ATL: IGOR - Ex Hurricane - Discussion

[MGC]

Well, Igor sprung to life a bit quicker than I thought.....must have gotten a considerable jolt of juice to reanimate his circulation.....lets see how far west he tracks....models nearly always want to recurve too fast......MGC

[ConvergenceZone]

Hehe just for giggles, I dont' think I've ever seen a post by frank where
he forecasted a storm developing in the atlantic to hit the USA...

[cycloneye]

Ok folks, lets return to the topic in hand and that is about IGOR, not about other members. Thanks for your cooperation.

[ConvergenceZone]

Ok folks, lets return to the topic in hand and that is about IGOR, not about other members. Thanks for your cooperation.

yep, a 50% chance this will affect the USA down the line...
This can be really bad news down the road...

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[SouthFLTropics]

Looks like the two areas are merging together nicely with the LLC right in the middle of them...This could get big!

SFT

[mascpa]

Can someone please explain what ACE is, how it is computed, and what is the significance of the number? Thanks in advance.

[HURAKAN]

Can someone please explain what ACE is, how it is computed, and what is the significance of the number? Thanks in advance.

Code: Select all

Accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) is a measure used by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to express the activity of individual tropical cyclones and entire tropical cyclone seasons, particularly the North Atlantic hurricane season. It uses an approximation of the energy used by a tropical system over its lifetime and is calculated every six-hour period. The ACE of a season is the sum of the ACEs for each storm and takes into account the number, strength, and duration of all the tropical storms in the season.

Link - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy

[mascpa]

Excellent reply, thanks!

[BatzVI]

5. 1989's Hugo that devastated SC/NC

Please don't forget that this also devastated the Virgin Islands, namely St. Croix.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Ok here we go, is this the storm some are afraid may enter the Gulf WAY out in the forecast?

[DanKellFla]

This one is far east. When do you think Recon will make it to this storm? About a week or so? This is a good storm to try out the new UAVs and see how well they perform.

[cycloneye]

Excellent reply, thanks!

To add some more about the ACE. If it gets over 150 units,this season will be considered a hyperactive one,word that was mentioned many times by the experts in their seasonal forecasts.

[hurricaneCW]

Although I'm 99% sure it will recurve, it should still be monitored, I mean the Cape Verde islands are already under the threat zone (very rare). Right now I'm guessing the point of recurvature will be similar to Danielle's or around 60-62W. This one could be a massive monster so you wouldn't want it getting any closer.

[gatorcane]

I smell a recurve on this one..should be a nice large hurricane spinning away in the middle of the Atlantic impacting nobody.

[Sanibel]

Right over the Cape Verde Islands is a very high exit point for an African system.

[hurricaneCW]

I smell a recurve on this one..should be a nice large hurricane spinning away in the middle of the Atlantic impacting nobody.

Except the east coast waters, more rip currents equals more trouble, not to mention it could get close to Bermuda. Luckily the Labor day weekend is over and the beaches should start to rapidly calm down. I would also bet that most of those models shift westward in time because when Earl first formed, they had him recurving as early as 45-50W.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[ConvergenceZone]

You guys are probably all right afterall about an early recurve

[Brent]

You guys are probably all right afterall about an early recurve

I'm not sold yet. It's got awhile before it will if it does.