ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[boca]

Where's gatorcane he be all over 97L, hes kinda quiet these days.

[dixiebreeze]

Its pretty darn close in my opinion as far as closed low but I was tricked yesterday too.

Don't know about y'all, but I'm checking my water supply tomorrow.

[Bocadude85]

convection really appears to be expanding to the west... and that ULL keeps diving to the SW while becoming more elongated.. I am not sure if that is shear induced convection or not

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-rb.html

[tina25]

Ugh.. I feel like a sitting duck. I wonder what NHC will do at 2am if this trend continues? I have a feeling they will keep it the same for now. At least until tomorrow.

[Recurve]

Good idea Dixie.

I'm never unprepared, but made sure yesterday car was full of gas, 10 gal water on hand, put all the flashlights in one place, checked the propane supply, etc.

Thing with something like this, when do shutters go up? Silly to have shutters up for a wave, stupid to not have them up if you get a cat 1 hit and tree branches start flying around.

Without the adverse shear I'd be worried instead of just watchful I guess.

Funny how different it is when we're watching a wave less than 500 miles away instead of 2,000.

[ConvergenceZone]

Where's gatorcane he be all over 97L, hes kinda quiet these days.

I agree, gatorcane use to be a big time poster. I still see him post, but not near as much as he use to...Probably just
got busy with other things....

[fci]

[quote="HURAKAN]

tomorrow should be interesting[/quote]

And I think tomorrow at this time we will also be saying "tomorrow should be interesting"; just like we did last night!

[dixiebreeze]

In my unqualified non-professional opinion, I think the shear is highly overrated.

[ConvergenceZone]

And I think tomorrow at this time we will also be saying "tomorrow should be interesting"; just like we did last night!

Exactly, that's why I don't buy into the idea of it looking better tonight. Because it also looked better last night for about 3 or 4 hours, and then it fooled us
all again. It needs to look good consistently and not just 3 or 4 hours

[fci]

Ship report from T&C:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search. ... t=A&time=3

Was that ship reporting NE winds at 52 knots @ 21.50 -72.50 ? (Maybe I was reading it wrong)

Yep that's what it reported. Using coolwx.com I found the vessel's callsign (C6FZ7) and cross-referenced it. Royal Carribean's Enchantment of the Seas is the vessel responsible for that report.

And I bet the passengers spending their vacation on the Enchantment of the Seas are having a "real good time".
Rock and Roll not only going on in the lounge.
Barf bags on all of the bannisters.....
Yippee!!!

[CourierPR]

Looking at the latest RAMSDIS loop, it sure looks to be organizing with hints of banding. Am I suffering from loopitis?

[AdamFirst]

In my unqualified non-professional opinion, I think the shear is highly overrated.

I concur. It's hardly a dealbreaker for the system.

I think that when the NHC plots again they're moving the center more north.

[SouthFloridawx]

If you look at this water vapor loop, you can see the ULL starting to head off to the west much faster than previously. This could possibly explain the larger amount of sustained convection near the area that was previously identified in the last best track.

http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/opdb/aviation/loops/realtime/atlwv_loope.html

[Recurve]

In my unqualified non-professional opinion, I think the shear is highly overrated.

It's starting to look that way on the rainbow sat....in my nonqualified unprofessional opinion.

Now's as good a time as any for my annual reminder: 75 years ago a wave at the Turks tuned into a depression, barely a storm as it was approaching Andros, and spun up crossing the Straits to become a Cat 5 hurricane with what is still the lowest pressure ever at U.S. landfall, bringing an 18-foot surge into Islamorada. This September 2 will be the 75th anniversary of the Labor Day hurricane. The worst tropical surprise ever. Thankfully satellites keep us from ever being that much in the dark about an approaching storm again, but the development of that monster thing in such a short space and time is always on my mind.

Back to reality...

[Scorpion]

Eh.. models are going further and further south. Looks like we won't be getting any rain here in Orlando

[AtlanticWind]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

Center appears to be at 22N and 73.8 looking at this shortwave loop , just on the edge of the convection

[ROCK]

In my unqualified non-professional opinion, I think the shear is highly overrated.

I concur. It's hardly a dealbreaker for the system.

I think that when the NHC plots again they're moving the center more north.

this ULL shear is prohibiting the system from becoming vertically stacked. The NHC is not going to move the system north unless the LLC is pulled up into the recent convection which I highly doubt....last vis I saw was a weak LLC on the western edge of the convection booking west...

Here is the steering currently:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... lm1-1.html

[ROCK]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

Center appears to be at 22N and 73.8 looking at this shortwave loop , just on the edge of the convection

looks elongated with a hint of south of west track....

[ROCK]

to me it looks like 97L might pay a visit to Cuba...

wasnt it like 350 miles away earlier...

[AtlanticWind]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

Center appears to be at 22N and 73.8 looking at this shortwave loop , just on the edge of the convection

looks elongated with a hint of south of west track....

Still booking Wnw as far as I see