ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[KWT]

If recon finds a closed low then I think there is no doubt they would upgrade pretty much there. I'd suspect in that case we probably would get Alex before any landfall but we shall see what happens. Steering currents still look very slack as well FWIW but does seem like its lifting out a little.

[Raininfyr]

Seems like 93L is heading for land soon! I don't see anything that would begin to pull it northwest any time in the near future. Am I reading right?

[Hurricane Andrew]

I think if Recon gets out there and finds a CL, then TD by 5PM EDT

If not, then 11AM EDT tommorow.

I think we will have TS by tommorow 8PM EDT

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[eastcoastFL]

If this thing does get its stuff together where do the models have it going? Is it a US threat? and if so where?

[ronjon]

93L is really consolidating now - could be a TD by the time RECON arrives. Need it for an accurate fix on the center as it may still be elongated. One thing I noticed reviewing the water vapor is an ULL now located in the central gulf. Not sure how much of an influence this will have on shear and track down the road. These pesky ULLs seem to sometimes create havoc on intensity and track forecasts.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[txagwxman]

Seems like 93L is heading for land soon! I don't see anything that would begin to pull it northwest any time in the near future. Am I reading right?

Should skirt across Nic/Honduras...into Belize/Yucatan tomorrow.

[cwachal]

well if they find a CL right after getting there we will have a special advisory issued around 2:30 - 3:00 today indicating a TD has formed

[HURAKAN]

For those keeping track, this is the 21st invest day!!

[Ntxwx]

I think if Recon gets out there and finds a CL, then TD by 5PM EDT

If not, then 11AM EDT tommorow.

I think we will have TS by tommorow 8PM EDT

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

8PM ?

[Hurricane Andrew]

I think if Recon gets out there and finds a CL, then TD by 5PM EDT

If not, then 11AM EDT tommorow.

I think we will have TS by tommorow 8PM EDT

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

8PM ?

Yeah. The advisories go...5AM...8AM....11AM....2PM....5PM....8PM...11PM...2AM..Oh wait. that's when systems are making landfall. NVM. 11PM

[N2Storms]

[quote="eastcoastFL"]If this thing does get its stuff together where do the models have it going? Is it a US threat? and if so where?[/quote]



The general consensus right now seems to be in line w / the Global Models which take the disturbance/TD/TS into the Yucutan Peninsula and then eventually back into the Southern GOMEX and then a landfalling Tropical System somewhere near the Texas/Mexico border...consider me also in that camp but I would not be surprised at all to see it actually go a little farther north maybe as far north as Houston/Galveston...

[tailgater]

Looking at the first Visible loop this morning, it doesn't look well organized yet but you can see things seem to be well on the way to becoming our first TD of 2019.

Yeah, I think that by 2019 it could be a tropical depression!!! lol

That was a typo, but it feels right.

[Ntxwx]

I think if Recon gets out there and finds a CL, then TD by 5PM EDT

If not, then 11AM EDT tommorow.

I think we will have TS by tommorow 8PM EDT

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

8PM ?

Yeah. The advisories go...5AM...8AM....11AM....2PM....5PM....8PM...11PM...2AM..Oh wait. that's when systems are making landfall. NVM. 11PM

So your saying TOMORROW 11:00pm? For Tropical Storm Status.

[HurrMark]

At this point it looks like an Old Mexico storm...looks like the trough moving in early next week should miss the system. This should also help keep the system over land for much of the next few days...keeping its intensity in check. If this pans out, this will be great news for the Gulf Coast.

Of course, the media will hype this up big time, even if the storm doesn't pass within 500 miles of the oil...they are already starting, even without this being a depression.

[Hurricane Andrew]

I think if recon finds a closed low, they will go to TD at 2/5PM. Ten they will recon Again tommorow and if they find it stronger, TS by 5/11PM. Now do you understarnd?

[srainhoutx]

[Ntxwx]

I think if recon finds a closed low, they will go to TD at 2/5PM. Ten they will recon Again tommorow and if they find it stronger, TS by 5/11PM. Now do you understarnd?

Dude I definatly always understood. Just making sure that you were saying TS status by tommorow 11pm.

[eastcoastFL]

At this point it looks like an Old Mexico storm...looks like the trough moving in early next week should miss the system. This should also help keep the system over land for much of the next few days...keeping its intensity in check. If this pans out, this will be great news for the Gulf Coast.

Of course, the media will hype this up big time, even if the storm doesn't pass within 500 miles of the oil...they are already starting, even without this being a depression.

Darn, was looking for a little ts in florida this weekend.

[Bocadude85]

I think if Recon gets out there and finds a CL, then TD by 5PM EDT

If not, then 11AM EDT tommorow.

I think we will have TS by tommorow 8PM EDT

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

8PM ?

Yeah. The advisories go...5AM...8AM....11AM....2PM....5PM....8PM...11PM...2AM..Oh wait. that's when systems are making landfall. NVM. 11PM

They only have intermediate advisories when watches or warnings are posted for the coastline.

[wx247]

Well, this will definitely be interesting to see how the advisories are issued (assuming we get a TD this afternoon) with the new guidelines. I don't think that the changes have been publicized too well. The media should definitely latch onto this thing once we get recon in there, too. As always, just my $.04...