ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[Gustywind]

[HURAKAN]

I would have lowered the pressure. It's logical to think that it continued to drop after the RECON left based on the continued organization in the sat images.

[SkeetoBite]

[Florida1118]

The NHC seems confident on a curve before the US.

[CrazyC83]

Recon found a 968mb extrapolated pressure (from a high altitude). Actual pressure is probably around 972mb.

[artist]

[

hey skeetobite! Good to see you around and thanks for sharing your forecast map with us. I know that will be reassuring to our friends on the islands to a certain degree.

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Well looks like most of the hurricane force winds will stay north of puerto Rico and most of the northern leewards. Track seems to suggest north of the islands still. When you think about it, if you look at the nhc track from several days ago it may end up tracking a bit more to the south but really the error is not that large at all.

As for this stalling off the east coast of the us business not happening! Certainty in the track as far as the us is concerned is actually quite high. I really think the core hurricane force winds will not impact anybody along the eastern seaboard. Should stay offshore. In fact I bet you a noreaster is going to look far worse than the effects of Earl for the northeast us. Perhaps Canada may have some more effects.

[Swimdude]

I'm not surprised to see the NHC up the peak intensity forecast during this advisory (the peak is now 115 kts, whereas they had hovered from 100-105 kts for quite awhile). I believe this is much more likely to transpire, especially given the steady strengthening today, and with little-to-no inhibiting factors for the next 72 hours or so. Good call.

[UpTheCreek]

Did they just move the cone further east?

Yes.

[wxman57]

IMO, it looks like Earl has resumed a mostly west motion after moving WNW earlier today, or am I seeing things?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

I think the convective burst on the north side gives that illusion, but the center hasn't gained much latitude.

Yes, still moving WNW.

[emeraldislencguy]

the track is looking better for coastal nc
is there any evidence to support any move more to the west

[CrazyC83]

Winds have not yet caught up to the pressure...

[cycloneye]

Considering the deepening that Earl is going thru, the 5 PM advisory is good news for the islands,hurricane force winds would stay offshore as those are confined 50 miles around the eye.

[EyELeSs1]

Winds have not yet caught up to the pressure...

doesn't seem so... yet...

205730 1736N 05942W 6390 03642 9681 +126 +082 143006 009 024 001 00

center seems a bit to the south of the 'official' position? unless they missed it slightly to the south?

[Aric Dunn]

eye still fairly ragged.. its probably back to about 280 though ..

[CrazyC83]

Winds have not yet caught up to the pressure...

doesn't seem so... yet...

205730 1736N 05942W 6390 03642 9681 +126 +082 143006 009 024 001 00

center seems a bit to the south of the 'official' position? unless they missed it slightly to the south?

That is 17.6N 59.7W.

[Evil Jeremy]

eye still fairly ragged.. its probably back to about 280 though ..

http://img820.imageshack.us/img820/5729 ... 860272.gif

Maybe its the ragged eye, but I see WNW motion at the start of the loop and WSW motion at the end.

[artist]

Considering the deepening that Earl is going thru, the 5 PM advisory is good news for the islands,hurricane force winds would stay offshore as those are confined 50 miles around the eye.

yeah, that is very good news Luis. I hope it keeps moving further and further to the right! With recon in there now, hopefully we will know more soon.

[breaking wind]

Positive news with the forecast track of Earl splitting the uprights between the Carolinas and Bermuda. Definitely not out of the woods but the odds of a US landfall are dropping with every advisory. Earl's eye may never see land except maybe easternmost canada and it would have greatly weakened by that point. Nothing better than an uneventful hurricane season.

[Aric Dunn]

eye still fairly ragged.. its probably back to about 280 though ..

http://img820.imageshack.us/img820/5729 ... 860272.gif

Maybe its the ragged eye, but I see WNW motion at the start of the loop and WSW motion at the end.

would not quite say WSW .. but west is plausible.. and it is quite clear at the beginning of the loop of a wnw motion