ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

:uarrow:

Looks good but winds don't support a tropical cyclone

Is that wind speed or direction? Tropical Cyclones don't have a minimum wind speed criteria. If it is 39mph or greater, it is a TS. Anything less is a TD....and still a TC if is has a closed circulation and sustained deep convection.

Link : http://sailwx.info/wxobs/windspeed.phtml

strongest winds inland are 15 mph

[Stormcenter]

The circulation formerly know as TD5 is pretty much stationary right off the SE LA. coastline.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=12

[Steve]

Big yellow-radar style band moving thruogh downtown right now. I don't think TD #5's remnant center can entrain all of the wrap in moisture to it's east and southeast, but it's bringing some of that energy in as per HURRIKAN's sat link above. If some of this blows up this afternoon and evening or if it dies off and comes back to life overnight over the water, looks like Mississippi could get soaked. In the words of Jimi, "Rainy day, rain all day. No use gettin' uptight, just let it grove it's own way."

[poof121]

The circulation formerly know as TD5 is pretty much stationary right off the SE LA. coastline.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=12

Zoom in South of Biloxi and east of New Orleans, you'll see the circulation heading off to the NE.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=LIX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

[ronjon]

Looks to be a very wet 5 days for the northern gulf coast from the remnants of TD 5.

[Yat]

There's been a steady light rain all day and a little bit of thunder every once in a while, the backyard has a spot or two where water is pooling up, and every once in a while I see a small bit of movement on the trees. The pumps seem to be keeping ahead of the rain because the water in the canals are low. TS Bonnie and now ex TD5 have been pretty much direct hits here. I hope this isn't a trend this season.

[Stormcenter]

I'm not sure about that but hey who knows with these things.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=12

The circulation formerly know as TD5 is pretty much stationary right off the SE LA. coastline.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=12

Zoom in South of Biloxi and east of New Orleans, you'll see the circulation heading off to the NE.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=LIX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

[rockyman]

A quick look at the low level steering currents shows why this system is "stuck"...it's in between competing high pressures...one pushing the system to the southwest and the other to the northeast:

[Dean4Storms]

12z Euro is in line with the GFS sending this back in the Gulf

I agree, don't think we've seen the last of the energy that produced TD5!!

[poof121]

12z Euro is in line with the GFS sending this back in the Gulf

I agree, don't think we've seen the last of the energy that produced TD5!!

CMC too...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2010081212&field=850mb+Vorticity&hour=Animation

[tolakram]

IMO there is a potential for a lot of damage from these rains, some of the rainfall totals down there are getting extreme.

[shell70]

Nice little shower with awesome clouds and a little bit of lightening this morning when I took my grandmother to the ear doctor. The rest of the day has been just cloudy. It looks like there could be some rain on its way tonight and tomorrow for my area.

[chzzdekr81]

126 hour GFS:

[srainhoutx]

12Z Euro



12Z UKMET

[Ivanhater]

Canadian



Euro

[srainhoutx]

HPC:

THE GULF COASTAL REGION SHOULD REMAIN WET THIS ENTIRE PERIOD WITH
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN PLACE AND POSSIBLE INTERACTION
FROM THE MID LEVEL REMAINS OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS WITH THE GFS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND
PERSISTENT DEVELOPING STRONGER SFC LOW PRESSURE. WHETHER THIS IS
REAL OR A FEEDBACK PROBLEM REMAINS TO BE SEEN. EXPECT THE LATTER
AS THIS NEW VERSION OF GFS HAS SHOWN POSSIBLE HYPERSENSITIVITY TO
CYCLOGENESIS OVER SUBTROPICAL MARINE REGIONS. THUS HAVE KEPT IN A
BROAD TROF AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THIS REGION WITH AMBIENT
HIGH PWS.

[N2Storms]

[quote="Dean4Storms"][quote="Ivanhater"]12z Euro is in line with the GFS sending this back in the Gulf
[/quote]


I agree, don't think we've seen the last of the energy that produced TD5!![/quote]


Evidently the Tallahasse NWS isn't buying into the "loop da loop" scenario. They are more of the opinion that the remnant low will be absorbed in the front that will be pushing down in the next few days.

We have sure gotten some pretty potent downpours today...had two this morning and two this afternoon followed by sporadic sunshine but mostly overcast...a nice heat buster though, that's for sure.

[KWT]

Looks to me like its the energy from TD5 that comes back down, or at least serves to get things going, probably wouldn't have time to do anything unless it gets further south than expected.

[Ivanhater]

HPC

HPC Discussion

THE GULF COASTAL REGION SHOULD REMAIN WET THIS ENTIRE PERIOD WITH
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN PLACE AND POSSIBLE INTERACTION
FROM THE MID LEVEL REMAINS OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS WITH THE GFS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND
PERSISTENT DEVELOPING STRONGER SFC LOW PRESSURE. WHETHER THIS IS
REAL OR A FEEDBACK PROBLEM REMAINS TO BE SEEN. EXPECT THE LATTER
AS THIS NEW VERSION OF GFS HAS SHOWN POSSIBLE HYPERSENSITIVITY TO
CYCLOGENESIS OVER SUBTROPICAL MARINE REGIONS. THUS HAVE KEPT IN A
BROAD TROF AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THIS REGION WITH AMBIENT
HIGH PWS.


...REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NUMBER FIVE...

PREFERENCE: NAM OR ECMWF

THE NAM...UKMET...AND ECMWF HANDLE THE TRACK OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION COMPARABLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...SENDING IT ON A TIGHT
ANTICYCLONIC LOOP INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY THE END OF DAY 3.
THE GFS STALLS IT IN THE LOOP OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA DAY 3...SO
WILL CONSIDER IT A LOWER PROBABILITY OUTLIER. THE GEM GLOBAL
PULLS THE CIRCULATION INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA BY THE START OF DAY
3...SO WILL RULE IT AN OUTLIER AS WELL.

[Hurricane]

If this formed would it be named TD 5 again?