ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

[paintplaye]

Even farther north than 6z also looks better:

[gatorcane]

How come nobody finished the posting of the 12Z NAM? It's into Mexico agreeing with ECMWF. The NAM is not good at forecasting tropical cyclogenesis, but it is typically good at predicting steering currents in the short to medium range that would steer a tropical system if one has developed:

[KWT]

The GFS looks too quick to the north, Alex better had lifted out right this second if there is any hope of Alex making those forecast points from the GFS...I just can't see it!

[Dean4Storms]

What I think will be amusing is if the old GFS gets this right and the new GFS is wrong.

[paintplaye]

The GFS looks too quick to the north, Alex better had lifted out right this second if there is any hope of Alex making those forecast points from the GFS...I just can't see it!

Look at the beginning of the track though it has it going due west for the next 6 hours BEFORE stalling and turning north.

[KWT]

Yeah true paintplaye but I really can't see any reason why it would turn that hard, the ridge certainly hasn't broken down enough to turn as north as what the GFS expects.

[paintplaye]

Yeah true paintplaye but I really can't see any reason why it would turn that hard, the ridge certainly hasn't broken down enough to turn as north as what the GFS expects.

I agree and I don't think it will. What I am taking from these last two runs is that the GFS honestly believes that the trough will be strong enough to pick it up north. While I don't expect it to stall and head north it is possible that a NW or a little greater North track could happen.

[Ikester]

You know at some point, you have to use the noodle and say, "it just doesn't make good sense." It is the ONLY major dynamical model that shows such a bizzare scenario (aside from the Canadian I think)

[paintplaye]

You know at some point, you have to use the noodle and say, "it just doesn't make good sense." It is the ONLY major dynamical model that shows such a bizzare scenario (aside from the Canadian I think)

Which the Canadian was the best model last year and lets see if the Euro also goes more north. It is all about the trends.

[rockyman]

On the old GFS, the ridge builds back in between 48 and 72 hours...pushing Alex back to the west

[paintplaye]

72:

[Ikester]

I've seen years where each model was good. In 2008, the GFDL was the first model to shift from Brownsville to Galveston during Hurricane Ike. The other global models followed shortly after.

[allicat1214]

How come nobody finished the posting of the 12Z NAM? It's into Mexico agreeing with ECMWF. The NAM is not good at forecasting tropical cyclogenesis, but it is typically good at predicting steering currents in the short to medium range that would steer a tropical system if one has developed:

What is this off the coast of LA???

[Ikester]

On the old GFS, the ridge builds back in between 48 and 72 hours...pushing Alex back to the west

It looks like that's what this run is going to try and do. Anybody else see a shift to the left this run?

[gatorcane]

I've seen years where each model was good. In 2008, the GFDL was the first model to shift from Brownsville to Galveston during Hurricane Ike. The other global models followed shortly after.

That is exactly right. Just because it was the best last year doesn't mean much this year. Last year there weren't many systems that it could be tested against anyway. The best thing to do with the models is to take a look at all of them to see what each is doing and go from there. One shouldn't pick a model where they would like to see it go and give that one more importance. Right now the majority are saying Mexico though Southern Texas landfall has never been off the table to begin with. But Galveston/SE Texas landfall??? I think that is quite a stretch at this point given the models we have to look at.

[Dean4Storms]

I think this is going to be a close call either way.

[Dean4Storms]

I've seen years where each model was good. In 2008, the GFDL was the first model to shift from Brownsville to Galveston during Hurricane Ike. The other global models followed shortly after.

That is exactly right. Just because it was the best last year doesn't mean much this year. Last year there weren't many systems that it could be tested against anyway. The best thing to do with the models is to take a look at all of them to see what each is doing and go from there. One shouldn't pick a model where they would like to see it go and give that one more importance. Right now the majority are saying Mexico though Southern Texas landfall has never been off the table to begin with.

I wouldn't say the majority, as NHC indicated it is about split down the middle.

[Ikester]

I think this is going to be a close call either way.

For Brownsville maybe. I'm not sold on a 90 degree turn yet. It's interesting, yes but hardly worth putting stock into at this time.

[Ikester]

90 hrs...

[gatorcane]

I've seen years where each model was good. In 2008, the GFDL was the first model to shift from Brownsville to Galveston during Hurricane Ike. The other global models followed shortly after.

That is exactly right. Just because it was the best last year doesn't mean much this year. Last year there weren't many systems that it could be tested against anyway. The best thing to do with the models is to take a look at all of them to see what each is doing and go from there. One shouldn't pick a model where they would like to see it go and give that one more importance. Right now the majority are saying Mexico though Southern Texas landfall has never been off the table to begin with.

I wouldn't say the majority, as NHC indicated it is about split down the middle.

Where do they say it is split down the middle? Split yes, but not an even split that is for sure, more say into Mexico.