ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

[Ikester]

It's pretty simple, the CMC and GFS and Ensembles are going to gain validity or be totally garbage in a few hours. The motion of Alex by midnight tonight will be very telling.

[Ivanhater]

Last night's euro ensembles (first time some went to Texas)

[Ikester]

Last night's euro ensembles (first time some went to Texas)

Holy smokes! Ivan, what is that website? I'd like to bookmark it if you don't mind...

[Hurricane Andrew]

What is an Ensemble?

[KFDM Meteorologist]

12Z EURO well south of Brownsville with Landfall.

[x-y-no]

What is an Ensemble?

Multiple runs of the same model with slight variations in initial conditions.

[Hurricane Andrew]

What is an Ensemble?

Multiple runs of the same model with slight variations in initial conditions.

Thanks.

[KWT]

Looks like that operational run has done pretty well so far Ivanhater, though granted its been about 24hrs since then so you'd have to hope it would be close to the mark.

How far south is the ECM from Brownsville?

[txagwxman]

No alarm...but If I were in S Texas and SE Texas I would start paying attention carefully. I am getting gasoline today. Hopefully the ECMWF is going to be right, but there are many EC ensemble members along the TX coast.

[PTrackerLA]

New Euro seems to be right in line with the NHC track right now. Given that and the GFS showing Galveston does anyone think the NHC will shift their track northward or side with the Euro? If the Euro nails this one I will have even greater respect for it! I remember last year how the GFS showed Hurricane Bill hitting New Orleans run after run while the Euro showed Nova Scotia (or around there) and we all know how that turned out.

[txagwxman]

Your right...its not a huge amount...but, take a euro W bias and might just creep close to brownsville.

ECMWF/UKMET are known for west biases...

[xironman]

I like the Euro from day 7-4, inside that the other models have enough skill to make them hard to ignore. The Ukie run is in almost perfect alignment with the Euro.

[southerngale]

No alarm...but If I were in S Texas and SE Texas I would start paying attention carefully. I am getting gasoline today. Hopefully the ECMWF is going to be right, but there are many EC ensemble members along the TX coast.

When you start with "No alarm... " people are going to be alarmed. j/k. But just when I was thinking since the Euro is till MX, surely others will shift back south, I read this.

Oh, the tropics!

[South Texas Storms]

Do you guys think this will be a south texas landfall or north mexico after the 12z model runs? Or is it too early to tell still?

[Hurricane Andrew]

No alarm...but If I were in S Texas and SE Texas I would start paying attention carefully. I am getting gasoline today. Hopefully the ECMWF is going to be right, but there are many EC ensemble members along the TX coast.

When you start with "No alarm... " people are going to be alarmed. j/k. But just when I was thinking since the Euro is till MX, surely others will shift back south, I read this.

Oh, the tropics!

The Euro has been MX since i donno when and the models came north!

[HurricaneJoe22]

Went to church and had to watch this thread from my blackberry....is that wrong?


anyway, the models keep trending north.....eventually they willl settle down one would hope...trend is north and EURO coming out soon

God understands weather freaks.

[Sambucol]

No alarm...but If I were in S Texas and SE Texas I would start paying attention carefully. I am getting gasoline today. Hopefully the ECMWF is going to be right, but there are many EC ensemble members along the TX coast.

I just got out my gas cans, and had already planned on filling them up this afternoon. Adding Pri-G to the gas, also. I'm glad to know I haven't lost my mind in doing this. lol.

[KWT]

Your right...its not a huge amount...but, take a euro W bias and might just creep close to brownsville.

ECMWF/UKMET are known for west biases...

Yep the ECM does have a bias of overdoing ridges, the UKMO if anything might be even worse for those sorts of things.

Still we do have a real divide here between two camps of models, the HWRF tonight somewhat joining the GFS/CMC band with a US landfall. My issue is the TX LF systems all already have this system north of where it currently is suggesting they may not havre a good grip on the current set-up, meaning it doesn't gain as much lattiude as they expect.

Either way still solid agreement on Alex becoming the Atl. first hurricane.

[Ivanhater]

[ROCK]

No alarm...but If I were in S Texas and SE Texas I would start paying attention carefully. I am getting gasoline today. Hopefully the ECMWF is going to be right, but there are many EC ensemble members along the TX coast.

I just got out my gas cans and am going to fill them up this afternoon. Adding Pri-G to the gas, also.

I am going to wait awhile...not totally convinced just yet. Plus I would rather not have 50 gallons of gas in my garage sitting in 100F heat...


EURO is staying the course for now....got a long time to wait for the next one. If the EURO is the lone outlier tonight then I might go and get some tomorrow.