ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

[ROCK]

[

Rock you should look back at prior posts in this, and other; threads before you leap to STS's defense

not leaping...I see a new guy needing guidance...thats all.....

[Wx_Warrior]

STS was in the infant stages then...I think...who knows....i hope nothing ever comes my way again.

[fasterdisaster]

It's simply ignorance at this point to think Gaston won't redevelop. Its satellite presentation has improved consistently over the last 12 hours and is continuing to improve. It's right on the edge of a pocket of moist air and shear is lessening dramatically.

[Florida1118]

Please can we stop talking about STS? How would anyone like it if you came back to a thread and find nearly a page about what you did/didnt say? Im willing to bet a mod or Admins are gonna come wide out our posts...So lets not create anymore posts that will just be deleted.
Perhaps We all (including me) should read this again-http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=106959

[fasterdisaster]

Please can we stop talking about STS? How would anyone like it if you came back to a thread and find nearly a page about what you did/didnt say? Im willing to bet a mod or Admins gonna come wide out our post...So lets not create anymore post that will just be deleted.

I agree, this is getting ridiculous.

[Wx_Warrior]

Ignorance that one would think that Gaston won't develop? WOW

[fasterdisaster]

Ignorance that one would think that Gaston won't develop? WOW

Ignorance of the facts, yes.

[Florida1118]

Ignorance that one would think that Gaston won't develop? WOW

Eh. As of this moment most of the models dont see Gaston at all. And weve seen 70-80% systems crash and burn. I dont think its ignorance. I think as of now its guessing. to me Ignorance would be a cat. 5 sitting off your coast and saying it will not hit you. Not to the same degree of Ignorance, but still.

[fasterdisaster]

Ignorance that one would think that Gaston won't develop? WOW

Eh. As of this moment most of the models dont see Gaston at all. And weve seen 70-80% systems crash and burn. I dont think its ignorance. I think as of now its guessing.

The models that don't develop him are the global models that probably are barely detecting Gaston's circulation. Ignorance might have been too loaded a word, but I do think there's far more observational and factual evidence supporting redevelopment than otherwise.

[CajunMama]

Geezum...step away from the computer and go to bed. Enough is enough.

[Florida1118]

Again I dont see this at 5am either so we wait for 11am.... In unrelated news, Unofficial Hermine has been born for ya'll who havent been to TD 10 disscussion

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[fci]

Rock you should look back at prior posts in this, and other; threads before you leap to STS's defense[/quote]

not leaping...I see a new guy needing guidance...thats all.....[/quote]

That's fair.

[fci]

Ignorance that one would think that Gaston won't develop? WOW

Eh. As of this moment most of the models dont see Gaston at all. And weve seen 70-80% systems crash and burn. I dont think its ignorance. I think as of now its guessing.

The models that don't develop him are the global models that probably are barely detecting Gaston's circulation. Ignorance might have been too loaded a word, but I do think there's far more observational and factual evidence supporting redevelopment than otherwise.

Thanks for stepping away from the "ignorance" label. It has been like 3 days now that the odds have been 60%-80% and still nothing yet.

[fasterdisaster]

Thanks for stepping away from the "ignorance" label. It has been like 3 days now that the odds have been 60%-80% and still nothing yet.

Yeah, sorry about that.

[Shuriken]

IMO Gaston should have (1) never been named a TS in the first place, and then after that, (2) never been downgraded to below TD status -- as it's always maintained an intact, circularly LLC and never been completely free of convection for more than a few hours.

[Migle]

Well, it has been holding it's convection and now he has some near the center. It should be a Tropical Depression at 11.

[USTropics]

convection has weakened over the last 2 hours, unless it begins to refire and sustain I see no reason to upgrade to TD. Dry air is noted surrounding the system (as has been the case throughout much of this system's history), although it appears to be on the decrease as it moves westward.

shortwave infrared with vort/dry air overlay:

[Steve]

>>Please can we stop talking about STS?

Mods put in a feature called the friends and foe list. If you think a poster isn't worth reading or is wasting your time having to skim over their posts, I'd recommend you use it. It comes in pretty handy for the ADHD posters who would be better served to be on some local weather station forum or something. Trust me, you only read their stuff if you want to click on it. :9:

[ColinDelia]

SHIPS still hasn't backed off. In fact, the 6z SHIPS/ LGEM is in love with Gaston.
SHIPS goes to 115 knots in 24 hours. LGEM goes a step further to 135 knots in 120 hours.
6z GFS still turns it into an open wave.

What a big difference between the statistical intensity forecasts and the global models.

SHIPS likes it because of the SST potential, Ocean Heat Content and shear. Over the next 5 days SHIPS has Gaston gain 85 knots in max wind speed. 39 of that comes from SST potential and 10 from Ocean Heat Content. 29 knots of the gain comes from the shear speed and direction. There are a number of smaller positive and negative factors after that. SHIPS assumes less than 10 knots of shear the rest of the way after 18 hours. We'll see.

Not 100% sure why the GFS doesn't like Gaston but I believe it is because of the upper air environment.
The GFS keeps Gaston at the Southern edge of the upper level high that is moving west with Gaston; Gaston
never gets under the high. Contrast that with the GFS runs from a few days ago when Gaston moved NW,
got under the high and became a Hurricane in the Bahamas. What about the ULL? According to the GFS, the ULL that is headed westward will be over over western Cuba at 60 hours and not far from there over the Yucutan Channel at 84 hours. At 84 hours, SHIPS (through OFCI) has Gaston at 16.9N, 72.0W - South of Haiti. So looks like the ULL has no negative impact - if anything, a positive one being in an ideal position NW of Gaston. At 90 hours the ULL looks weaker and has moved west.

[wzrgirl1]

Does someone have a recent satellite loop of Gaston? Curious as to what he did overnight. Thanks!