ATL : INVEST 92L - DISCUSSION

[Nimbus]

The shear has been stronger over the northern end of the wave so there was never any real chance for 92L to take root near the islands. This afternoon the latest convective burst has been developing further south of Haiti. Some moisture could still be pulled north over the island like it did yesterday over Puerto Rico, but at least it doesn't look like its going to be a devastating flood. I'm glad we are keeping the thread open, there is still a chance the southern end of the wave could develop early in the week.

[xironman]

It is like a car wreck where you can't help but look. On the southern side the one spot where there seems to some sort of action on the surface looks like here.

[ronjon]

I don't know if HPC is referring to this wave but something may still generate futher south toward the end of this week.

SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY/SOUTHEAST/GULF OF MEXICO...

THE MODELS STILL INDICATE A STRONG AND SPRAWLING ANTICYCLONE
STARTING ON DAY THREE. 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND 500 MB HEIGHTS
RANGE FROM 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...SO HOT
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE A SIGN OF ANY FEATURE TO DISLODGE THE SPRAWLING
ANTICYCLONE...WHICH SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE EVEN BEYOND DAY
SEVEN/SUN 27 JUN.

AT LOWER LATITUDES... PATTERN WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR PROGRESSION OF
ONE OR MORE TROPICAL WAVES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN/GULF OF MEXICO AND
POSSIBLY BRUSHING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA/KEYS IN THE PROCESS.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN/SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO/YUCATAN PENINSULA DAYS SIX-SEVEN
SAT 26 JUN TO SUN 27 JUN...AS SHOWN IN MOST OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS.

[ronjon]

12Z CMC not giving up on 92L.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2010062012&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[KWT]

Even the 12z CMC isn't actually developing 92L but something else a little further down the line. I think the chances for 92L is now pretty slim...

[srainhoutx]

NHC choosing to still discuss 92L...

ABNT20 KNHC 201737
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUN 20 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHWARD
INTO THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...WHICH COULD CAUSE FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO OVER PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO
...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...CUBA...AND JAMAICA AS THE WAVE
MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE REFER TO PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[brunota2003]

The reason why probably falls along the lines of it is convectively active, and still has the potential to kill (flash floods/mudslides, along with gusty winds).

[Rockin4NOLA]

Any chance that the wave behind 92L combines with whatever remnants of 92L are left? This is probably a silly question but I just wonder...

[LaBreeze]

Any chance that the wave behind 92L combines with whatever remnants of 92L are left? This is probably a silly question but I just wonder...

I was sort of wondering the same thing.

[tolakram]

I'm confused.

Floater is back, labeled 92L

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis-l.jpg

and now this:



ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUN 21 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL
WAVE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
WAVE COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN VENEZUELA...THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
NNNN

Looking art the latest MIMIC-TPW



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I have to think this will be a new invest rather than 92L since the energy from 92L seems to be well north and west of this area.

[HURAKAN]

93L is coming soon!