ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion

[Comanche]

No way GFS verifies...im having a hard time thinking anythig beyond a depression will form.

I've seen stranger things happen.

Strangest thing I ever remember, in modern times anyway, was Ivan making landfall, moving up to the NE and then off the Jersey coast, moving south from there offshore, across florida back into the gulf, regenerating and making landfall again near sabine. Which BTW, was correctly forecasted by JB to his credit. I thought for sure he was certifiably nuts when he predicted this.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Ivan_2004_track.png

[Ivanhater]

Mobile/Pensacola AFD

[img].LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...AN INTERESTING PATTERN PLAYS
OUT FOR THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH THE
GFS/ECMWF/GEM MOVING THE SURFACE LOW WESTWARD ACROSS THE MARINE AREA
MONDAY TO NEAR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA MONDAY NIGHT WHILE A TRAILING
FRONT FROM A CANADIAN SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND
STALLS NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE
SOMEWHAT STRONGER WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND APPEARS TROPICAL IN
NATURE AND THE GEM SOLUTION IS CLOSE TO THE GFS AS WELL. THE
EXTENDED RANGE HPC DISCUSSION NOTES THE CONSISTENCY OF THE GFS FOR
THIS TREND BUT SUSPECTS MODEL FEEDBACK PROBLEMS SO HAVE GONE WITH A
BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM WHICH MOVES THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND WEAKENS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR. CONSIDERING THIS HAVE STAYED WITH
GOOD CHANCE DAYTIME POPS FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EACH NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE
LEVELS BUT DID NOT GO AS COOL AS THE MEX FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
FOR THE ABOVE REASONS. /29

&&
[/img]

[KWT]

Yeah given how much rain fell in the central Gulf in the last few days if we do get any sort of decent system come along the coastline we are going to really see some flooding issues I feel...

[CaneCurious]

We have had lots of rain from this system. We needed the relief from the heat but we are now dealing with a lot of street flooding. I work in an area that is prone to flooding and it is bad today.

[KWT]

So your really not going to need a tropical low coming over your location with lots of moisture with it...

[sjmballer]

jb opinion td 5 did not dissipate may be a gulf problem sunday through wednesday.....video on accuweather.com ...i tried to pull video not working for me... ivanhater help

[Ivanhater]

Great video discussion from JB. Here is the link baller

http://www.accuweather.com/video/558045 ... nesday.asp

[KWT]

Here is Joe B's take on the possible evolution:

http://www.accuweather.com/video/558045 ... nesday.asp

[Wx_Warrior]

SoTex...I agree something will be there, just not convinced on the strength.

[Steve]

>>wx warrior, you dont believe the 12z gfs scenario yet do you?

It will never rain in San Antonio again for the rest of your life.
----------------------------
>>Strangest thing I ever remember, in modern times anyway, was Ivan making landfall, moving up to the NE and then off the Jersey coast, moving south from there offshore, across florida back into the gulf, regenerating and making landfall again near sabine. Which BTW, was correctly forecasted by JB to his credit. I thought for sure he was certifiably nuts when he predicted this.

No knock on JB because he's my favorite tropical forecaster. Initially, I thought it was an awsome rogue call by Joe B as well. But the idea came out of two or three consecutive UKMET Model runs. It progged the entire scenario with the building ridge, backdoor front and blow-back into the Gulf. UKMET Model sometimes is one of the best. Sometimes, it's out to lunch as any of them. And while it appeared that it was out to lunch with Ivan, it scored the JB's proverbial Coup. So while he gets credit for mentioning it, it was the model that introduced the scenario.

[frederic79]

Okay so what is the consensus on when (if) this surface low actually re-enters the Gulf? That seems key.

[I-wall]

Here is Joe B's take on the possible evolution:

http://www.accuweather.com/video/558045 ... nesday.asp

Interesting. It will be fun to watch how this plays out over the next few days.

[Nimbus]

If TD 5 had stalled 75 miles further south we would be tracking a tropical storm. Looks like the remnants are drifting SW but there is not much left.
Glad we have something harmless to watch.

[Wx_Warrior]

I see something on the EURO, and this isn't it...Look East in the ATL....

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Euro (500mb) has a weak disturbance traveling Westbound across the Northern Gulf and into TX on late Wednesday/early Thursday.

[KWT]

The 12z ECM does develop this, probably would be just a TD is we took the ECM at face value but the track is also further west...I suspect this would be TD5 again if the ECM was correct.

[Ivanhater]

Some reason the first few frames are not uploading.

[Ikester]

Models don't paint an overly favorable environment for development. Wouldn't rule out regeneration to a TD or a weak storm.

[Ikester]

Here's the GFS Ensembles...good agreement with the Euro and gfs members...

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... p12120.gif

[KWT]

Ikester, I disagree with that, the models develop something that has spent 3-4 days overland surprisingly quickly and indeed the GFS probably would mean a TS develops right at the coast, you don't get that without favourable conditions aloft.