ATL: Ex COLIN - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

It took about 48 hours for Colin to regain the LLC. Conditions are OK but not great now.

[Dean4Storms]

Looking much better, but still in a fist fight with that ULL!!

[HURAKAN]

It took about 48 hours for Colin to regain the LLC. Conditions are OK but not great now.

If we had QuikSCAT or RECON during the night or overnight hours, it would have occurred earlier. The NHC took 48 hours, not Colin.

[srainhoutx]

I miss QuikSCAT as well Sandy.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Fego]

For those interested, here some Bermuda webcams links.


http://www.weather.bm/webcam.html
http://www.riyachting.com/newport-rhode ... large.html
http://www.riyachting.com/newport-rhode ... large.html
http://www.riyachting.com/newport-rhode ... large.html

[HURAKAN]

Colin's rain already approaching Bermuda

Link - http://www.weather.bm/radarLarge.asp

[CrazyC83]

Seriously, we all miss QuikSCAT after this one.

As for the timeline, I agree that it probably was a TS by 1200Z today. That would be 42 hours after what I would put as the kill point (1800Z Tuesday).

[HURAKAN]

You can even make a point that it could have regained the LLC last night. When RECON left, it had already measured 196 winds, or SSW. After that, convection exploded like it hasn't done before or since. I think Colin has been a tropical storm since at least the overnight hours. It's now the NHC to judge that in the final report.

[supercane]

Wow, still the NHC site is out since 4:28 PM EDT. It has to be a major failure on the net.

Not sure that an hour counts as a major failure, but it is occurring at a rather inopportune time. Could this also be the reason that there has been no further recon data?

FYI, a 31-day month contains 744 hr. So if the net is down 2 hr, (744-2)/744 = 742/744 = 99.73% uptime. Just goes to show you how much we depend on the internet that even an hour down seems interminable.

[cycloneye]

Wow, still the NHC site is out since 4:28 PM EDT. It has to be a major failure on the net.

Not sure that an hour counts as a major failure, but it is occurring at a rather inopportune time. Could this also be the reason that there has been no further recon data?

FYI, a 31-day month contains 744 hr. So if the net is down 2 hr, (744-2)/744 = 742/744 = 99.73% uptime. Just goes to show you how much we depend on the internet that even an hour down seems interminable.

Yes,the whole site is down including the recon products.

[KWT]

Yeah it probably was a TS about 06z IMO, the early morning vis imagery showed the LLC quite nicely, though given where it is I'm sure the extra 6-12hrs isn't a huge deal.

Won't be long before the rain arrives at Bermuda, I'd imagine given the upper divergence aloft this will be quite a wet storm for them.

[Cookie]

could the uk be in line to get the remnants of this down the line?

[HURAKAN]

BWS

[wxman57]

It took about 48 hours for Colin to regain the LLC. Conditions are OK but not great now.

If we had QuikSCAT or RECON during the night or overnight hours, it would have occurred earlier. The NHC took 48 hours, not Colin.

Well, there wasn't QS or recon on Monday night when it was upgraded to a TS based solely on Dvorak estimates. But the problem was that Dvorak assumes there is an LLC because of observed mid level rotation, which was probably not present. It's interesting that current Dvorak is 1.5, lower than the estimates on Tuesday morning when it was upgraded. But there's currently no question of an LLC and there hasn't been all day. Fortunately, it will only be a threat to Bermuda. By the time it reaches Newfoundland, there may not be much left of it.

[KWT]

If there is one place that can handle a system of nearly any strength, its certainly Bermuda. They probably won't be far off from this one from the looks of things, certainly going to be getting rather wet there....but at least we will get a good radar look at the system as it gets closer.

[CrazyC83]

Could the HPC take over if the NHC site continues to be down, or is it just external access down?

[meebo]

U r rite crazy. Hope the NHC is nah afraid to ask the HPC for urgent help!

[plasticup]

Long time lurker, first time poster. I grew up in Bermuda, and KWT's post made me want to register and reply.

If there is one place that can handle a system of nearly any strength, its certainly Bermuda.

When the media breathlessly pants that impending super-hurricane-of-death has turned out to sea, we in Bermuda give a little sigh because "out to sea" typically means "right over Bermuda". But we also give a wry smile, because big ol' storms make us feel badass. When Fabian hit us in 2003, the eyewall passed over my house and we didn't even lose power. To be fair, the Category 4 storm caused some damage, but people still smile about it. The last job I worked in Bermuda was at a bank, and we didn't even close when Hurricane Bertha swept through in 2008. People just kept coming in with broken umbrellas.

So yeah, little Colin shouldn't cause too much trouble

[Recurve]

FYI: was trying to get through to a number of NOAA sites this afternoon, it seems to be affecting more than the NHC.