ATL: JULIA - Ex-TC - Discussion

[dexterlabio]

Meteorologists will surely find it hard to make a prediction if Igor and Julia will have this direct cyclone interaction or a Fujiwara effect. For this to happen, Julia must have to be at least a cat1 to affect Igor's movement. Should they be rotating along a common point counterclockwise, the one who will be located north of the other will move west to southwest and the one below the other will move east to northeast. I believe that the weaker one will suffer this kind of interaction, and if the weaker one has significantly weakened, the stronger one would eventually resume to its original path.

[WeatherGuesser]

No change for Julia at 5AM either:

Code: Select all

...JULIA VERY NEAR THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH NO CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 24.6W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

[TheBurn]

[KWT]

Looks like Julia is in the first stages of trying to wrapping itself around, I expect it to get stronger soon and I suspect its got every chance of becoming a hurricane a little down the line.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track

AL, 12, 2010091312, , BEST, 0, 146N, 256W, 35, 1004, TS

[KWT]

Surprised they've held it at 35kts to be honest, I'd have possibly raised it a little given the way its starting to try and wrap around.

[HURAKAN]

Interesting how these systems have been able to form right off Africa but they have struggled to intensify at first. It's not until they're moving away, far from the continent that they begin to intensify. Maybe the circulation is drawing some dry air. Don't know.

[expat2carib]

Just to keep the thread alive:

Poor little Julia. Her big brother Igor is taking all attention even that she is trying her best. She is showing herself from the best side and decided to go fishing instead of being angry and hit something on her path. She's OK! Good personality

Please don't ignore little Julia! She is really doing her best and deserves some attention

[cycloneye]

Just to keep the thread alive:

Poor little Julia. Her big brother Igor is taking all attention even that she is trying her best. She is showing herself from the best side and decided to go fishing instead of being angry and hit something on her path. She's OK! Good personality

Please don't ignore little Julia! She is really doing her best and deserves some attention

Thank you for the promo Is understandable that Igor gets all the attention,but at least, anyone can make comments about this system and about any possible interaction with Igor down the line or not.

[cycloneye]

Hey peeps,Julia is a little more stronger.

SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 26.7W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

[brunota2003]

Here's my $0.02 on Julia:

Current Intensity Analysis




UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 13 SEP 2010 Time : 171500 UTC
Lat : 15:05:27 N Lon : 26:28:26 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 / 995.2mb/ 53.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.4 3.4 3.4

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -37.4C Cloud Region Temp : -50.1C

Scene Type : SHEAR (0.04^ TO DG)

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[HURAKAN]

Julia is bursting!

[brunota2003]

At least she waited to try until after she cleared the islands!

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 12, 2010091318, , BEST, 0, 151N, 269W, 45, 1000, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

Up to 45kts.

[HURAKAN]

Looking better

[cyclonic chronic]

looking much better. dare i say hurricane julia tonite or tommrow a.m.? at least this track is pretty straight foreward, in the short-term at least.

[CrazyC83]

:uarrow:

looking much better. dare i say hurricane julia tonite or tommrow a.m.? at least this track is pretty straight foreward, in the short-term at least.

It would be a rare event if Julia started RI'ing east of 30W though...

[CrazyC83]

13/1800 UTC 15.2N 27.1W T3.0/3.0 JULIA -- Atlantic

Combined with the ADT estimate, I would go up to 50 kt at the advisory.

[HURAKAN]

Just before sunset

[HURAKAN]

Nice pic