ATL: KARL - Ex-Hurricane - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

nhc totally nailed the track. wnw once it left the yucatan, w over the b.o.c., wsw right before landfall.they were predicting this 2 days ago. may not have been exactly where they thought it was gonna go 48 hr. ago, but the general synoptics were/are sound. now for the intensity, well idk if we'll ever get that down. too many variables.

I wouldn't call this "totally nailing the track"

[Blown Away]

Latest METAR report from Veracruz:
southern wind 30kt, gust 40kt, 997 mb

Southern wind? Is Veracruz E of the center now?

edit: east

[Vortmax1]

Great graphic Hurakan!
Thanks.

[brunota2003]

Is the Recon aircraft missing the area of lowest pressure, or is Karl falling apart rapidly? The last three VDMs went from 959 to 967 to 972?

[cycloneye]

Is the Recon aircraft missing the area of lowest pressure, or is Karl falling apart rapidly? The last three VDMs went from 959 to 967 to 972?

Part of the circulation is already over the 18,000 feet mountains so is weakening.

[artist]

the winds are blowing hard and steady in Veracruz. They just showed it on their tv station.

[Vortmax1]

Is the Recon aircraft missing the area of lowest pressure, or is Karl falling apart rapidly? The last three VDMs went from 959 to 967 to 972?

They can only sample what is still offshore...a lot of the circulation is already inland.

[brunota2003]

Is the Recon aircraft missing the area of lowest pressure, or is Karl falling apart rapidly? The last three VDMs went from 959 to 967 to 972?

Part of the circulation is already over the 18,000 feet mountains so is weakening.

Ah...he ran out of room to roam. That is good, though...hopefully he will weaken at least a little before finally coming ashore

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[brunota2003]

Is the Recon aircraft missing the area of lowest pressure, or is Karl falling apart rapidly? The last three VDMs went from 959 to 967 to 972?

They can only sample what is still offshore...a lot of the circulation is already inland.

While true, unless he has made landfall or the pressure center itself has shifted, they should be able to make a center fix...once they can no longer do that, they'll go home.

[Vortmax1]

Based on Hurakan's latest graphic I would say that is landfall so I doubt if you're going to get much more out of RECON on this one.

[HURAKAN]

model and track verification = fail! lol

[HURAKAN]

largest hurricane wind field ever!!! lol fail

[Brent]

HURRICANE KARL TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
1200 PM CDT FRI SEP 17 2010

...KARL MAKES LANDFALL ON THE SOUTHWEST GULF COAST OF MEXICO...

MEXICAN RADAR OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE
CENTER OF HURRICANE KARL MADE LANDFALL ON THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
MEXICO ABOUT 10 MILES...15 KM...NORTH OF VERACRUZ MEXICO NEAR 1130
AM CDT...1630 UTC. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT LANDFALL WERE
ESTIMATED TO BE 115 MPH...185 KM/HR.

SUMMARY OF 1130 AM CDT...1630 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 96.2W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM N OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...29.82 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[littlevince]

[blazess556]

Station VERV4 - Veracruz Harbor, Mexico recorded a gust of 82 knots at 11:33 am cdt.

[Chacor]

So it looks like Karl actually weakened before landfall, from 105 to 100 knots.

[Vortmax1]

The eye of Karl was only eight nautical miles across at landfall.
Landfall was 10 miles North of Veracruz...sounds like a bumpy ride for those people.

[CrazyC83]

976mb and 100 kt? That seems unlikely. I would guess about 90 kt for landfall intensity.

[Chacor]

At this point the last report out of MMVR (Veracruz) was at 1654 UTC. South wind, 46 mph, gusts to 58 mph, 997 mbar.