ATL: PAULA - Models

[SouthDadeFish]

Even the NAM doesn't want to develop this anymore. Weird.

[SouthDadeFish]

GFS keeps it in the Carib though 144 hours as a weak low.

[SouthDadeFish]

Still in the NW Carib through 180 hours as what appears to be a tropical storm. Would be quite interesting to see what would happen if you left a tropical cyclone in the NW Carib for over a week.....

[Vortex]

18Z GFS more bullish over the NW carribean sea..something to take note of...

H120

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120l.gif

[cycloneye]

Agree Vortex, at 192h.

[Vortex]

I have a feeling this system is going to be with us for some time and eventually will get its act together....


H168


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_168l.gif

[Vortex]

GFS does an excellent job on spotting trends in the long term and if this continues into the 00z package interesting days are ahead...

[Vortex]

Agree Vortex, at 192h.

notice the increase in moisture across the se gulf...by the end of the week the dry air should mix out...also with ridging setting up shop over the SE it makes sense this becomes quasi-stationary across the NW carribean....we already know the heat potential down there...

[SouthDadeFish]

Yeah but then it weakens it and kicks out SE. I feel that it's being unrealistic.

[srainhoutx]

Keep in mind the longer this stays in the NW Caribbean, the better regarding a favorable and rather strong MJO pulse heading E. Just something to keep an eye on regarding operational output.

[gatorcane]

ut oh, GFS now really coming on board again......quite interesting.

[blp]

Both GFDL & HWRF 18z back on the system but keep it weak.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2010101018-invest98l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2010101018-invest98l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[cycloneye]

Hmmm, the models are waking up a little bit. Also SHIP goes up in intensity to 50kts.

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 110054
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0054 UTC MON OCT 11 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982010) 20101011 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        101011  0000   101011  1200   101012  0000   101012  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.7N  81.1W   14.5N  82.3W   15.3N  83.8W   16.3N  85.2W
BAMD    13.7N  81.1W   14.6N  82.3W   15.7N  83.7W   16.8N  85.2W
BAMM    13.7N  81.1W   14.7N  82.3W   15.8N  83.7W   16.9N  85.0W
LBAR    13.7N  81.1W   14.6N  82.1W   15.7N  83.3W   16.9N  84.7W
SHIP        25KTS          28KTS          33KTS          41KTS
DSHP        25KTS          28KTS          33KTS          41KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        101013  0000   101014  0000   101015  0000   101016  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    17.1N  86.4W   17.6N  88.2W   15.9N  89.6W   14.0N  91.8W
BAMD    18.0N  86.5W   20.0N  88.5W   22.3N  87.2W   26.2N  80.2W
BAMM    17.9N  86.1W   18.6N  87.8W   17.9N  88.2W   17.1N  88.9W
LBAR    18.5N  85.9W   21.7N  85.4W   26.6N  79.4W   31.6N  64.9W
SHIP        50KTS          62KTS          61KTS          54KTS
DSHP        50KTS          50KTS          39KTS          28KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  13.7N LONCUR =  81.1W DIRCUR = 330DEG SPDCUR =   3KT
LATM12 =  13.2N LONM12 =  80.7W DIRM12 = 346DEG SPDM12 =   2KT
LATM24 =  12.9N LONM24 =  80.6W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD =  180NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[DESTRUCTION5]

GFS develops this in 30 hrs now....New for the GFS lovers...Sitting in NW Caribbean for 1st 4 days...


Thru 6 days...lol...7th and 8th day his twin is born east of him....Zzzzzz

Then one eats the other and destroys FL in 10 days...Comedy hr..

[gatorcane]

Oh boy. Not sure if 98l has something to do with this.

[LarryWx]

*FWIW* big 'cane hit S FL on 10/24 per 0Z gfs.

[blp]

GFS is back on this for a second run. Although I don't quite believe that it will sit in the NW Carribean 8+ days.

[blp]

This may get some more activity on this thread. 324hrs is out there but nothing else is going on.

[gatorcane]

*FWIW* big 'cane hit S FL on 10/24 per 0Z gfs.

Anniversary of wilma

[SouthFloridawx]

*FWIW* big 'cane hit S FL on 10/24 per 0Z gfs.

Hey, that's my Birthday!