ATL: PAULA - Models
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18Z GFS more bullish over the NW carribean sea..something to take note of...
H120
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120l.gif
H120
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120l.gif
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL : INVEST 98L - Models
Agree Vortex, at 192h.
![Image](http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_192l.gif)
![Image](http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_192l.gif)
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I have a feeling this system is going to be with us for some time and eventually will get its act together....
H168
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_168l.gif
H168
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_168l.gif
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Re: ATL : INVEST 98L - Models
cycloneye wrote:Agree Vortex, at 192h.
notice the increase in moisture across the se gulf...by the end of the week the dry air should mix out...also with ridging setting up shop over the SE it makes sense this becomes quasi-stationary across the NW carribean....we already know the heat potential down there...
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Re: ATL : INVEST 98L - Models
Keep in mind the longer this stays in the NW Caribbean, the better regarding a favorable and rather strong MJO pulse heading E. Just something to keep an eye on regarding operational output.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 98L - Models
Both GFDL & HWRF 18z back on the system but keep it weak.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2010101018-invest98l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2010101018-invest98l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2010101018-invest98l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2010101018-invest98l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL : INVEST 98L - Models
Hmmm, the models are waking up a little bit. Also SHIP goes up in intensity to 50kts.
![Image](http://img69.imageshack.us/img69/6339/storm98.gif)
Code: Select all
WHXX01 KWBC 110054
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0054 UTC MON OCT 11 2010
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982010) 20101011 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
101011 0000 101011 1200 101012 0000 101012 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.7N 81.1W 14.5N 82.3W 15.3N 83.8W 16.3N 85.2W
BAMD 13.7N 81.1W 14.6N 82.3W 15.7N 83.7W 16.8N 85.2W
BAMM 13.7N 81.1W 14.7N 82.3W 15.8N 83.7W 16.9N 85.0W
LBAR 13.7N 81.1W 14.6N 82.1W 15.7N 83.3W 16.9N 84.7W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 41KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 41KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
101013 0000 101014 0000 101015 0000 101016 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.1N 86.4W 17.6N 88.2W 15.9N 89.6W 14.0N 91.8W
BAMD 18.0N 86.5W 20.0N 88.5W 22.3N 87.2W 26.2N 80.2W
BAMM 17.9N 86.1W 18.6N 87.8W 17.9N 88.2W 17.1N 88.9W
LBAR 18.5N 85.9W 21.7N 85.4W 26.6N 79.4W 31.6N 64.9W
SHIP 50KTS 62KTS 61KTS 54KTS
DSHP 50KTS 50KTS 39KTS 28KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.7N LONCUR = 81.1W DIRCUR = 330DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 13.2N LONM12 = 80.7W DIRM12 = 346DEG SPDM12 = 2KT
LATM24 = 12.9N LONM24 = 80.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
![Image](http://img69.imageshack.us/img69/6339/storm98.gif)
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- DESTRUCTION5
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Re: ATL : INVEST 98L - Models
GFS develops this in 30 hrs now....New for the GFS lovers...Sitting in NW Caribbean for 1st 4 days...
Thru 6 days...lol...7th and 8th day his twin is born east of him....Zzzzzz
Then one eats the other and destroys FL in 10 days...Comedy hr..
![Image](http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_312l.gif)
Thru 6 days...lol...7th and 8th day his twin is born east of him....Zzzzzz
Then one eats the other and destroys FL in 10 days...Comedy hr..
![Image](http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_312l.gif)
Last edited by DESTRUCTION5 on Sun Oct 10, 2010 11:43 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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GATOR NATION IS E V E R Y W H E R E !
Re: ATL : INVEST 98L - Models
*FWIW* big 'cane hit S FL on 10/24 per 0Z gfs.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 98L - Models
GFS is back on this for a second run. Although I don't quite believe that it will sit in the NW Carribean 8+ days.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 98L - Models
This may get some more activity on this thread. 324hrs is out there but nothing else is going on.
![Image](http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_324l.gif)
![Image](http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_324l.gif)
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- gatorcane
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Re: ATL : INVEST 98L - Models
LarryWx wrote:*FWIW* big 'cane hit S FL on 10/24 per 0Z gfs.
Anniversary of wilma
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- SouthFloridawx
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Re: ATL : INVEST 98L - Models
LarryWx wrote:*FWIW* big 'cane hit S FL on 10/24 per 0Z gfs.
Hey, that's my Birthday!
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