this its fun...

Right now the system is still frontal in nature and its just not going to develop any time soon. there some signs of a low forming WSW of Ft myers and thats all we have it still disorganized and under high shear. that puts limits on what can happen and until the shear relaxes its going to have a very hard time doing much of anything except stay frontal in nature. However the shear is forecast to relax in the next 36 hours and then if we have a low forming or formed then the transition to a tropical system could start and even then it will take some time to transition so again watching and waiting is all anyone can do.. just not much to say at the moment that has not been said already..

[supercane]

I agree with you. I think, at least for our area, people are noticing that the models have now taken Texas out of the conus and so now they have relaxed about this disturbance. I just don't want people to get too complacent and then get a surprise later on.

Sorry, but I didn't know that the models had the ability to take Texas out of the CONUS (continental United States).

[Nikki]

I agree with you. I think, at least for our area, people are noticing that the models have now taken Texas out of the conus and so now they have relaxed about this disturbance. I just don't want people to get too complacent and then get a surprise later on.

Sorry, but I didn't know that the models had the ability to take Texas out of the CONUS (continental United States).

LOL Ok I am sorry. Let me correct myself.....The models are not pointing to Texas at this time. LOL HA HA Good call.....

[Aric Dunn]

The clock on the 2010 tropical season continues ticking ... so far, as of August 9, a pair of very weak TS and 1 category 2 hurricane. 94L could bring some beneficial rains and perhaps some squally weather, but models seem to be backing off of serious development. Anything over the GOM will be monitored carefully, however.

Stormcenter wrote:
It's funny how not much attention is being given to 94L on this board
or elsewhere. I know the models aren't making much of this and conditions
don't seem to be ideal for development. Yet we all know things change rapidly in the tropics and it is in the very warm GOM and it is August.



I agree with you. I think, at least for our area, people are noticing that the models have now taken Texas out of the conus and so now they have relaxed about this disturbance. I just don't want people to get too complacent and then get a surprise later on.

as for the models they should not be taken literally ever.. but even more so when the system is frontal and a transition is necessary to become tropical ... Models do very poorly at this and more often than not get it wrong.

[Nikki]

I agree with you Aric Dunn that the models should not be taken literally, however its sad that they are.

[tailgater]

I agree with you. I think, at least for our area, people are noticing that the models have now taken Texas out of the conus and so now they have relaxed about this disturbance. I just don't want people to get too complacent and then get a surprise later on.

Sorry, but I didn't know that the models had the ability to take Texas out of the CONUS (continental United States).

LOL Ok I am sorry. Let me correct myself.....The models are not pointing to Texas at this time. LOL HA HA Good call.....

Well they keep hyping it as a whole other country

[KWT]

Exactly Aric the models tend to be pretty poor usually with these sorts of systems, they tend to throw models curveballs quite often.