ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

[WeatherGuesser]

Take your pick: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float3.html

[HUC]

nOT TOO BAD FOR ME [img]http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/vis-l.jpg[/img]

[Thunder44]

It's been really struggling in the dry air environment the past several days. NHC will probably wait 12-24hrs for convection persist around the center or before upgrading Gaston again.

[wzrgirl1]

Take your pick: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float3.html

Thank you WeatherGuesser!!

[wzrgirl1]

Trying to understand what I am seeing. Looks as if dry air is moving in tandem with the LLC. Am I seeing this correctly??

[scotto]

70% at the 8am TWO.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

[bvigal]

Trying to understand what I am seeing. Looks as if dry air is moving in tandem with the LLC. Am I seeing this correctly??

wzrgirl1, you can get a really good look at the dry air progression and the 'choking' effect on ex-Gaston via PW-loop product at http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/tpw2/natl/main.html

[otowntiger]

As usual ex-Gaston is looking quite underwhelming despite all the talk of his potential, I don't see it regenerating. Too much dry air, stability and disruption from ULL.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track

AL, 09, 2010090612, , BEST, 0, 174N, 555W, 30, 1008, LO

[KWT]

Just seems to be stuck in the same set-up where the circulation is obvious yet convection just can't hold for long enough for this one to develop...

As I said before its like 93L in the E.Atlantic in Early August, just can't seem to keep convection long enough to justify an upgrade...and I see no real reason for that to change until it transfers NW maybe in the Gulf.

Still bet this one develops down the line though but may need to wait till its in the W.Caribbean now...

[Dean4Storms]

Still nothing and will remain nothing, has no model support. The GFDL and HWRF have been terrible with development and strength of systems this year, they've had this a hurricane all weekend. There is not ONE global model supporting any kind of development and the combination of very dry air and shear is evident.

[lonelymike]

Dunno KWT Looks like the dynamical models wanna run it straight into the Yucatan. If it gets in the Gulf I'm guessing a WGOM threat? You agree or disagree?

[KWT]

Yeah Dean the models have all backed off from it and clearly the set-up aloft isn't favourable for development right now, its only enough to keep the circulation going for now.

[boca]

Gaston looks like it has a wave like configuration to it now.Its eleongated north to south and no longer has that weak circulation to it.I think the 30% will win out.I think when the NHC updates at 2pm they'll drop the percentage of development to 30 or 40% if that.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/flash-avn.html

[cycloneye]

Exposed!

[KWT]

Just can't get enough instablity to get the convection going...probably not going to develop for a long time if it does at all now.

Still needs close watching in the W.Caribbean...

[Migle]

Gaston does it again. This thing is to confusing and has to many ups and downs. I want to think it re-develops, bit I am starting to have doubts.

[jconsor]

Look at the visible loop - the closed circulation is obvious. Also, it's elongated east-west, not north-south.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/flash-vis.html

Gaston looks like it has a wave like configuration to it now.Its eleongated north to south and no longer has that weak circulation to it.I think the 30% will win out.I think when the NHC updates at 2pm they'll drop the percentage of development to 30 or 40% if that.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/flash-avn.html

[KWT]

Could yet redevelop but I just can't see it, esp given the models are now pretty much in total agreement that its not going to form.

[USTropics]

Appears to me that every time it begins to build convection, the spin tightens up, and when it tries to increase in radius large amounts of dry air are being caught in the vertical draft, killing off the convection. If the SHIPS model is correct and shear remains low (and there is no land interaction), I don't see why this can't develop in the Caribbean, where dry air is significantly less.