ATL: Remnants of PAULA - Discussion

[cycloneye]

TS Watch for Keys.

[Evil Jeremy]

GIVEN THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY...A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA KEYS.

You called it Crazy.

[NDG]

Currently I don't see windshear to be affecting it that bad, Cancun sounding showed 17knot winds at H200 & less than 10 knots between H300 & H250.
Once it gains more latitude later today then is another ball game but if it gains enough speed as it moves ENE then windshear may not affected as bad.
IMO I think it will track closer to the FL keys than indicated by the global models which have no idea on the real strength of the system, very close to the GFDL & BAMM models.

[Sanibel]

Trend continued north to a north coast of Cuba skimmer. Black burst in channel.


Odd approach for Havana from the WNW!

[jinftl]

Excerpt from NHC Discussion at 11am:

WE ARE CONFIDENT THAT THE TURN WILL OCCUR SOON...BUT LESS CONFIDENT IN HOW
SHARP IT WILL BE. SOME RELIABLE MODELS MOVE THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE
EAST ACROSS CUBA AND OTHERS SHOW A MORE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A SHARP TURN TO THE EAST OVER OR
VERY NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA UNTIL DISSIPATION IN FOUR
DAYS...OR EARLIER.

[Sanibel]

Front mostly sliding east on WV, but still some very slight plunging evident:


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html

[JPmia]

http://weather.cod.edu/loops/KeyWest-VIS.loop.html

looks like it is already moving a little to the east of the north on this visible loop

[Sanibel]

Visible loop shows the plunging. It just pushed the edge over us and pushed the clouds south making clear skies.

[HURAKAN]

at the moment it doesn't appear to be weakening

[JPmia]

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_18.gif

I think likely track will be somewhere in between the NHC's line and the GFDL model track.

*My personal opinion and not official*

[boca]

Visible loop shows the plunging. It just pushed the edge over us and pushed the clouds south making clear skies.

So your clear to the north and cloudy to your south?

[fci]

GIVEN THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY...A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA KEYS.

You called it Crazy.

Huh?

[boca]

Any slight delay to the turn east and Florida could be in trouble it cutting it close and they must be pretty sure of themselves. I would think aTS watch would be needed for SW Florida if that turn isn't so sharp.

[CrazyC83]

Maybe a bit stronger now? Perhaps 90-95 kt?

[cycloneye]

Maybe a bit stronger now? Perhaps 90-95 kt?

Plane is on route right now, so we will find out.

[fci]

I really don't get what kind of "trouble" you are referring to.

You should read back on what wxman57 and AJC3 have been posting; in this thread and in the models thread.
Even IF, Paula were to track closer to Florida; the size and the shear would make it a non-event.
Florida is NOT in trouble, and never has been; from Paula; according to all the experts.

Really, people need to read everything and put this storm in proper perspective based on the science and not board rhetoric

[Evil Jeremy]

GIVEN THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY...A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA KEYS.

You called it Crazy.

Huh?

CrazyC83 guessed that a TS watch would be posted for the Keys because of the uncertainty.

Really, people need to read everything and put this storm in proper perspective based on the science and not board rhetoric

Welcome to the weather enthusiast forum. People love to speculate and wonder "what if".

[Sanibel]

So your clear to the north and cloudy to your south?

Yep. There's Paula in the lower left. Breezy and cool here but nothing to indicate tropical activity:

[Boriken]

Wow cute little blower.

[fci]

GIVEN THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY...A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA KEYS.

You called it Crazy.

Huh?

CrazyC83 guessed that a TS watch would be posted for the Keys because of the uncertainty.

Really, people need to read everything and put this storm in proper perspective based on the science and not board rhetoric

Welcome to the weather enthusiast forum. People love to speculate and wonder "what if".

Very fair point about "what if".

However, there are people, unlike us; who only check the board occasionally; and we should be mindful that they read the posts and take them to have some validity.
Comments like "threat" and "trouble" should be couched with some statement that it is only speculation.
In the case of Paula; the use of "threat" and "trouble" fly completely in the face of the reality clearly established by all the Pros who help with the board and by the NHC.

So, at what point is the "what if" counter-productive??