ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[KWT]

Yeah I think this will be a Mexicdo storm, but more on the north side of Mexico than south...the ECM doesn't develop it at all till it starts to move overland and thus is probably too far south in the first 48hrs...

I think the NHC probably deciding whether to go TD or Alex.

[greg_kfdm_tv]

Certainly a tropical depression now based on recon.....could upgrade to Alex at any time.

[tailgater]

Lots of west winds of up to 20kts

[Air Force Met]

With its satellite appearance, pressure and winds sustained over 35mph there has to be a west wind somewhere.

Even if there is a west wind, its not a depression IMO. It certainly doesn't have a well defined closed LLC.

Enough west winds for you yet?

All they had to do was head a little further south (think I said 30 miles or so)...now that they went down to 16N...we got winds from the west at 23 kts...that's pretty well defined.

[HurrMark]

I still like an idea of an eventual landfall well south of Brownsville...around Tampico. Ridge to the north is just too strong and I do not see the models that turn Alex to be north being correct. Also, it already is far south in the Gulf of Honduras and is not gaining much latitude as it moves west-northwest.

I agree Chief!

Third the motion...likely Mexico bound.

[HURAKAN]

[BigA]

Wow, they found a whole slew of west winds when they went a bit south. No question now that this should be a classified system.

[tolakram]

Looks like the center was further west than they thought, so now it's time to turn around and make another run at it.

[TheBurn]

Oh my... it sure looks like it's happening!

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html

Pretty impressive seeing both 93L/Alex and 94L in the shot, only 3.5 weeks into the season.

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[ConvergenceZone]

Third the motion...likely Mexico bound.

Yea, it seems pretty unanimous regarding a Mexico landfall

Of couse once it forms, we will have the wobble wars starting....

[CrazyC83]

I still like an idea of an eventual landfall well south of Brownsville...around Tampico. Ridge to the north is just too strong and I do not see the models that turn Alex to be north being correct. Also, it already is far south in the Gulf of Honduras and is not gaining much latitude as it moves west-northwest.

I agree Chief!

Third the motion...likely Mexico bound.

First landfall might even be in Belize.

[AdamFirst]

I dont know if my eyes are deceiving me but it does look like 93L is slowly scooting northwest...but it's always hard to tell with these things.

[KWT]

Yep looks a little south of what expected, brings credence to the ECM solution, though I think the 12z ECM was too far to the south in the end...

[tolakram]

I'm a little shocked at just how many west winds where found and how much better this is looking.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

This is not a forecast but I don't want to be caught with my disclaimer down.

Conditions down there are in record territory, I wonder just how fast this thing can develop?

[RL3AO]

Um...watch out Belize?

[TheBurn]

[Comanche]

I'm a little shocked at just how many west winds where found and how much better this is looking.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

This is not a forecast but I don't want to be caught with my disclaimer down.

Conditions down there are in record territory, I wonder just how fast this thing can develop?

probably not as good as it could have if it were a little north, all that landmass south **should** have an impact on strengthening ability.

[KWT]

Um...watch out Belize?

Quite possible given the center appears to be only a little bit north of Houndras, though land fricition maybe giving a false indicator.

That being said I think it probably will lift out to the WNW/NW and it should hit S.Yucatan...

[Nimbus]

If the models haven't changed the NHC should not have any trouble putting this out as the seasons first tropical storm by 8PM. Even if they are not sure of the trough strength and timing they can start with warnings for the Yucatan then sweep the track up the Mexican coast to texas and beyond if necessary.

[ConvergenceZone]

Once it crosses the land, it's not going to to have much time over water after that, so I don't expect a cane out of it. It could develop back into a tropical storm though again, even after crossing land.