ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

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Ivanhater
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Re: ATL: Invest 98L - Discussion

#141 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Sep 01, 2010 12:32 am

Long range Canadian take an Earl track north of the Caribbean. Probably change a few times though.

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#142 Postby Vortex » Wed Sep 01, 2010 12:35 am

00Z Nogaps has it crossing barbados....




https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical
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Re: ATL: Invest 98L - Discussion

#143 Postby Vortex » Wed Sep 01, 2010 12:39 am

Then eastern carribean well south of PR. Now were starting to get some model support.





https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical
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Re: ATL: Invest 98L - Discussion

#144 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Sep 01, 2010 12:42 am

I personally didn't think 98L would look this good tonight...

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Re: ATL: Invest 98L - Discussion

#145 Postby blp » Wed Sep 01, 2010 12:43 am

Me neither... Ivan when is the eclipse over?

Ivanhater wrote:I personally didn't think 98L would look this good tonight...

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#146 Postby Vortex » Wed Sep 01, 2010 12:45 am

I second that...It looks very close to td status.
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Re: ATL: Invest 98L - Discussion

#147 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Sep 01, 2010 12:45 am

blp wrote:Me neither... Ivan when is the eclipse over?

Ivanhater wrote:I personally didn't think 98L would look this good tonight...



I'm not sure :think:
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Re: ATL: Invest 98L - Discussion

#148 Postby blp » Wed Sep 01, 2010 12:49 am

I am going with orange at 2am.
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Re: ATL: Invest 98L - Discussion

#149 Postby WeatherEmperor » Wed Sep 01, 2010 1:01 am

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
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Re: ATL: Invest 98L - Discussion

#150 Postby blp » Wed Sep 01, 2010 1:04 am

We have all seen it tonight but I am surprised the NHC went all the way up to 50%. They are also quite bullish on this. Very interesting....

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Last edited by blp on Wed Sep 01, 2010 1:05 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: Invest 98L - Discussion

#151 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Sep 01, 2010 1:05 am

Holy cow...50 percent!!

Forget what I said about waiting for visible :ggreen:
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Re: ATL: Invest 98L - Discussion

#152 Postby Brent » Wed Sep 01, 2010 1:06 am

Wow, I have to say I am shocked at that! Looks like Gaston's gonna be here sooner rather than later.
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Re: ATL: Invest 98L - Discussion

#153 Postby Vortex » Wed Sep 01, 2010 1:08 am

eclipse over shortly and well have the 615utc image within the next half hour.
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#154 Postby Vortex » Wed Sep 01, 2010 1:11 am

only moving 10-15mph and with 5-6 days until it reaches the islands it could be some storm.
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#155 Postby Vortex » Wed Sep 01, 2010 1:53 am

elcipse over....very impressive..what a structure...




http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg
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#156 Postby brunota2003 » Wed Sep 01, 2010 2:02 am

woww...that looks very close to TD status right now. I can see the NHC upgrading to 70% at 8 am if it keeps up the good looks!
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Re: ATL: Invest 98L - Discussion

#157 Postby ColinDelia » Wed Sep 01, 2010 2:59 am

Wow, what a big change since 8 hours ago. Any clear model support yet?

Some 50 "units" of vorticity now. Still needs to expand some and get symmetrical. Pulling away from ITCZ

Image

CAPE has increased over the past 24 hours
http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/jan ... lot_41.gif
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Re:

#158 Postby Gustywind » Wed Sep 01, 2010 4:33 am

HURAKAN wrote:98L looking great and thanks to freetranslation.com for translating the French in the thread!! lol

Ce serais une bonne chose Hurakan, espérons que cela se fasse un jour :)
That could be a good thing Hurakan, let's hope that this will happen one day :)
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#159 Postby KWT » Wed Sep 01, 2010 4:40 am

Its got a decent enough circulation but convection still isn't all that impressive. It certainly deserves the orange though and 50% seems very reasonable.
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Re: ATL: Invest 98L - Discussion

#160 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Sep 01, 2010 4:44 am

Image

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