ATL: IGOR - Ex Hurricane - Discussion

[hurricaneCW]

Believe me Igor is following the NHC track pretty closely right now, and these little wobbles aren't that important right now. It would have to maintain this motion as others have said for another 12-18 hours for it to go totally off track.

As far as the size goes, it's a decently large sized hurricane right now and it's actually pretty large considering it hasn't undergone and EWRC yet. It will be interesting to see, intensity wise, that once it completes an EWRC that the storm will restrengthen to maybe a Cat 5 like Isabel did. It's certainly possible, the water temperatures are even warmer than they were with Isabel. The NHC estimates that the size will really expand further in the next few days. The size should of Igor should be a good deal bigger than with Earl.

As far as the east coast impacts, expect to see some nice swells and rip currents. It would be difficult for Bermuda to not have any impacts from Igor because of how large it will become. Even if Igor is 100 miles to the west or east of Bermuda, they are almost guaranteed to receive TS force winds and probably some good squalls.

[Aric Dunn]

Have a feeling 00z data is that off the EWRC that appears to be going on... plus the intense bands we had are much smaller and apppear some weaker? It looks like to me there may be some dry air working into the center? I still think that Microwave imagery shows some sort of eyewall replacement of some sort... the inner wall appears to me to erode and the outer one takes over? It may be my eyes playing tricks on me, but i'll look at more sat data to see what i can find out.

yeah the weakening is typical of a ERC. this process is not well understood but it can take hours to sometimes more than a day to complete. Since there is no reason this would weaken the only real conclusion is that its starting a ERC.

[plasticup]

IMO we need another 6-12 hours without a turn before talk of ridge-building and trough-missing becomes a reality. Igor is still within the cone.

This "within the cone" thing seems quite tricky to me. If you move the goal posts in between the direction of a kicked football, you will always score a field goal. How many times was this "cone" moved for EARL? Very convenient for forecasters.

If I recall, Earl never ventured outside of any of his three-day cones. By which I mean if the NHC made a prediction on Monday, Earl was still holding to it on Thursday. Igor will be the same way - the NHC rarely misses a big turn like this, but as the deadlines approach you can guarantee that storm2k will be all aflutter.

I'll be the first to eat crow if he dives down and misses the trough, but right now I'll take gixxer's bet any day of the week and twice on Sunday.

[hurricaneCW]

I think tonight could be the start of an EWRC, we're seeing the cloud tops continue to warm, the eye is still very much intact but I wouldn't be surprised to see it start to deteriorate somewhat.

[gixxer]

IMO we need another 6-12 hours without a turn before talk of ridge-building and trough-missing becomes a reality. Igor is still within the cone.

I'll be the first to eat crow if he dives down and misses the trough, but right now I'll take gixxer's bet any day of the week and twice on Sunday.

plastic, ive got access to a cessna 150 lets go recon this sucker

bet taken!lol

[gixxer]

is a storm experiancing an EWRC more or less susceptible to steering? or does it make no differance at all?

[cycloneye]

I have a question for those history of hurricanes gurus.Which hurricane lasted longer as a major hurricane? (Cat 3+) I ask because Igor may remain as a major cane for a few days.

[expat2carib]

IMO we need another 6-12 hours without a turn before talk of ridge-building and trough-missing becomes a reality. Igor is still within the cone.

This "within the cone" thing seems quite tricky to me. If you move the goal posts in between the direction of a kicked football, you will always score a field goal. How many times was this "cone" moved for EARL? Very convenient for forecasters.

If I recall, Earl never ventured outside of any of his three-day cones. By which I mean if the NHC made a prediction on Monday, Earl was still holding to it on Thursday. Igor will be the same way - the NHC rarely misses a big turn like this, but as the deadlines approach you can guarantee that storm2k will be all aflutter.

I'll be the first to eat crow if he dives down and misses the trough, but right now I'll take gixxer's bet any day of the week and twice on Sunday.

The NE Leewards were in the 5-day cone in the Wed. Aug. 25 5pm and 11pm advisories. They were then out of the cone for 2 advisories - Thu. Aug. 26 5am and 11am. By Thu. Aug. 26 5pm they were back in the cone and remained in the cone all the way up to impact.

[HURAKAN]

I have a question for those history of hurricanes gurus.Which hurricane lasted longer as a major hurricane? (Cat 3+) I ask because Igor may remain as a major cane for a few days.

Hurricane Donna, 1960

"Hurricane Donna holds the record for retaining major hurricane status (Category 3 or greater on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale) in the Atlantic Basin for the longest period of time. For nine days, September 2 to September 11, Donna consistently had maximum sustained winds of at least 115 mph (185 km/h)."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Donna

[Aric Dunn]

is a storm experiancing an EWRC more or less susceptible to steering? or does it make no differance at all?

well I guess you could argue that since during a ERC the pressure gradient expands and that could affect the low to mid level steering. but I dont see how it would affect the upper level steering. we actually dont know very much about the process of a ERC let alone what effect it might have on its motion. I can say that i have never seen anything that would suggest it would make a difference.

[maxx9512]

Something I found amazing today about Igor. Today the cloud tops were about -117F and water temps underneath
are in the 80's. So the temp. difference between the bottom and top of Igor was roughly 200 degrees. Now that is a big spread! I never thought to look at that before and found it unreal.

[Hurricanehink]

I have a question for those history of hurricanes gurus.Which hurricane lasted longer as a major hurricane? (Cat 3+) I ask because Igor may remain as a major cane for a few days.

I'm pretty sure Ivan 04 was a major hurricane for the most amount of time, for 10 total days (9 consecutive). Donna 60 also lasted 9 days consecutively.

The 1893 Sea Islands hurricane was a major for 11 total days, but that's before satellite/recon, so not 100% reliable. Same with the 1899 San Ciriaco hurricane (the longest-lasting Atlantic hurricane in history).

Igor has been a major for a day, and is projected to maintain major status for at least five more days. By that point, it will be on a weakening trend, so it might run into some difficulty.

[cycloneye]

I have a question for those history of hurricanes gurus.Which hurricane lasted longer as a major hurricane? (Cat 3+) I ask because Igor may remain as a major cane for a few days.

Hurricane Donna, 1960

"Hurricane Donna holds the record for retaining major hurricane status (Category 3 or greater on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale) in the Atlantic Basin for the longest period of time. For nine days, September 2 to September 11, Donna consistently had maximum sustained winds of at least 115 mph (185 km/h)."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Donna

Interesting that Donna caused almost 200 deaths here in Puerto Rico because of massive floodings. Thank you for the information. Lets see how many days Igor remains as a major.

[plasticup]

If I recall, Earl never ventured outside of any of his three-day cones. By which I mean if the NHC made a prediction on Monday, Earl was still holding to it on Thursday. Igor will be the same way - the NHC rarely misses a big turn like this, but as the deadlines approach you can guarantee that storm2k will be all aflutter.

I'll be the first to eat crow if he dives down and misses the trough, but right now I'll take gixxer's bet any day of the week and twice on Sunday.

The NE Leewards were in the 5-day cone in the Wed. Aug. 25 5pm and 11pm advisories. They were then out of the cone for 2 advisories - Thu. Aug. 26 5am and 11am. By Thu. Aug. 26 5pm they were back in the cone and remained in the cone all the way up to impact.

Exactly. Earl reached the islands on August 30th, and they were within his cone for 4 full days before he reached them.

[hurricaneCW]

Donna was an amazing hurricane, can you imagine something like Donna occurring today? Anyway I don't think Igor will be breaking any records but he will be pumping that ACE up big time. We could get a total of over 100 units with Igor, total meaning all of the ACE units combined so far.

[Gustywind]

[hurricaneCW]

That satellite picture above looks like the storm extends over a 1,000 miles from the inflow clouds to the south to the outflow clouds to the north, very impressive despite the warming cloud tops.

[Windtalker1]

I'm going out on a limb and saying I do not see Igor crossing over 20N until it gets past 60. JMO.

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[Raebie]

That's quite a limb.

[wx247]

While you can't deny the mainly west motion today, it won't take much a WNW pitch to keep Igor in line with the latest NHC track.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-avn.html

As always... just my $.04.