WPAC: CHABA - Severe Tropical Storm
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I see that now, JT has slowed the storm down as well. Well I guess your anime guru's will be rained out now too! Good news it looks like it should still stay to the E of the island, do not want to jump to and conclusions just yet though.
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION (16W)
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION (16W)
ecmwf forecasting a major typhoon possibly as a category 4 or 5 to pass very near okinawa.
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NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION (16W)
euro6208 wrote:ecmwf forecasting a major typhoon possibly as a category 4 or 5 to pass very near okinawa.
I'm not sure I would say that, but the ecmwf is showing sizable deeping by day 5-6. Typhoon seems very reasonable, but it is still early. Other models aren't as intense. Where did you get your data from? I was looking at http://www.weatheronline.co.nz
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION (16W)
on the ecmwf website. to my eyes, it looks like a major typhoon but it's still early. we will see...
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
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NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION (16W)
Well Pagasa finally jumped on board with the North Movement.
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Satellites, Charts and Forecasting tools for East Asia at WESTERNPACIFICWEATHER.COM
And, right on cue... TS 1014 CHABA:
WTPQ21 RJTD 241200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1014 CHABA (1014) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241200UTC 16.0N 131.7E FAIR
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 140NM
FORECAST
24HF 251200UTC 17.9N 130.1E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 261200UTC 19.4N 129.0E 110NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 271200UTC 21.4N 128.7E 160NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =
WTPQ21 RJTD 241200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1014 CHABA (1014) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241200UTC 16.0N 131.7E FAIR
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 140NM
FORECAST
24HF 251200UTC 17.9N 130.1E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 261200UTC 19.4N 129.0E 110NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 271200UTC 21.4N 128.7E 160NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =
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Re:
Chacor wrote:CHABA: Thailand. A tropical flower; genus hibiscus. Thai: ชบา
Google transliteration of Thai to English pronunciation: Chbā (silent first "a" in English).
Interesting. Melor, last year followed a very similar track...late season typhoon, name also meant flower. Don't think this will quite be a Category 5 super-typhoon though. Hopefully, Megi is the last monster we'll see hitting land this year.
So has the West Pac pulled ahead in ACE numbers yet?
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WTPN32 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 16W (CHABA) WARNING NR 013
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 15.7N 132.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7N 132.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 16.4N 131.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 17.3N 130.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 18.5N 129.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 19.5N 129.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 20.9N 129.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 22.8N 129.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 25.1N 129.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 15.9N 131.9E.
TROPICAL STORM 16W (CHABA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 690 NM SSE OF
KADENA_AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
241200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND
251500Z.//
WDPN32 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 16W WARNING NR 13//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (CHABA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 690 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS CONSOLIDATED
AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE SAME ANIMATION SHOWS
IMPROVED RADIAL OUTFLOW AFTER THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
TO THE NORTH THAT HAS BEEN RESTRICTING THE POLEWARD CHANNEL MOVED
FURTHER WESTWARD. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 241117 SSMI-S
MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH POOR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
AVERAGED BETWEEN PGTW AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 42 KNOTS,
RESPECTIVELY. TS 16W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE
THE PREVIOUS BULLETIN.
B. AN UPPER LEVEL, MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY TRACKING OVER
CHINA IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD CAUSING THE STEERING RIDGE TO
WEAKEN AND REORIENT. THIS WILL ALLOW TS 16W TO TURN NORTHWARD AROUND
TAU 24. CONSEQUENTLY, THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
WITH THE SYSTEM'S INITIAL EXPOSURE TO THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES,
FUELING STEADY INTENSIFICATION.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS CHABA IS EXPECTED TO VEER SLIGHTLY TO THE
RIGHT AS IT BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. TOWARDS THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR INCREASES DUE TO STRONG WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS SPREAD OUT
WITH GFS AND WBAR FAVORING AN EARLIER RECURVATURE. GFDN AND UKMO ARE
INITIALLY IN UNISON WITH THE PACK BEFORE THEY ABRUPTLY TRACK THE
CYCLONE WESTWARD AFTER TAU 36, PRESUMABLY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH - AN UNLIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS TIME. THIS TRACK
FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE BUT JUST TO THE RIGHT
OF CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE WESTWARD OUTLIERS.//
TXPN26 KNES 241504
SIMWIR
A. 16W (CHABA)
B. 24/1430Z
C. 16.3N
D. 131.4E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS... 5/10 WHITE BANDING FOR DT=3.0. MET=2.0 WITH PT=2.5.
FT BASED ON PT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...SALEMI
=
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 16W (CHABA) WARNING NR 013
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 15.7N 132.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7N 132.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 16.4N 131.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 17.3N 130.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 18.5N 129.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 19.5N 129.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 20.9N 129.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 22.8N 129.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 25.1N 129.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 15.9N 131.9E.
TROPICAL STORM 16W (CHABA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 690 NM SSE OF
KADENA_AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
241200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND
251500Z.//
WDPN32 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 16W WARNING NR 13//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (CHABA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 690 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS CONSOLIDATED
AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE SAME ANIMATION SHOWS
IMPROVED RADIAL OUTFLOW AFTER THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
TO THE NORTH THAT HAS BEEN RESTRICTING THE POLEWARD CHANNEL MOVED
FURTHER WESTWARD. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 241117 SSMI-S
MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH POOR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
AVERAGED BETWEEN PGTW AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 42 KNOTS,
RESPECTIVELY. TS 16W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE
THE PREVIOUS BULLETIN.
B. AN UPPER LEVEL, MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY TRACKING OVER
CHINA IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD CAUSING THE STEERING RIDGE TO
WEAKEN AND REORIENT. THIS WILL ALLOW TS 16W TO TURN NORTHWARD AROUND
TAU 24. CONSEQUENTLY, THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
WITH THE SYSTEM'S INITIAL EXPOSURE TO THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES,
FUELING STEADY INTENSIFICATION.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS CHABA IS EXPECTED TO VEER SLIGHTLY TO THE
RIGHT AS IT BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. TOWARDS THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR INCREASES DUE TO STRONG WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS SPREAD OUT
WITH GFS AND WBAR FAVORING AN EARLIER RECURVATURE. GFDN AND UKMO ARE
INITIALLY IN UNISON WITH THE PACK BEFORE THEY ABRUPTLY TRACK THE
CYCLONE WESTWARD AFTER TAU 36, PRESUMABLY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH - AN UNLIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS TIME. THIS TRACK
FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE BUT JUST TO THE RIGHT
OF CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE WESTWARD OUTLIERS.//
TXPN26 KNES 241504
SIMWIR
A. 16W (CHABA)
B. 24/1430Z
C. 16.3N
D. 131.4E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS... 5/10 WHITE BANDING FOR DT=3.0. MET=2.0 WITH PT=2.5.
FT BASED ON PT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...SALEMI
=
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- StormingB81
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5676
- Age: 42
- Joined: Thu Aug 27, 2009 1:45 am
- Location: Rockledge, Florida
WTPQ21 RJTD 242100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1014 CHABA (1014)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 242100UTC 16.8N 130.8E FAIR
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 140NM
FORECAST
24HF 252100UTC 18.8N 129.2E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 261800UTC 20.2N 128.9E 110NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 271800UTC 22.5N 129.0E 220NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =
WTPN32 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 16W (CHABA) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 16.8N 131.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8N 131.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 17.5N 130.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 18.4N 129.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 19.3N 129.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 20.2N 129.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 22.1N 129.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 23.9N 129.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 26.4N 130.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 17.0N 131.0E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (CHABA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 600 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON A 241713Z AMSRE 36H MICROWAVE IMAGE, WHICH
DEPICTS CURVED LOW LEVEL CONVECTIVE BANDING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS BASED ON PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS.
ALTHOUGH EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED, AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH IS PREVENTING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC AND IS HINDERING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TS 16W HAS
TURNED NORTHWESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LATITUDE, UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH RE-ORIENTING THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. A
241200Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS
DIGGING SOUTHWARD OVER NORTHEASTERN CHINA. THE STEERING RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO RE-ORIENT AND WEAKEN WITH THE PASSING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH, ALLOWING TS 16W TO TURN MORE POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS. AROUND TAU 96, TS CHABA IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD
AS IT ROUNDS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE
TROUGH SHOULD ALSO INCREASE, WHICH WILL SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION.
HOWEVER, AS THE SYSTEM TRACK BEGINS TO ROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS, INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-
LATITUDES AS WELL AS LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT SHOULD INITIALLY
WEAKEN TS 16W AS IT BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE TURN NORTHWARD
AND NORTHEASTWARD, EXCEPT FOR GFDN WHICH ERRONEOUSLY INTENSIFIES TS
16W AND TRACKS IT WESTWARD. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND TAU 72 TO 96. NOGAPS
TRACKS THE SYSTEM FURTHEST NORTHWARD AND TURNS THE SYSTEM JUST SOUTH
OF OKINAWA, JAPAN. ECMWF, GFS, EGRR, AND WBAR PULL TS CHABA
NORTHEASTWARD BELOW 24N DEGREES LATITUDE, INDICATING THE MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO INDUCE A RECURVATURE
SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO BASED ON
THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
241800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z, 250900Z, 251500Z AND
252100Z.//
TXPN26 KNES 242112
SIMWIR
A. 16W (CHABA)
B. 24/2030Z
C. 16.6N
D. 130.6E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T3.0/3.0/D1.5/12HRS
G. IR/EIR/AMSU
H. REMARKS...IN MI DATA LLC APPEARS ELONGATED TO NE AND POS
IS SOUTHWESTERN END OF ELONGATION. DT=3.5 BASED ON WHITE 6/10
BANDING. MET=2.5 ON RI CURVE. PAT=3.0 SO FT IS BASED ON PAT AND RI.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
24/1727Z 16.7N 130.5E AMSU
...SWANSON
=
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1014 CHABA (1014)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 242100UTC 16.8N 130.8E FAIR
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 140NM
FORECAST
24HF 252100UTC 18.8N 129.2E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 261800UTC 20.2N 128.9E 110NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 271800UTC 22.5N 129.0E 220NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =
WTPN32 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 16W (CHABA) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 16.8N 131.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8N 131.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 17.5N 130.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 18.4N 129.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 19.3N 129.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 20.2N 129.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 22.1N 129.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 23.9N 129.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 26.4N 130.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 17.0N 131.0E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (CHABA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 600 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON A 241713Z AMSRE 36H MICROWAVE IMAGE, WHICH
DEPICTS CURVED LOW LEVEL CONVECTIVE BANDING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS BASED ON PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS.
ALTHOUGH EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED, AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH IS PREVENTING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC AND IS HINDERING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TS 16W HAS
TURNED NORTHWESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LATITUDE, UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH RE-ORIENTING THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. A
241200Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS
DIGGING SOUTHWARD OVER NORTHEASTERN CHINA. THE STEERING RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO RE-ORIENT AND WEAKEN WITH THE PASSING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH, ALLOWING TS 16W TO TURN MORE POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS. AROUND TAU 96, TS CHABA IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD
AS IT ROUNDS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE
TROUGH SHOULD ALSO INCREASE, WHICH WILL SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION.
HOWEVER, AS THE SYSTEM TRACK BEGINS TO ROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS, INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-
LATITUDES AS WELL AS LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT SHOULD INITIALLY
WEAKEN TS 16W AS IT BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE TURN NORTHWARD
AND NORTHEASTWARD, EXCEPT FOR GFDN WHICH ERRONEOUSLY INTENSIFIES TS
16W AND TRACKS IT WESTWARD. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND TAU 72 TO 96. NOGAPS
TRACKS THE SYSTEM FURTHEST NORTHWARD AND TURNS THE SYSTEM JUST SOUTH
OF OKINAWA, JAPAN. ECMWF, GFS, EGRR, AND WBAR PULL TS CHABA
NORTHEASTWARD BELOW 24N DEGREES LATITUDE, INDICATING THE MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO INDUCE A RECURVATURE
SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO BASED ON
THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
241800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z, 250900Z, 251500Z AND
252100Z.//
TXPN26 KNES 242112
SIMWIR
A. 16W (CHABA)
B. 24/2030Z
C. 16.6N
D. 130.6E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T3.0/3.0/D1.5/12HRS
G. IR/EIR/AMSU
H. REMARKS...IN MI DATA LLC APPEARS ELONGATED TO NE AND POS
IS SOUTHWESTERN END OF ELONGATION. DT=3.5 BASED ON WHITE 6/10
BANDING. MET=2.5 ON RI CURVE. PAT=3.0 SO FT IS BASED ON PAT AND RI.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
24/1727Z 16.7N 130.5E AMSU
...SWANSON
=
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- StormingB81
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Re:
Chacor wrote:The last storm named Chaba was in 2004. JTWC carried it as a 155-knot super typhoon; JMA had it at 110 knots/910 hPa. Chaba was the strongest storm (pressure) in 2004. Made landfall in Japan.
2004 was not a good year for Japan, typhoon-wise.
Typhoon Conson
Super Typhoon Dianmu
Typhoon Namtheun
Typhoon Rananim
Typhoon Megi
Super Typhoon Chaba
Typhoon Aere
Typhoon Songda
Typhoon Meari
Super Typhoon Ma-On
Typhoon Tokage
Typhoon Nock-Ten
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