ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[I-wall]

Is it just me, or is 93L directly under the anti-cyclone now? Does anyone have an image that shows the location of the upper level high?

[N2Storms]

[quote="Weatherfreak000"]Exceptional job on the forecasting Wxman57. You truly nailed it. I will keep an eye out due to your concern for the Central Gulf.[/quote]



I echo the sentiments of some of the previous posters who have expressed their gratitude to the Pro Mets on this site...we are very fortunate to have these guys and Wxman57 is among the best...he doesn't mince words, he calls it like he sees it and he is usually pretty accurate...Air Force Met is another one of my favs, but like I said, I really appreciate all the Pro Mets who share their insight and expertise with us...

Thanks Guys!!!

[HURAKAN]

Is it just me, or is 93L directly under the anti-cyclone now? Does anyone have an image that shows the location of the upper level high?

[cwachal]

Recon Data

the circle is where the Navy last reported the center... if we get a center fix I will change the location of it

[USTropics]

Is it just me, or is 93L directly under the anti-cyclone now? Does anyone have an image that shows the location of the upper level high?

[clfenwi]

Gee, did the TAFB forecaster have a late lunch date or something? 18Z TWD came out just after 1630!

AXNT20 KNHC 251633
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI JUN 25 2010

A WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W...
DRIFTING WESTWARD. A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE
WAVE NEAR 17N. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N
TO 17N BETWEEN 81W AND 83W/84W...AT LEAST REACHING THE EASTERN
COASTS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. OTHER STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE WATERS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER...
TO THE SOUTH OF 19N BETWEEN 85W AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
BELIZE. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 19N BETWEEN 79W AND THE
NORTHEASTERN THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. THE
SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY
ARE BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. IT IS LIKELY
THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE IT
REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS HIGH. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS AREA OF WEATHER LATER TODAY.

[xcool22]

AL, 93, 2010062512, , BEST, 0, 165N, 825W, 30, 1005, LO,

[I-wall]

Is it just me, or is 93L directly under the anti-cyclone now? Does anyone have an image that shows the location of the upper level high?

Not quite. Looks to be imparting some northerly shear over the LLC still.

[Sanibel]

A disorganized and sheared mess with deep energy and an ill-defined center.

[I-wall]

I'm not at all sold on 93L. Still looks pretty bad to me. The upper level high is staying in front of 93L creating constant shear.

[Sanibel]

Looks like something that will hang together as a broad, sub-tropical-looking Tropical Storm.

[tailgater]

A disorganized and sheared mess with deep energy and an ill-defined center.

Okay Sanibel. so your saying the recon won't find a TD
93L that is

[HURAKAN]

and the world awaits!!!



Real picture from somewhere in the world of people waiting for the RECON to find or not find a west wind!

[HURAKAN]

963
ABNT20 KNHC 251750
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUN 25 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA BETWEEN THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS AND GRAND
CAYMAN HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY. AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE SYSTEM TO
DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED. REGARDLESS...
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY FORM AT ANY TIME LATER TODAY OR
SATURDAY. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS
SYSTEM...ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS...IS FORECAST
TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND REACH THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA IN A DAY OR TWO. ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND YUCATAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.

A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CENTERED
JUST EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM
HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS

[HURAKAN]

LOL, like 5 people at the same time posted the TWO

[year_2005]

Ok i was looking at the data for the reconnaissance on another post on storm2k, i roughly sketched the wind vectors on a sheet of paper and it looks to me (WARNING : i do not exactly know what i am talking about here since im an amateur) that there is a circulation near 20 N 84 W , and the weather satellites seem to show this to around this area (but maybe im just seeing things ) , but could it be a tropical depression?

[southerngale]

Recon is there now. Please refer to the discussion thread for 93L.

[chzzdekr81]

LOL, like 5 people at the same time posted the TWO

I was so close to beating you LOL.

[jlauderdal]

LOL, like 5 people at the same time posted the TWO

yes, i suggest that advisories, etc get there own thread, we really dont need that in the discussion feed.

[bahamaswx]

LOL, like 5 people at the same time posted the TWO

yes, i suggest that advisories, etc get there own thread, we really dont need that in the discussion feed.

Helps me. I really don't want to check 18 different threads.