ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[Stormcenter]

The convection is still being blown off by the intense shear.
Until this ceases or at least relaxes some 97L will remain 97L. IMO

Looking at the latest sat pics, 97L looking better now than all day, deep convection developing now near the center, going over very warm SST's, shear may be relaxing some.................

TG

[AdamFirst]

I am thinking the center is now just on the western edge of the convection. Still getting sheared like hell but the convection is creeping closer.

http://img15.imageshack.us/img15/8114/97l20189624.jpg

According to BEST track you're about 100 miles off

[mvtrucking]

Ship report from T&C:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search. ... t=A&time=3

Was that ship reporting NE winds at 52 knots @ 21.50 -72.50 ? (Maybe I was reading it wrong)

[AtlanticWind]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-rb.html

Convection really popping now , one thing with small systems like this is they spin up fast(sometimes)

[Recurve]

WHAT is going on. I know satellite can play tricks on you but if you set the rainbow loop on "rock" -- wow. Must be an illusion? Great example of how we can see "centers" forming as our eyes cross from loop burnout. Still....reasonable convection tonight.

I haven't paid attention for hours and hours over the last days...been posting a few stories for the Keys on keysnet.com, but since this is now only a day and a half away or so, it looks like we could still have anything from drizzle to a depression moving into Bahamas/South Florida into Friday.

Like to see some buoy obs.

Thank goodness I took a nap. Might be a fun night to stare at loops till dawn. Then again...

[boca]

Hard to tell is 97L moving west or WNW?

[dixiebreeze]

Pretty good drop in pressure from 1012 to 1009 this evening. Looks to me like she's on her way.

Where are these pressure readings from?

NRL has pressure now at 1009 mb with 30 winds --

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... &TYPE=ssmi

[clfenwi]

Ship report from T&C:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search. ... t=A&time=3

Was that ship reporting NE winds at 52 knots @ 21.50 -72.50 ? (Maybe I was reading it wrong)

Yep that's what it reported. Using coolwx.com I found the vessel's callsign (C6FZ7) and cross-referenced it. Royal Carribean's Enchantment of the Seas is the vessel responsible for that report.

[HURAKAN]

Pretty good drop in pressure from 1012 to 1009 this evening. Looks to me like she's on her way.

Where are these pressure readings from?

NRL has pressure now at 1009 mb with 30 winds --

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... &TYPE=ssmi

30 knots, since 00z best track

[artist]

It also looks to elongating some, which is keeping that shear zone from clearing out of the area very quickly, which could be an issue if that continues.

I agree. Its shearing out with a piece of the energy diving WSW. This will probably spin up another upper level low to the SW of where it is now. That will place 97L under SE'ly shear...which isn't so bad.

The one thing we cannot count on is what the pipcture will look like in 2 days. Upper level wind forecasts are so bad with these ULL's...it could be well SW of the system and providing great outflow...or it could stay west of it and shear it to death. No confidence at all in the upper wind forecast.

Indeed. I hope that the G-IV data will help out some, but one shot of dropsondes can only add so much - the future of this ULL is going to be so important, and yet is shrouded in a bit of mystery. How awesomely frustrating

did you see the final obs were posted? Are you able to make anything out of them?

[dixiebreeze]

Pretty good spin happening right now. We have inflow, outflow and pressure drops, looks like the 2 a.m. update will be interesting.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-wv.html

[StormTracker]

2morrow will be a day to sit back and reflect upon 2day's posts!

I still don't think there is any evidence that tomorrow's going to be different. Even the Mets here seem bearish on development compared to yesterday.

I like to think of it a bit more of snapping back to reality. I think even we got a little caught up in yesterday afternoon's burst - at least I did. In reality, this has always been a system with some potential, but with large challenges because of its environment. It was true yesterday, it was true today, and it'll be true tomorrow.

And i'm gettin' caught up in 2nite's burst right now! Like you said, "this has always been a system with potential"! I think the ULL's positioning is aiding 97L right now and setting it up for a nice little ignition-sequence, if you will!!! And we all know what the Fla. Straits is capable of adding to the equation!

[JTD]

Sorry to be blunt but I am a bit confused here...

Is this more likely to be a named system than not or should I look elsewhere for the next named system?

[boca]

The 30 nots best track post,wouldn't that qualify for a depression status.

[JTD]

The 30 nots best track post,wouldn't that qualify for a depression status.

It definitely would. The issue probably is the lack of a well-defined LLC and without one you could have a wave with 80 mph winds and it wouldn't be a cyclone. The LLC has yet to tuck under to the full extent that it should, I believe. Correct? I hope I'm not too far off base here.

[CourierPR]

The 30 nots best track post,wouldn't that qualify for a depression status.

Only with a closed low at the surface.

[SouthFloridawx]

The 30 nots best track post,wouldn't that qualify for a depression status.

As long as a closed area of low pressure is found.

[Tropics Guy]

Pretty good spin happening right now. We have inflow, outflow and pressure drops, looks like the 2 a.m. update will be interesting.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-wv.html

We may be be back up to "code red" again soon................

[cheezyWXguy]

The 30 nots best track post,wouldn't that qualify for a depression status.

As long as a closed area of low pressure is found.

with sufficient convection

[boca]

Its pretty darn close in my opinion as far as closed low but I was tricked yesterday too.