ATL: PAULA - Models

[xironman]

GDFL kind of lonely having a cane in the Yucatan channel in 78 hours

[GCANE]

Looks like same idea with 00Z Euro.

Moving into Bay of Honduras and then stalling out.

Development not as bullish as GFS.


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... _loop.html

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-op ... =Animation

[GCANE]

Stalling in the Bay of Honduras will keep 98L just south of an UL jet that is forecast to be running just north of the FL Straits.

Given the hot water there, it should be a good spot to spin up.


http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/cor ... ecast.html

[HURAKAN]

Code: Select all

389
WHXX01 KWBC 111044
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1044 UTC MON OCT 11 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982010) 20101011 0600 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        101011  0600   101011  1800   101012  0600   101012  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    14.2N  82.0W   15.0N  83.4W   15.8N  84.9W   16.7N  86.3W
BAMD    14.2N  82.0W   15.0N  83.4W   16.0N  84.9W   17.1N  86.5W
BAMM    14.2N  82.0W   15.0N  83.4W   16.0N  84.8W   16.9N  86.2W
LBAR    14.2N  82.0W   15.0N  83.0W   16.0N  84.4W   17.2N  85.8W
SHIP        25KTS          28KTS          33KTS          41KTS
DSHP        25KTS          25KTS          29KTS          37KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        101013  0600   101014  0600   101015  0600   101016  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    17.3N  87.4W   17.2N  89.2W   15.1N  91.1W   13.7N  93.5W
BAMD    18.0N  87.9W   18.8N  90.1W   18.5N  90.5W   18.5N  91.1W
BAMM    17.4N  87.3W   16.9N  89.3W   14.9N  90.6W   12.9N  92.6W
LBAR    18.6N  86.8W   21.8N  86.2W   25.6N  80.6W   31.5N  66.9W
SHIP        50KTS          62KTS          59KTS          48KTS
DSHP        46KTS          33KTS          27KTS          22KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  14.2N LONCUR =  82.0W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR =   5KT
LATM12 =  13.4N LONM12 =  80.8W DIRM12 = 322DEG SPDM12 =   3KT
LATM24 =  13.0N LONM24 =  80.7W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN

[sunnyday]

One of the models has a big hurricane hitting south Fl on the anniversary of Wilma??? If the margin of error for predictions is 300 miles 3 days out, look how huge the margin of error is here. Seeing the image of that storm over S Fl at this time makes me feel like it won't go that way. Things will probably change later today.
I wish the models wouldn't do that and upset people who don't understand that a storm can miss an area when it is predicted many days out.

This is not intended to be a forecast of many kind--just my opinion.

[Blown Away]

TAFB shows 98L up near Cozumel. Seems the models and TAFB are moving 98L out of the Caribbean a little faster than previous model runs.

[cycloneye]

It also says stationary.

[Blown Away]

:uarrow: It also says stationary.

I know but the TAFB position is farther north than yesterday and some of the 06z models are ejecting 98L faster out of the Caribbean.

[Evil Jeremy]

Does anyone have the 06Z GFDL and HWRF runs yet? They aren't on SFWMD or the FSU site, which is weird, they are normally out by now.

[HURAKAN]

Code: Select all

853
WHXX01 KWBC 111234
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1234 UTC MON OCT 11 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982010) 20101011 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        101011  1200   101012  0000   101012  1200   101013  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMD    15.2N  83.0W   16.1N  84.5W   17.2N  86.1W   18.3N  87.6W
BAMM    15.2N  83.0W   16.1N  84.4W   17.0N  85.9W   18.0N  87.1W
LBAR    15.2N  83.0W   16.5N  84.4W   18.0N  85.9W   19.6N  86.8W
SHIP        25KTS          30KTS          37KTS          46KTS
DSHP        25KTS          30KTS          37KTS          46KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        101013  1200   101014  1200   101015  1200   101016  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMD    19.2N  88.9W   20.7N  90.1W   22.0N  88.6W   24.4N  84.7W
BAMM    18.3N  88.2W   17.7N  89.8W   15.7N  90.8W   14.5N  92.6W
LBAR    21.9N  86.7W   26.1N  80.9W   35.3N  63.8W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        53KTS          59KTS          54KTS          44KTS
DSHP        46KTS          28KTS          27KTS          28KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  15.2N LONCUR =  83.0W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR =   9KT
LATM12 =  13.7N LONM12 =  81.1W DIRM12 = 305DEG SPDM12 =   7KT
LATM24 =  13.2N LONM24 =  80.7W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  250NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN

[WilmingtonSandbar]

I wish the models wouldn't do that and upset people who don't understand that a storm can miss an area when it is predicted many days out.

The models are predictions based on extrapolations of current conditions and forecasts. If they "wouldn't do that", they wouldn't be models. Don't worry though, I am willing to bet 99% of the populace 1) doesn't know (nor do they care at this time) that there is a storm, 2) don't know what the models are, and 3) don't know how to read them. So I doubt that people are upset now.

[Evil Jeremy]

Ok, where are the 06z GFDL and HWRF runs?

[cycloneye]

Ok, where are the 06z GFDL and HWRF runs?

Still not out at this hour. Maybe a malfunction of the site or waiting for the recon information?

[x-y-no]

Ok, where are the 06z GFDL and HWRF runs?

Still not out at this hour. Maybe a malfunction of the site or waiting for the recon information?

I can't find them at PSU either. Very strange.

[blp]

Ok, where are the 06z GFDL and HWRF runs?

Still not out at this hour. Maybe a malfunction of the site or waiting for the recon information?

I can't find them at PSU either. Very strange.

Yea, I can't remember the last time that happened they are usually pretty reliable. I expect we will see a much stronger presentation of the system on both.

[jconsor]

6z GFDL and HWRF weren't run.

Ok, where are the 06z GFDL and HWRF runs?

[Evil Jeremy]

6z GFDL and HWRF weren't run.

Ok, where are the 06z GFDL and HWRF runs?

Any idea why?

[caneseddy]

12z NAM does not do much with it

Pretty much takes it into Yucatan and dies it out there

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[caneseddy]

12Z GFS out to 42 hours and takes it towards Cozumel and the NE tip of Yucatan

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_042l.gif

[SouthDadeFish]

12z NAM does not do much with it

Pretty much takes it into Yucatan and dies it out there

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

But its the NAM I guess it's a possibility.