ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

[ROCK]

still the split in camps...wont be long and the 18z GFS comes out...

[txagwxman]

No alarm...but If I were in S Texas and SE Texas I would start paying attention carefully. I am getting gasoline today. Hopefully the ECMWF is going to be right, but there are many EC ensemble members along the TX coast.

I just got out my gas cans and am going to fill them up this afternoon. Adding Pri-G to the gas, also.

I am going to wait awhile...not totally convinced just yet. Plus I would rather not have 50 gallons of gas in my garage sitting in 100F heat...


EURO is staying the course for now....got a long time to wait for the next one. If the EURO is the lone outlier tonight then I might go and get some tomorrow.

Me either...but all my cans are empty...might as well fill up 1 or 2. Can't hurt to take precautions now ahead of time.

[ROCK]

No alarm...but If I were in S Texas and SE Texas I would start paying attention carefully. I am getting gasoline today. Hopefully the ECMWF is going to be right, but there are many EC ensemble members along the TX coast.

I just got out my gas cans and am going to fill them up this afternoon. Adding Pri-G to the gas, also.

I am going to wait awhile...not totally convinced just yet. Plus I would rather not have 50 gallons of gas in my garage sitting in 100F heat...


EURO is staying the course for now....got a long time to wait for the next one. If the EURO is the lone outlier tonight then I might go and get some tomorrow.

crap that means I have to stay up again tonight!!

[wxman22]

[cycloneye]

And here are the infamous BAMS.

WHXX01 KWBC 271855
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1855 UTC SUN JUN 27 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE ALEX (AL012010) 20100627 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100627 1800 100628 0600 100628 1800 100629 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.9N 90.7W 19.9N 91.9W 21.0N 92.6W 21.4N 93.1W
BAMD 18.9N 90.7W 19.6N 91.9W 20.1N 92.8W 20.3N 93.6W
BAMM 18.9N 90.7W 19.7N 92.0W 20.4N 92.8W 20.8N 93.3W
LBAR 18.9N 90.7W 20.1N 92.0W 21.2N 93.5W 22.5N 95.0W
SHIP 30KTS 33KTS 40KTS 48KTS
DSHP 30KTS 36KTS 43KTS 51KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100629 1800 100630 1800 100701 1800 100702 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.0N 93.6W 23.2N 94.2W 24.9N 94.7W 27.2N 95.8W
BAMD 20.5N 94.5W 21.0N 96.5W 21.1N 98.4W 21.3N 100.5W
BAMM 21.3N 94.0W 22.0N 95.1W 22.7N 95.9W 24.6N 96.1W
LBAR 23.9N 96.6W 26.8N 98.8W 29.5N 99.3W 32.2N 97.7W
SHIP 59KTS 78KTS 85KTS 84KTS
DSHP 62KTS 81KTS 61KTS 30KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.9N LONCUR = 90.7W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 18.0N LONM12 = 89.0W DIRM12 = 300DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 17.2N LONM24 = 87.3W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 999MB OUTPRS = 1007MB OUTRAD = 240NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Weatherfreak000]

Wow unreal, the models are completely split across the board.


Either it goes into Mexico or it goes potentially anywhere between Texas or even Louisiana here.




What a nailbiter.

[Sambucol]

Plus I would rather not have 50 gallons of gas in my garage sitting in 100F heat...

Thankfully, I have a large warehouse on my property to store the gas. I would be uncomfortable with that much gas sitting in a regular sized garage in this heat, too.

[Ivanhater]

Dr. Masters take on the new models

Alex may head north to Texas or Louisiana

Updated: 6:36 PM GMT on June 27, 2010

Forecast for Alex: which model should you trust?
While the track forecast for Alex today through Monday is fairly well-assured, the longer range forecast has become highly uncertain. An increasing number of our reliable models are now indicating Alex may take a more northerly track beginning on Tuesday, with possible landfall on the Texas coast near Galveston on Friday (according to the 8am run of the GFS model) or into western Louisiana on Wednesday (the 8am run of the Canadian model.) The key question remains how Alex will react to the trough of low pressure expected to swing down over the Eastern U.S. on Monday and Tuesday. Most of the models were predicting that the trough would not be strong enough to swing Alex to the north, and several of them continue to predict this. The 8am run of the NOGAPS model, for example, takes Alex into the Gulf coast of Mexico 150 miles south of Texas, on Wednesday. The GFDL and HWRF models split the difference, with the GFDL predicting a Thursday landfall in southern Texas near Brownsville, and the HWRF predicting a Thursday landfall near Corpus Christi. So which model should you trust? Last year, the best performing models at the 3 - 4 days period were the GFS and the Canadian, and these are the models that are currently calling for the more northerly track towards the upper Texas coast and Louisiana. Residents of those areas should review their hurricane preparedness plans and anticipate the Alex could make landfall as early as Wednesday in their vicinity.

[chzzdekr81]

The path keeps going higher and higher.....

[cycloneye]

Ivan,he doesn't mention the EURO.

[Weatherfreak000]

The EURO was horrendous days out last year. It was at it's best before 24 hours.

[Ivanhater]

[vaffie]

I thought some of you would be interested in seeing how the models have shifted since midnight. You can clearly see the change for the GFDL and HWRF models towards Texas. The Canadian does a really unusual loop just before landfall taking it into SW Louisiana, but without that would track into East Texas. Note too that we haven't mentioned it but the UKMET has also a more northerly track than before, and as it approaches the coast now has an almost due north track, but it is too close to Mexico at point to make landfall in Texas.


https://bigfile.bcm.tmc.edu/outbound/vb ... 0shift.tif

[cycloneye]

12z UKMET

More north.

Sun Jun 27 15:19:22 EDT 2010



827

WTNT80 EGRR 271800


MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 27.06.2010

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX ANALYSED POSITION : 18.4N 89.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL012010

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 27.06.2010 18.4N 89.8W WEAK
00UTC 28.06.2010 19.5N 91.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.06.2010 20.6N 92.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.06.2010 20.9N 93.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.06.2010 21.9N 93.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 30.06.2010 22.9N 95.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.06.2010 22.9N 97.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 01.07.2010 23.4N 98.9W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 01.07.2010 23.7N 97.4W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 02.07.2010 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

[Andrew92]

The last coordinate, do they mean 99.4 perhaps? Kinda odd that it would go inland than quickly hook back to the east!

-Andrew92

[cycloneye]

The last coordinate, do they mean 99.4 perhaps? Kinda odd that it would go inland than quickly hook back to the east!

-Andrew92

That is what the text says.I forgot to post the link.

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... /ukmet.txt

[KFDM Meteorologist]

The EURO was horrendous days out last year. It was at it's best before 24 hours.

Not the EURO i looked at last year.

[Weatherfreak000]

The EURO was horrendous days out last year. It was at it's best before 24 hours.

Not the EURO i looked at last year.

I direct you to the NHC's statistical graphics regarding that.

[ROCK]

another north camper....at some point the NHC is going to have to blend in the EURO with some of these others....Another north shift probably next update...

I am not saying they need to abandon the EURO but weight in the GFS and some of these more northern models. You cant live and die by one model.....I learned that the hard way here recently...

[Nimbus]

The extrapolated motion is already 300 so you know Alex is going to track further right than that towards the ridge weakness. Often these gulf storms hook back west again after missing the trough but exactly where would be a tough call to make at this point. By tomorrow everyone in Texas will be topping up their gas tanks.