ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion

[Ivanhater]

Edit GFS Ensemble

[KWT]

Probably just about far enough south for some sort of depression out of the run I'd imagine looking at the run.

[srainhoutx]

I disagree, KWT. This disturbance is still close to the coast. While I will agree that upper air conditions need to somewhat ideal, that certainly does not mean that some strengthening can not happen. The interesting thing is virtually all guidance is sniffing development of some sort beginning Sunday/Monday. The big question IMO is will this feature get back over the Gulf or remain just inland. Time will tell.

[Ivanhater]

Well not having the higher resolution Euro updating is frustrating.

12z Euro has closed low south off NW Florida then to Nola

[Ivanhater]

UKMET..South of Pensacola

[Dean4Storms]

NWS Mobile with this situation and graphics........

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/graphicast.php?site=mob

[Dean4Storms]

UL conditions are forecasted to be ideal, with good outflow over the low in all quadrants but the NW.

[Ivanhater]

Yeah Dean. If anyone missed it, here is a video from JB about the potential and favorable conditions for this.

http://www.accuweather.com/video/558045 ... nesday.asp

[ColinDelia]

The precipitation formerly known as TD5 has to be one of the more interesting TDs of the past few years - made all the more interesting by there being nothing else out there.

I'll never forget the way that ULL in the Northern Bahamas moved west and bit the top right off that muffin leaving nothing but stub

[Ikester]

Ikester, I disagree with that, the models develop something that has spent 3-4 days overland surprisingly quickly and indeed the GFS probably would mean a TS develops right at the coast, you don't get that without favourable conditions aloft.

Well I said 'overly' favorable. Sure, we could see some regeneration, but proximity to land will keep it from undergoing RI.

[cycloneye]

If you have noticed that suddenly this thread grew in a extraordinary way is because the ex TD 5 thread at Active Storms/invests forum was merged to this one.

[Wx_Warrior]

JB's friend the EURO doesn't do much with it....

[srainhoutx]

HPC Model Diagnostics Disco...snip...

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
236 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2010

VALID AUG 13/1200 UTC THRU AUG 17/0000 UTC


...SEE NOUS42 KWNO ADMNFD FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

...EVALUATION OF THE 12Z ECMWF INCLUDING FINAL PREFERENCES...


...REMNANTS OF FORMER T.D. FIVE...

FINAL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z/00Z UKMET AND 00Z CMC/EC ENS
MEAN

INITIALLY...GOOD CONTINUITY EXISTS WITH THE REMNANT UPPER-LEVEL
VORT MAX LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. THROUGH SAT
MORNING...A SLOW NORTHEASTWARD PUSH IS EXPECTED WITH SOME
DISSIPATION POSSIBLE. WHILE THE EVOLUTION VARIES FROM RUN TO RUN
WITH THE NAM...THE LAST THREE VERSIONS INDICATE AN AREA OF PVA
NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FL PANHANDLE BY THE LATTER PORTION OF
THE WEEKEND. THEREAFTER...THE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT WESTWARD BACK TO
ITS ORIGINAL POSITION NEAR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. THE EXTENT TO WHICH
THE UPPER FEATURE INTENSIFIES TOWARD THE END OF THE SHORT-RANGE
PERIOD IS STILL UP IN THE AIR. HOWEVER...ONE NOTABLE TREND WITH
THE 12Z NAM IS A 2 TO 4 MB DEEPENING WITH THE SFC LOW BY EARLY
MON.

THE 12Z/06Z RUNS OF THE GFS APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE 12Z NAM BRINGING THE UPPER VORT MAX TOWARD THE FL PANHANDLE BY
EARLY SUN MORNING. THIS IS IN STARK CONTRAST TO THE 00Z GFS WHICH
BROUGHT THE SYSTEM FARTHER INLAND INTO INTERIOR GA. AS THE
DISTURBANCE REACHES THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...THE NEW GFS
FORECASTS FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. THIS AGAIN
MATCHES THE 12Z NAM...ALTHOUGH THE TWO MODELS ARE DIFFERENT IN
PLACEMENT BY 17/0000Z.

OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT THREE DAYS...ALL OF THE OPERATIONAL
AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE SIMILAR SCENARIOS THAT WERE
FORECAST BY THE 12Z NAM/GFS. THERE IS QUITE A BIT VARIABILITY ONCE
THE SYSTEM REACHES THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. BY MON MORNING...THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE SPREAD CONTAINS THE CAMP OF THE 12Z
NAM/GFS...06Z GEFS MEAN...AND 03Z SREF MEAN. MEANWHILE...TO THE
EAST...THE 00Z CMC/UKMET/EC ENS MEAN ARE CLUSTERED NEAR ONE
ANOTHER...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF JUST TO THE SOUTH. WITH THE NEWER 12Z
GUIDANCE COMING IN...THE 12Z UKMET HAS HELD ITS CONTINUITY...WHILE
THE 12Z CMC SEEMS TO DIVERGE FROM THE OTHER MODELS...INCLUDING ITS
PREDECESSOR RUN BY LATE MON. THEREFORE...GIVEN THE CLUSTERING OF
THE 00Z GUIDANCE APPEARS MORE IN LINE WITH THE HPC/TPC MEDIUM
RANGE CONFERENCE CALL...THIS SOLN WILL BE RECOMMENDED.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Yeah Dean. If anyone missed it, here is a video from JB about the potential and favorable conditions for this.

http://www.accuweather.com/video/558045 ... nesday.asp

Good Video today!

[Stormcenter]

If anything x-TD5 will make for an interesting weekend and start to the next week especially since things are pretty quiet elsewhere for the moment.

[KWT]

Well I said 'overly' favorable. Sure, we could see some regeneration, but proximity to land will keep it from undergoing RI.

Fair enough that does make sense then, still will be an interesting evolution, not a common set-up by any means!

Models hint at something for sure, just unsure as to how far out into the Gulf it gets, I personally think even a very small distance into the Gulf will be enough to do the trick.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Despite not being on the map above, the low that was TD5 is still being actively tracked in the ATCF system, just like an invest would be. Why is this thread not in the Active Storms forum?

[Ikester]

Cough...ALICIA...Cough

[N2Storms]

[quote="Stormcenter"]If anything x-TD5 will make for an interesting weekend and start to the next week especially since things are pretty quiet elsewhere for the moment.[/quote]



Our local mets don't seem to be at all concerned. Basically saying that we're going to be seeing typical summertime showers with puntuated by periods of sunshine. That doesn't mean they don't think that TD 5's remnants will re-generate. They are of the opinion that if anything does spin up, it'll be we'll to our west and we won't really be dealing w / much. After looking at the model runs, I concur with them. It's going to be off and on wet, but if there is any action, it's going to be from P'cola westward.

My personal opinion is that it will make just off shore and re-gain TD status and then minimal TS status before landfalling somewhere along the Tx / La border.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

High RES EURO has system moving west down the LA. Coast!!