ATL : EX TOMAS - Discussion

[Blown Away]

"...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH FLATTENING AND LEAVING TOMAS BEHIND. THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT..."

Are the models leaving Tomas behind north of Hispaniola or do they curl back into the Caribbean.

[Ntxw]

Still a lot of on and off convection, but no true organization.

[HurricaneBill]

Is it possible Tomas might form a new LLC?

Remember with Jeanne in 2004, the original LLC spun away from the convection and a new LLC formed in the large band of convection east of Jeanne?

[KWT]

I wouldn't rule that out as a possible solution that it forms a new LLC, esp given the large convective mass...

I think the NHC are being very agressive with thier call of that strength landfall, things are going to have to improve soon in terms of the set-up aloft.

Rainfall is undoubtably the real threat for Haiti still, and with lots of convection about I think there will be alot of rain in general for them in the next few days.

[wxman57]

"...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH FLATTENING AND LEAVING TOMAS BEHIND. THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT..."

Are the models leaving Tomas behind north of Hispaniola or do they curl back into the Caribbean.

None of the global models (CMC, ECMWF, GFS) is leaving Tomas behind north of the DR, they just differ on how fast Tomas accelerates out to sea. The GFS does kind of stall it well out to sea NE of the Caribbean for a while.

[KWT]

Its quite interesting to see the NHC going as high as 85kts with this considering the state its in, some of the models are bullish and the RI index is high but its got some way to go yet...

Still I'm always cautious with system moving NNE/NE because they have a habit of pulling quick strengthening spells as they feel the trough....and the land interaction can't be helping this system either...

Gotta hope the convective mass is so large it can't pull itself into a coherent system in time...

[SouthDadeFish]

Don't know what to make of Tomas. An unusual storm to say the least.

[Weatherfreak000]

It's going to blow up. Eventually. It's just a matter of time. I expected everything Tomas has done to occur so far except the initial intensity bust.


I say RI begins within the next 12-18 hours.

[KWT]

If the shear does ease off then certainly there is a good chance it restrengthens back into a hurricane, and most models are pretty bullish in that respect considering right now its debateable as to whether its even a TS still...

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 21, 2010110300, , BEST, 0, 136N, 748W, 35, 1006, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

Remains as a Tropical Storm.

[crimi481]

Most storms end last year -and this year have been strange. Lots with 2 centers floating around, or 2 lows close to each other - or surface low attached to upper low.

Strange?

[SouthDadeFish]

I'm starting to think the elongated center is trying to reform farther east. Looks like a spiral band is developing to the south and west of the convective flare-up. I think the western blob will shoot off and die, leading to the rise of the new center. Anyone else seeing this? I'm just an average joe

[cycloneye]

We need a recent mircowave image that may show what is going on with the structure.

[tolakram]

We need a recent mircowave image that may show what is going on with the structure.

Agreed. As far as what happened or what is happening I'm guessing it's fairly straightforward. The center mostly dissipated and as a result the graveyard took over ... this is the area where invests always fail to develop due to lack of good inflow. As Tomas moves more west or north the inflow will improve and Tomas will start rev up again. IMO the NHC either missed the dissipation or decided, for continuity sake, to keep Tomas around since the actual structural layout of the storm means little to the people who need to be watching Tomas. I think the complete lack of observable spin is a fairly clear indication that there is no LLC or a very weak one.

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[tolakram]

... and

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1



Finally some banding showing up. Tomas actually looks tropical again. Like clockwork, it starts to clear the top of South America and can finally get some inflow going.

[cycloneye]

Yes Mark,SA played a big roll not allowing inflow but that is almost over now.

[SouthDadeFish]

Looks like the circular structure is becoming very apparent compared to earlier, and all he really needs to get going is more convection over the center. Seems like he's back to step one of his life right before he moved through the islands.

[crimi481]

Possible Tomas goes towards Belize area -as Ridge to north remains in control of what is left of storm. The system in Gulf appears won't be much of player here.

[Shuriken]

Its quite interesting to see the NHC going as high as 85kts with this considering the state its in

The "state it's in" is that it has a closed LLC, and will be in the southwest Caribbean shortly -- that cat-5 factory.

85kts is a reasonable intensity compromise between 35kts and 135kts.