ATL : INVEST 92L - DISCUSSION

[OURAGAN]

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
ABNT20 KNHC 131153
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN JUN 13 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE
FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[OURAGAN]

Does it mean the system is less organized than a few hours ?

[MortisFL]

Slow development. And not bad for a 30% chance.

[Meso]

Nope, just means what it says. The system has neither gotten worse or improved significantly. Any change isn't note-worthy. So basically the same as it was.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Nope, just means what it says. The system has neither gotten worse or improved significantly. Any change isn't note-worthy. So basically the same as it was.

I think when the tops cool toninght we will have TD1

[cycloneye]

The SSD floater is up for 92L,But the problem is that the focus of the image is way north.I assume,they have noticed the error and will fix the orientation.

[Hurricane Andrew]

The SSD floater is up for 92L,But the problem is that the focus of the image is way north.I assume,they have noticed the error and will fix the orientation.

I noticed that but is it just me, or do you see a impressive band coming from the storm?

[cycloneye]

Visible image loop shows banding growing to the NE of the center which implies is organizing more.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... km_visible

[Hurricane Andrew]

And however said it is right, it does look like a WSTPAC TD.

[wxman57]

I do see a NW wind at 15 kts being reported about 200 miles WSW of the disturbance's center. That's indicative of at least a broad LLC having formed. Convection is more concentrated today, another sign of increasing organization. Models still have moderate WSW-W wind shear across the NE Caribbean in its path, though the ECMWF is forecasting a little less shear than yesterday - closer to what the GFS was forecasting. Might have a fair shot at developing over the next 48 hours. Chances increase since I have to fly to San Antonio tomorrow morning to make a presentation to a group of executives for a major oil company and I'll be out-of-pocket as far as being able to assist the hurricane team.

As far as that climatology map which was posted, you really need to just look back to the 1970s when satellite imagery was used to find systems so far out to sea. Prior to satellite, I'm sure there were a number of years with systems developing farther east in June. But, unfortunately, it looks like this is a bad sign of things to come this year.

[KWT]

Visible image loop shows banding growing to the NE of the center which implies is organizing more.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... km_visible

Thats got a good circulation there...the only slight issue I see is some of that stable air lurking to the north of the system, but as lnog as ther system keeps plowing W/WNW its not going to have to deal with that till a little bit down the line...

I think this one may well be one to go...

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track

Mainly west track so far.

AL, 92, 2010061312, , BEST, 0, 67N, 336W, 20, 1011, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

AL, 92, 2010061118, , BEST, 0, 60N, 275W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2010061200, , BEST, 0, 61N, 284W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2010061206, , BEST, 0, 61N, 293W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2010061212, , BEST, 0, 62N, 301W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2010061218, , BEST, 0, 63N, 310W, 25, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 120, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
AL, 92, 2010061300, , BEST, 0, 64N, 319W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 150, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
AL, 92, 2010061306, , BEST, 0, 65N, 327W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2010061312, , BEST, 0, 67N, 336W, 20, 1011, DB,

[Gustywind]

[KWT]

The structure looks decent enough in those images, the only uncertainty is that SAL seems to be starting to get taken into the circulation on the northern side it seems looking at the loops. It may not be too much of an issue though until the shear increases anyway.

Only slowly lifting up, but I'd expect it to gain more latitude now if it is developing a LLC.

[HURAKAN]

805 TWD

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FOCUSED ON A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 07N34W IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC. EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS...THE UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT
FAVORABLE CHARACTERISTICS FOR CONTINUED ORGANIZATION OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS
NOTED IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY THIS MORNING
EXTENDING FROM THE EQUATOR TO 11N BETWEEN 25W-41W. THE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY SURROUNDING THE LOW IS GENERATING NUMEROUS
MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION FROM THE EQUATOR TO 13N
BETWEEN 30W-42W. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
IS CENTERED OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 16N25W AND EXTENDS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SW TO NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
COASTAL SURINAME. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS HELPING TO VENTILATE CONVECTION AND SUSTAIN
LIFT IN THE SURFACE TO MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.

[HURAKAN]

That's 7 hours old

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[bvigal]

1245z - water vapor looks good - not like a June wave!

[cycloneye]

Sandy,that is an WINDSAT from yesterday afternoon as you can see by the time at the bottom (4:08 PM EDT or 20:08 PM UTC)