ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[Ptarmigan]

I know it is 5 days off and is subjective to change. I notice the 5 day cone has Earl over New York City area. If Earl was still a major hurricane and hit the New York area it would be really catastrophic!

[Danny MD]

With the update to the cone being eastward this morning, is it safe to rule out a OBX/Mid atlantic landfall from earl?

Or is it possible the cone could re shift west just like it did to the islands over the past few days, and those in NC/Mid atlantic could be taken for surprise and be affected by this.

I have extra interest in this because I'm from Washington DC area.

Responses appreciated, thank you!

[canes04]

everyone on the EC needs watch this one closely.
If I recall PR and the Islands were not even in the 3 to 5 day cone and now there under warnings.

That trough in the Midwest looks weak to me.

[lester]

With the update to the cone being eastward this morning, is it safe to rule out a OBX/Mid atlantic landfall from earl?

Or is it possible the cone could re shift west just like it did to the islands over the past few days, and those in NC/Mid atlantic could be taken for surprise and be affected by this.

I have extra interest in this because I'm from Washington DC area.

Responses appreciated, thank you!

Still too early to rule out a mid-atlantic hit, and the cone could shift back west in future advisories

[tailgater]

What a huge difference in the steering currents for Earl depending on strength.
400 to 850 mb

300 to 850 mb

[Ptarmigan]

With the update to the cone being eastward this morning, is it safe to rule out a OBX/Mid atlantic landfall from earl?

Or is it possible the cone could re shift west just like it did to the islands over the past few days, and those in NC/Mid atlantic could be taken for surprise and be affected by this.

I have extra interest in this because I'm from Washington DC area.

Responses appreciated, thank you!

Still too early to rule out a mid-atlantic hit, and the cone could shift back west in future advisories

Very true. 5 days is meaningless. 3 days would give us a better idea.

[HURAKAN]

loop

[x-y-no]

With the update to the cone being eastward this morning, is it safe to rule out a OBX/Mid atlantic landfall from earl?

Or is it possible the cone could re shift west just like it did to the islands over the past few days, and those in NC/Mid atlantic could be taken for surprise and be affected by this.

I have extra interest in this because I'm from Washington DC area.

Responses appreciated, thank you!

Given that the coast from North Carolina to Cape Cod is in the 5-day cone, it's safe to say that whole area needs to monitor closely and make sure they have a plan in case it comes their way.

[jinftl]

Living in south florida, we are very accustomed to being in several 5-day cones each season just because of basic geography...most storms that would threaten the Gulf or the East Coast (at least the ones that develop outside of the Gulf!) have to at least pass in the general direction of florida if they are going to turn up the coast off to our east or head to our south into the Gulf.

The 250-mile average margin of error 5-days means we are in alot more 5-day cones than storms that actually hit us. So if it is any comfort to the folks to our north who are in the 5-day cone right now, that is not the same as forecasting that a direct strike is immiment.

To that end, the latest NHC wind probabilities are much less threatening than the accompanying visual of seeing your area in the 5-day cone. Right now, the NHC puts the probability of sustained winds of 58 mph and 74 mph in NYC at 0% for the forecast period shown in the current 5-day cone. The probability of sustained winds of 39 mph (not unheard of in NYC the remainder of the year) is 12%. As we move into the week, the trend of these percentages will be key.

Sunday, 8/29, 11am

NANTUCKET 34KT 14%
NANTUCKET 50KT 3%
NANTUCKET 64KT 1%

NEW YORK CITY 34KT 12%
NEW YORK CITY 50KT 0%
NEW YORK CITY 64KT 0%

ATLANTIC CITY 34KT 14%
ATLANTIC CITY 50KT 4%
ATLANTIC CITY 64KT 1%

OCEAN CITY, MD 34KT 17%
OCEAN CITY, MD 50KT 6%
OCEAN CITY, MD 64KT 3%

CAPE HATTERAS 34KT 25%
CAPE HATTERAS 50KT 11%
CAPE HATTERAS 64KT 6%

WILMINGTON, NC 34KT 11%
WILMINGTON, NC 50KT 3%
WILMINGTON, NC 64KT 1%

I know it is 5 days off and is subjective to change. I notice the 5 day cone has Earl over New York City area. If Earl was still a major hurricane and hit the New York area it would be really catastrophic!

[ROCK]

[quote="Ptarmigan"]I know it is 5 days off and is subjective to change. I notice the 5 day cone has Earl over New York City area. If Earl was still a major hurricane and hit the New York area it would be really catastrophic!

that would be one of those "day after tomorrow" scenerios.....a flooded NYC...not good....


as soon as this cone hits the media, let the hype begin.....I guarentee you JB will be all over the news networks....

[Danny MD]

Thanks everyone!

[Ptarmigan]

that would be one of those "day after tomorrow" scenerios.....a flooded NYC...not good....


as soon as this cone hits the media, let the hype begin.....I guarentee you JB will be all over the news networks....

It would be. Also, hurricanes move faster passed the Carolinas. Most media is based in New York, so there will be a lot of hype for sure.

[Aric Dunn]

the mid west trough is not whats going to start turning this wnw then NW ... It is supposedly the upper trough north of CUBA (its very weak). after that it would be far enough north that when the trough that is supposed to swing through the great lakes would pick it up and turn it north then ne out to sea.

The questions is... will the upper trough be strong enough to turn it as much as is forecast. The upper trough will be fighting with the low to midlevel ridge currently building over earl which one wins out still remains to be seen. but since it still has not begun to turn ( more than 2 days after it was supposed to have started to turn) I would still bet on more shifts west in the forecast track. only time will tell and for me to jump on this sharp recurve it needs to start moving at least wnw in the next 6 to 12 hours or hispanola will be in the cone.. lol

[Deputy Van Halen]

I know it is 5 days off and is subjective to change. I notice the 5 day cone has Earl over New York City area. If Earl was still a major hurricane and hit the New York area it would be really catastrophic!

It could be near-catastrophic even without a hit at all. Imagine panicked mass evacuations from metro NYC as the storm approaches.

[Ivanhater]

the mid west trough is not whats going to start turning this wnw then NW ... It is supposedly the upper trough north of CUBA (its very weak). after that it would be far enough north that when the trough that is supposed to swing through the great lakes would pick it up and turn it north then ne out to sea.

The questions is... will the upper trough be strong enough to turn it as much as is forecast. The upper trough will be fighting with the low to midlevel ridge currently building over earl which one wins out still remains to be seen. but since it still has not begun to turn ( more than 2 days after it was supposed to have started to turn) I would still bet on more shifts west in the forecast track. only time will tell and for me to jump on this sharp recurve it needs to start moving at least wnw in the next 6 to 12 hours or hispanola will be in the cone.. lol

The models have been trying to turn Earl since he left Africa, guess what those same models are trying to do with Fiona?

[Aric Dunn]

the eye shows up clearly on the last frame in this loop... still heading basically west ....

[emeraldislencguy]

how much of a west adjustment do you think

[AdamFirst]

All these posters preaching a major westward shift...and it hasn't happened yet...perhaps the NHC knows something you don't.

[emeraldislencguy]

just know the temps are suppose to be in the low 90's today and monday
feels very tropical outside

[Aric Dunn]

All these posters preaching a major westward shift...and it hasn't happened yet...perhaps the NHC knows something you don't.

hasn't happened yet... its been shifting west every advisory...since it formed... lol